hcburger ✓
@hcburger1 · joined 18 Jul 2019
Empiricist.
12 612Followers
589Following
2 301Posts total
180.2KViews on collected posts
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@elonmusk have you considered space-based btc mining for @SpaceX? You get a percentage of the btc network transaction fees (and newly minted coins) forever! Compared to AI datacenters: 1. Much simpler chips needed 2. MUCH lower bandwidth requirements 3. More radiation tolerance.
1.3K views · 20 likes
· 2 reposts · 2 replies
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Btw I'm American and don't adhere to the "European mindset" (not that it matters) 🙂
4.8K views · 35 likes
· 3 reposts · 5 replies
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It is sad to see statements like the below trying to convince people that faster growth than the power-law suggests is coming. Please do not expect anything like what this person is saying. Similar callls have been wrong in the past and will be wrong again. https://t.co/5OSAvm93g
9.2K views · 52 likes
· 6 reposts · 4 replies
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It is not a good idea to expect bitcoin to outperform the power-law (e.g. exponential, "omega candle"). I have made the same warning, with the same graphs (minus data not available at the time) in March 2021, and was right.
https://t.co/HWPUAeWZW6
4.6K views · 18 likes
· 0 reposts · 1 replies
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Source of the original plot (Dec 2019). My argument was that people expect non-diminishing returns, for which there is no basis. It seems that people STILL expect non-diminishing or even accelerating returns.
https://t.co/wOnqhkh2Cj
4.5K views · 22 likes
· 0 reposts · 1 replies
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Another prediction (this time from Sep 2019) with new data filled in. The price came close to the bottom in 2020 and 2022, but never broke it. Bitcoin's price follows a time-based power-law. https://t.co/mDvzoqXShQ
13.4K views · 74 likes
· 9 reposts · 5 replies
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#btc How it started vs how it's going. Same plot, 5 years later, with new price data in red (the forecast is unmodified). The time-based power-law has held up remarkably well and the price is crossing the trend line once again. Note that I had to extend the x-axis. https://t.co/E
66.7K views · 260 likes
· 33 reposts · 27 replies
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In this video, Niko and I discuss the power-law. Niko noticeably spent a lot of time thinking about the power-law and asked interesting questions. Thanks for having me, @NikoJilch!
The video is in German but Youtube's autotranslate works great.
10.4K views · 62 likes
· 11 reposts · 6 replies
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Können wir den Weg von #Bitcoin auf 100.000 oder 1 Mio. Dollar jetzt schon sehen??
Viel Spaß mit der Folge zum Power Law mit @hcburger1 🧡
https://t.co/iNOBOtq90j https://t.co/zr1hSevW1H
10K views · 100 likes
· 11 reposts · 2 replies
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It's exactly the opposite. The whole purpose of bitcoin as a trust-minimized asset is to create trustworthy transactions. We cannot have trust if some parties can arbitrarily confiscate and inflate.
7.3K views · 41 likes
· 6 reposts · 2 replies
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#btc How it started vs how it's going. Same plot, more than 4 years later, with new price data in red (the forecast is unmodified).
The time-based power-law has held up remarkably well and the price is crossing the trend line once again. https://t.co/Ro3yRidzvx
46.8K views · 221 likes
· 27 reposts · 19 replies
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I predicted at the end of 2019 that various popular #btc price predictions would prove to be too bullish because they are based on NON-diminishing returns.
Here is an update of that prediction. I have not changed my forecasts, I merely filled in new price data (in red). https://
0 views · 254 likes
· 37 reposts · 39 replies
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14/ What this all means:
Long-term: Predictions made by some individuals (@bitcointina, @fundstrat) seem to assume NON-diminishing returns, whereas we have observed DIMINISHING returns.
For these predictions to hold, #bitcoin needs to start to have NON-diminishing returns. https:
0 views · 23 likes
· 2 reposts · 3 replies
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Growth & engagement
How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.
Views per post
46.8K21 Mar
7.3K23 May
10K9 Sep
10.4K
66.7K18 Dec
13.4K
4.5K
4.6K
9.2K
4.8K
1.1K
1.3K16 Apr
Last 12 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.
Engagement rate per post
0.59%21 Mar
0.67%23 May
1.15%9 Sep
0.78%
0.50%18 Dec
0.69%
0.54%
0.41%
0.67%
0.89%
1.49%
1.79%16 Apr
Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views.
What the audience does
Likes68.8%920 in total
Reposts8.1%108 in total
Replies5.7%76 in total
Quotes2.5%33 in total
Bookmarks15.0%200 in total
Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.
The follower curve appears once this account has two daily snapshots — we take one a day, and this one is on its first.
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