Warren Pies ✓
@WarrenPies · FL · joined 04 Feb 2014
Founder @3F_Research | PM $RAA | $FCTE | Formerly with Ned Davis Research | Recovering Attorney (step 4) - Not investment advice
78 878Followers
1 860Following
10 451Posts total
2.6MViews on collected posts
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@WarrenPies If they hiked 300bps next meeting, long end rates would for sure go down
Its a debate of magnitude
The Fed is hiking now but they are still behind the curve: not hiking enough
When they actually get restrictive, long end rates will go down bc long end prices for
4K views · 28 likes
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@WarrenPies A couple of those bond mafiosi that were harassing me last week have gone VERY quiet... https://t.co/0iehLiCsW3
5K views · 85 likes
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GIF
@WarrenPies No, imagine where the long end would be today if they had passed last week and you had no faith at all that they would actually hike rates even now.
1.6K views · 22 likes
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Can we bury the "hike to control the long end" thesis?
38.5K views · 567 likes
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Talked the Fed, NFP and AI with @LesliePicker and @carlquintanilla
Link below...Enjoyed the conversation!
31.9K views · 139 likes
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A 'political hiccup' is the new big risk to the AI trade, says @3F_Research co-founder @WarrenPies:
https://t.co/R66zqj2RjH
29.3K views · 21 likes
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The first VLCC (9734642) loading in North Sea to China since April. Dated Brent gets a boost https://t.co/q4IxmpMW1T
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This was as dovish as Waller could be.
Historically, I have liked how Waller conducts himself on the FOMC. But, hinging policy decisions on one print is a sign of how much political pressure the committee is feeling.
127.2K views · 681 likes
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Waller signals he would hike in September if upcoming CPI signals a stall in disinflation. https://t.co/4f3eMYU5s0
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@WarrenPies It's possible they hike in September and risk crashes out and they (FED or UST) have to quickly step in to fix things, which gives us the next leg up in risk assets.
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@WarrenPies These high energy prices are going to weigh heavily on the economy.
You think the Fed will hike into that?
I get the higher prices and inflation on the surface, but it seems the consumer will already be struggling below the surface.
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@WarrenPies But a hike would increase the deficit, especially now that Bessent is issuing new short-term debt to buy back the 20-yrs.
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Probably even more relevant is the middle distillate/product breakout... https://t.co/ap2Qf9djiw
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@WarrenPies Which is ironic because hiking rates into an energy driven supply shock does not have a good historical track record of success
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No one on the FOMC will say this explicitly, but there will be no stopping the momentum toward a hike if oil remains this high going into the September meeting.
Dec oil <$1 from new highs.
If oil is this high, there is no realistic CPI/PPI/NFP number that will stop a hike. http
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Historically, during soft landings, the S&P 500 rips in 6 months leading into a first Fed cut.
Would put the market at 5,200 by May...
First time speaking w/ the great @ScottWapnerCNBC was a blast! https://t.co/IcXze3YFkl
978.3K views · 628 likes
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"Our first [rate] cut [forecast] is for May," says @3f_research's @warrenpies https://t.co/EWKsIRWvFJ
945.3K views · 66 likes
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2:32
Frente a cuentas del mismo tamaño
16 publicaciones de los últimos 90 días, junto al rango de 10K–100K seguidores. llega a mucha gente, pero pocos de esos espectadores reaccionan.
Visualizaciones medianas19 716esta cuenta924mediana de 10K–100K
Alcance, %25.00%esta cuenta3.62%mediana de 10K–100K
Interacción, %0.96%esta cuenta1.52%mediana de 10K–100K
| Métrica | Esta cuenta | Mediana de 10K–100K | Proporción |
|---|---|---|---|
| Visualizaciones medianas por publicación | 19 716 | 924 | 21.3× |
| Alcance (visualizaciones ÷ seguidores) | 25.00% | 3.62% | 6.90× |
| Tasa de interacción | 0.96% | 1.52% | 0.63× |
Otras cuentas de este rango → Comparar con otra cuenta → Cómo se construyen estas referencias →
Growth & engagement
How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.
Views per post
10.1K1 Sep
127
130
422 Sep
154K3 Sep
127.2K
56.1K
38.4K
29.3K4 Sep
31.9K
38.5K23 Sep
1.6K
5K
4K
Last 14 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.
Engagement rate per post
1.14%1 Sep
0.79%
1.54%
2.38%2 Sep
0.17%3 Sep
0.62%
0.46%
1.30%
0.10%4 Sep
0.51%
1.70%23 Sep
1.52%
1.74%
0.77%
Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views. Median for 10K–100K accounts is 1.52%.
What the audience does
Likes74.9%4 271 in total
Reposts7.2%411 in total
Replies6.5%369 in total
Quotes1.6%90 in total
Bookmarks9.9%563 in total
Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.
The follower curve appears once this account has two daily snapshots — we take one a day, and this one is on its first.
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