Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士
@AlexGabuev · joined 30 Jan 2015
Director of Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin, part of @CarnegieEndow. Senior Advisor @ASG.
43 611Followers
2 631Following
6 803Posts total
457KViews on collected posts
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"It is not too late to design a set of carrots and sticks for Russia and Ukraine to restore the free passage of agricultural goods. Reversing this aspect of the conflict could be more realistic than trying to end the war altogether." My latest in @FT. https://t.co/MTxVmtQXAu
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"There are countries that cannot set the wider international agenda but can still make a difference. These might be described as “mini-middle powers”: states with limited overall power but real leverage in a few areas."
My colleague @ZaurShiriyev in @FT.
https://t.co/E0J3gFQtNn
2K views · 11 likes
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A super timely piece of mosaic that Alexandra Prokopenko (@amenka) has assembled in her forthcoming book. This one deals with potential mobilization in Russia.
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"Russia’s problems are real, but the country is nonetheless capable of sustaining the conflict... The war, then, is almost certain to drag on."
With my brilliant @CarnegieEndow colleagues @amenka and @Stanovaya in @ForeignAffairs. https://t.co/pyxNBFoGax
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@AlexGabuev @ForeignAffairs It’s really the most obvious of outcomes when both have a common adversary and the west has no diplomatic skill
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19/ Western leaders must build a long-term strategy that will help maintain peace by accounting for all the ramifications of having to compete with China and Russia simultaneously. I offer some avenues for thinking about it that we at @CarnegieEndow plan to explore.
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20/ For more nuance and data, read the whole piece at @ForeignAffairs. More research on this essential, but still underexplored topic will be coming from @CarnegieEndow global team. https://t.co/qggwfIqVyL
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17/ Beijing’s and Moscow’s dealings over the last 2 years have clearly demonstrated the limits of Western coercive power and ability of China to provide hedging options to countries seeking to decrease dependence on the West. This will have a lasting impact on the global order.
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18/ Western policymakers should abandon the idea that they can drive a wedge between China and Russia. Certainly, 🇨🇳🇷🇺 relationship is not without its strains, but for now, however, Beijing and Moscow have demonstrated a remarkable ability to manage their differences.
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14/ Military-to-military cooperation with 🇷🇺 is an important asset for 🇨🇳. There is still potential to step up their intelligence sharing, conduct joint cyber-operations to steal sensitive Western government or commercial data, and coordinate their influence operations.
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16/ To be sure, vassalage to China will not necessarily constitute full and unconditional subordination of Moscow to Beijing. Even North Korea, which depends on 🇨🇳for nearly every aspect of its security and economy, has some maneuvering space when it comes to its giant neighbor.
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15/ What about the asymmetry that characterizes 🇨🇳🇷🇺 relations? Sure, the last 2 years have exacerbated it, and the Kremlin is not blind to this fact. But Russia does not have much choice as long as Putin needs Chinese support to fight his 🇺🇦 war, which has become an obsession.
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13/ 🇷🇺 also has some military technologies that 🇨🇳 still needs, despite the superior sophistication of Chinese defense manufacturing. These include S-500 surface-to-air missiles, engines for modern fighter jets, stealthier submarines, and technologies for underwater warfare.
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12/ Russia is becoming ever more important for Chinese manufacturers, given unstable domestic demand and decreasing exports to markets in the West. And since 70% of 🇨🇳🇷🇺 $240b/year trade is settled in yuan, Beijing can treat it as a flagship project for RMB internationalization.
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11/ This flow of Russian resources boosts China’s energy and food security while decreasing its dependency on vulnerable maritime routes. It also increases the competitiveness of Chinese manufacturing by lowering energy costs.
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9/ For its part, China has also come to see Russia as part of a fundamental geopolitical realignment. After 8 years of @realDonaldTrump & @JoeBiden, Beijing is convinced that 🇨🇳 confrontation with 🇺🇸 is bound to deepen, regardless of who occupies the White House.
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10/ This is why Beijing thinks it needs all the partners it can get, since the 🇺🇸 enjoys a huge advantage in its large network of resourceful allies. And no other power can bring as much to China’s table as Russia, particularly right now.
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8/ There is growing evidence that for the first time in Russian history, members of the Russian elite and their children have started to learn Mandarin, look for education opportunities in mainland China and Hong Kong, and park their money in China and broader Asia.
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7/ Ties to 🇨🇳 are becoming increasingly important for 🇷🇺 elites in crafting futures for themselves and their offspring. Most of these figures are now under sanctions, with the possibility of keeping their wealth in the West or sending their children for education foreclosed.
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4/ War has become the organizing principle of Putin's foreign policy. He now assesses every relationship through a lens of 3 considerations: whether this relationship can help on the battlefield in 🇺🇦, whether it can help to sustain 🇷🇺 economy and circumvent sanctions, and...
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6/ China backfills 🇷🇺 war machine with components, is the major export market, source of critical technology and currency for settling foreign trade. Helping to boost 🇨🇳 military might, in Kremlin's view, is a sure way to avenge 🇺🇸 for helping to kill Russian soldiers in Ukraine.
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5/ ...whether it can help Moscow push back against the West and punish 🇺🇸 and its allies for supporting Kyiv. Relationship with 🇨🇳 checks all three boxes. Truth is: there is simply no other country than China that can do all that on such a scale for Russia.
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2/ Even before Crimea annexation in 2014 and February 24, 2022, Moscow and Beijing have been on a steady path to improve and deepen their ties. Driving forces include delimitation of 🇨🇳🇷🇺 border, economic complementarity, and deepening compatibility of the two political regimes.
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3/ Russia's full-blown invasion of Ukraine has provided a qualitative leap to what has been an incremental qualitative improvement before 2022. China and Russia are more firmly aligned now than at any time since the 1950s. Why is that?
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The deepening of 🇨🇳🇷🇺 alignment is one of the most consequential geopolitical outcomes of Russia's war against Ukraine. How so, and why is this important? I wrote about it in a new essay for @ForeignAffairs. Some key takeaways in a🧵1/20 https://t.co/qggwfIqVyL
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Im Vergleich zu Konten gleicher Größe
4 Beiträge aus den letzten 90 Tagen, verglichen mit der Größenklasse 10K–100K Follower. wird weit gezeigt, aber nur wenige dieser Zuschauer reagieren.
Medianaufrufe5 054dieses Konto924Median für 10K–100K
Reichweite, %11.59%dieses Konto3.62%Median für 10K–100K
Interaktion, %0.60%dieses Konto1.52%Median für 10K–100K
| Kennzahl | Dieses Konto | Median für 10K–100K | Verhältnis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medianaufrufe pro Beitrag | 5 054 | 924 | 5.47× |
| Reichweite (Aufrufe ÷ Follower) | 11.59% | 3.62% | 3.20× |
| Interaktionsrate | 0.60% | 1.52% | 0.39× |
Weitere Konten dieser Größe → Mit einem anderen Konto vergleichen → Wie diese Vergleichswerte entstehen →
Growth & engagement
How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.
Views per post
7.5K9 Apr
8.4K
7K
7.6K
7.8K
8K
7.1K
6.8K
7.1K
1.5K
13.9K1 Aug
7.2K17 Aug
2K
2.9K19 Aug
Last 14 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.
Engagement rate per post
1.07%9 Apr
0.96%
1.06%
1.04%
0.81%
1.20%
1.10%
1.19%
1.13%
3.02%
0.51%1 Aug
0.36%17 Aug
0.69%
1.02%19 Aug
Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views. Median for 10K–100K accounts is 1.52%.
What the audience does
Likes70.7%2 387 in total
Reposts13.1%441 in total
Replies3.0%100 in total
Bookmarks13.3%449 in total
Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.
The follower curve appears once this account has two daily snapshots — we take one a day, and this one is on its first.
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