tweetindex
ES

fin ✓

@fi56622380 · joined 15 Mar 2022

立场不重要,事物的运行逻辑和内在规律才是更值得关注的部分 | 读过三个不同专业的学位,体验过两个大洲的尘世生活,设计过一次火星车芯片,还没有去看过心心念念的冰川

77 596Followers
525Following
4 122Posts total
5.5MViews on collected posts

Últimas publicaciones

AI半导体终局推演2026(III) AI半导体基建期为什么比互联网基建期更长? Coding场景之后的下一个模型ARR营收增长点在哪里? AI基建会不会过度建设?Capex是不是泡沫?经济账能算的过来吗? 开源模型和闭源的格局如何?对闭源模型的冲击会如何演进? 本文尝试推演这几个问题背后的逻辑 https://t.co/HIZLnRiSxn
240.7K views · 775 likes · 192 reposts · 95 replies Open on X →
https://t.co/Wrfh9lUhOa 947.5K views · 2.5K likes · 435 reposts · 65 replies Open on X →
https://t.co/1nBmcclbXt 77K views · 240 likes · 39 reposts · 14 replies Open on X →
@fi56622380 我们再换句话说 取一个未来时间节点要花在无限涨价存储上的钱 如果已经大于目前ai模型的整个可寻址市场了(全球程序员的工资,假设所有公司开除所有的swe),到哪里去找付费给存储公司的钱呢?fin大有没有从支付能力也就是钱的角度考虑过这个问题。 11.2K views · 13 likes · 0 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →
@fi56622380 我现在最大的担忧是存储这么涨价,收入端被开源蒸馏模型严重限制,各大厂控制token开支;作为缓冲垫的hyperscalar fcf归零,走到了摧毁股东价值(谷歌增发)和提现信用(发债导致cds走阔)的地步 21.6K views · 64 likes · 2 reposts · 3 replies Open on X →
@fi56622380 太牛了这文章,打消了很多疑惑,昨天之前还在疑虑。另外 fin 大,hdd 足够垄断,会不会也不错。 16.9K views · 23 likes · 0 reposts · 3 replies Open on X →
AI半导体终局推演2026(II) 当半导体结构性演进到AI推理主线,内存和存储成为了最大瓶颈,市场对内存和存储最大的怀疑就是: HBM/DRAM/SSD会不会摆脱传统周期性? 依赖HBM指数增长的GPU架构路线进化路线,会不会停止?什么时候停止? 长鑫扩产的影响有多大?会不会把这个市场重新带入周期泥潭? https://t.co/cNQYqRNkYt
1.4M views · 2.4K likes · 693 reposts · 201 replies Open on X →
AI半导体终局推演2026(I) 当新token经济学范式从GPU算力转移到HBM 本文从从GPU架构进化路线本质出发,解释这个市场长久以来担心的问题: 每个GPU的HBM内存需求为什么一定会是指数增长,为什么HBM需求指数增长不会停滞? 并推导token经济学在当前架构下第一性原理:token吞吐 = HBM size X HBM BW带宽 https://t.co/yVGGMyv17R
991.2K views · 1.2K likes · 367 reposts · 80 replies Open on X →
@fi56622380 Agentic AI 给 CPU 带来的增长是不是只是一个线性增长,而且未来可能还会有潜在的替代? 因为 CPU 需求来自工程低效而非模型 scaling law 驱动;长期随着 runtime 优化与模型内化,CPU 占比会下降 fin大怎么看? 6.2K views · 4 likes · 1 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →
@fi56622380 Do you really think TPU v8 will fall behind VR just because it doesn’t use HBM4? And I’ve heard several CSPs are exploring Intel’s EMIB recently… do you still expect CoWoS to remain a bottleneck? 12.8K views · 34 likes · 4 reposts · 4 replies Open on X →
回顾2025年半导体市场,真的是有太多太多精彩的故事,最大的主题就是: AI需求驱动导致半导体基建的估值体系重构 + 产业链的价值分配重写 从2024年开始,半导体基建正在飞速吞噬整个IT产业利润,SP500里半导体净利润EPS在IT行业里占比,在两年时间从不到20%上升了到了40%,而且还在呈加速上升姿态 https://t.co/OAFOULgBFX
1.1M views · 1.4K likes · 410 reposts · 103 replies Open on X →
芯片只有AI火热,半导体的2024年基本延续了2023这个基调 只要蹭上AI相关的叙事,股价增长表现都是接近翻倍或者更高,毕竟这是确定性的增长机会,PE都会给的很有想象力 蹭AI失败典型就是高通,微软的recall功能跳票,导致AIPC/端侧LLM叙事直接破产,股价高点下跌不少,就算赢了跟ARM的官司也无济于事 https://t.co/xVqSUYkdZ4
https://x.com/StockSavvyShay/status/1872991023460450524
644.6K views · 390 likes · 94 reposts · 30 replies Open on X →

Frente a cuentas del mismo tamaño

2 publicaciones de los últimos 90 días, junto al rango de 10K–100K seguidores. llega a mucha gente, pero pocos de esos espectadores reaccionan.

Visualizaciones medianas594 142esta cuenta924mediana de 10K–100K
Alcance, %765.69%esta cuenta3.62%mediana de 10K–100K
Interacción, %0.38%esta cuenta1.52%mediana de 10K–100K
MétricaEsta cuentaMediana de 10K–100KProporción
Visualizaciones medianas por publicación594 142924643×
Alcance (visualizaciones ÷ seguidores)7.7× audience3.62%212×
Tasa de interacción0.38%1.52%0.25×

Otras cuentas de este rango →   Comparar con otra cuenta →   Cómo se construyen estas referencias →

Growth & engagement

How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.

Views per post

644.6K6 Jan
1.1M1 Dec
12.8K
6.2K
991.2K29 Apr
1.4M25 Jun
16.9K
21.6K
11.2K
77K
947.5K27 Aug
240.7K29 Aug

Last 12 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.

Engagement rate per post

0.08%6 Jan
0.17%1 Dec
0.33%
0.10%
0.17%29 Apr
0.24%25 Jun
0.15%
0.32%
0.12%
0.38%
0.31%27 Aug
0.44%29 Aug

Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views. Median for 10K–100K accounts is 1.52%.

What the audience does

Likes33.5%9 058 in total
Reposts8.3%2 237 in total
Replies2.2%600 in total
Bookmarks56.0%15 143 in total

Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.

The follower curve appears once this account has two daily snapshots — we take one a day, and this one is on its first.

Cuentas similares