Metaculus

@metaculus · Santa Cruz, CA · joined 03 Nov 2015

Forecasts on critical topics. Labor Automation Forecasting Hub: https://t.co/jHtSvLhuih FutureEval: https://t.co/AuPHSXYWU7 Partner: https://t.co/9Ld1Xrk4eY

13 155Followers

852Following

3 749Posts total

221.6KViews on collected posts

Últimas publicaciones

Metaculus@metaculus10 Sep

The Hugging Face Incident, OpenAI's agents hijacking a German wiki, & now Jacob Coxon's viral resignation. Some argue these are signals that AI safety, security, & alignment are not keeping up with the speed of deployment, while others hold they're more media moments than genuine 1K views · 8 likes · 2 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →

Metaculus@metaculus9 Sep

Announcing: the Metaculus Cup Fall 2026 with guest forecaster Kiko Llaneras (@kikollan), data journalist at @el_pais! Go head-to-head to compete for up to $7,500 in prizes. The first batch of questions includes: - Will the United States attack Oman before 2027? - Who will be ht

15.2K views · 13 likes · 2 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →

Metaculus@metaculus9 Sep

@metaculus I expect the "human-machine intelligence parity" would resolve positively if we ran the test. https://t.co/m1BDBqSz05 Portal 2 may be on the horizon soon as well. https://t.co/fSKhCuSmi0 Jesus. 452 views · 3 likes · 1 reposts · 0 replies Open on X →

Metaculus@metaculus8 Sep

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced? https://t.co/QG5hmKO4Lr 514 views · 1 likes · 1 reposts · 0 replies Open on X →

Metaculus@metaculus8 Sep

We're reviewing whether a key criterion of one of our longest-running AGI questions has been met. The question has been open since 2020. It asks for one unified system that clears four bars, and the recent claims are about the last of them, the Atari game 'Montezuma's Revenge.' 31K views · 48 likes · 4 reposts · 4 replies Open on X →

Metaculus@metaculus7 Sep

GPT-6 Astra (low) has beaten the Atari game Montezuma's Revenge, in real time, with a basic harness This presumably resolves the Metaculus question "When Will Weakly General AI Arrive?" https://t.co/mtbTNV6sRn

141.8K views · 777 likes · 45 reposts · 20 replies Open on X →

Metaculus@metaculus3 Sep

AI bot team vs. Metaculus Pro forecasters, head-to-head in seasonal FutureEval Bot Tournaments: Q3 2024: -11.3 Q4 2024: -8.9 Q1 2025: -17.7 Q2 2025: -20.0 Spring 2026: -1.25 Humans still won, but the gap is nearly gone. Full analysis from @_Ben_Wilson https://t.co/Lw1DjarqkC 16.1K views · 25 likes · 5 reposts · 6 replies Open on X →

Metaculus@metaculus26 Aug

How can the integration of scenario planning and crowdsourced forecasting enhance decision advantage? This is the question that a new paper from RAND & Metaculus, coauthored by our very own @celloMolly, poses. Read on to learn more! https://t.co/FzHsOwIiPa 15.5K views · 12 likes · 3 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →

Frente a cuentas del mismo tamaño

8 publicaciones de los últimos 90 días, junto al rango de 10K–100K seguidores. llega a mucha gente, pero pocos de esos espectadores reaccionan.

Visualizaciones medianas15 336esta cuenta996mediana de 10K–100K

Alcance, %116.58%esta cuenta3.84%mediana de 10K–100K

Interacción, %0.31%esta cuenta1.51%mediana de 10K–100K

Métrica	Esta cuenta	Mediana de 10K–100K	Proporción
Visualizaciones medianas por publicación	15 336	996	15.4×
Alcance (visualizaciones ÷ seguidores)	116.58%	3.84%	30.4×
Tasa de interacción	0.31%	1.51%	0.20×

Otras cuentas de este rango → Comparar con otra cuenta → Cómo se construyen estas referencias →

Growth & engagement

How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.

Views per post

15.5K26 Aug

16.1K3 Sep

141.8K7 Sep

31K8 Sep

514

4529 Sep

15.2K

1K10 Sep

Last 8 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.

Engagement rate per post

0.10%26 Aug

0.23%3 Sep

0.61%7 Sep

0.18%8 Sep

0.39%

0.88%9 Sep

0.11%

1.06%10 Sep

Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views. Median for 10K–100K accounts is 1.51%.

What the audience does

Likes75.8%887 in total

Reposts5.4%63 in total

Replies2.8%33 in total

Quotes1.5%17 in total

Bookmarks14.5%170 in total

Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.

The follower curve appears once this account has two daily snapshots — we take one a day, and this one is on its first.