Guy Berger
@EconBerger · San Francisco, CA · joined 23 Feb 2016
Senior Advisor on Labor Markets at Access/Macro; Workforce Economist in Residence at Guild; Senior Fellow at BGI. Tweets represent my own views.
113 356Followers
3 580Following
34 414Posts total
39.7KViews on collected posts
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Is there anything sadder than a CPS superfan saying “pay attention to the CES instead”
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9/ An addendum. I'm also seeing comments about how the M-M gain in establishment survey employment during August was +158K women, +4K men. That seems like a huge difference in magnitude! but +158K is an increase of 0.2% M/M... it's pretty small.
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8/ So: Basically, the gap in employment gains between men and women over the past year is real, but not nearly as big as the published household survey estimates (dashed lines) suggest.
The establishment survey (solid lines) is much closer in order of magnitude. https://t.co/HKh
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7/ Those population adjustments flow into all the other numbers in the household survey, including employment.
Unfortunately you just can't take the published household survey *count* series crossing Dec 2025 / January 2026 boundary at face value as a result.
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6/ In January every year the BLS implements population adjustments based on new Census estimates in a quirky way, not revising prior numbers - just a one time discontinuous change.
And this year that adjustment was a large revision up (down) for the population of women (men). ht
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5/ In this case the household survey is almost certainly wrong, for a messy methodological reason.
If you look at the chart carefully, you'll notice that the gender gap between the HH survey series massively widens in January.
And something important happens every January. http
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4/ They historically track together, but sometimes they diverge.
And on the Q "what's the gap in employment gains between men & women during the past year" they currently disagree enormously.
Establishment survey says the gap is 387K, household survey says 2,370K(!!!) https://t
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3/ ...Current Employment Statistics (CES).
The CPS is a phone survey of households; the CES is a survey of firms/establishments. So they're often nicknamed "the household survey" and "establishment survey".
You can generate employment counts (incl gender splits) from both.
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2/ There are a few threads circulating tonight about recent employment gains for men and women. I think some interpretations of them are erroneous.
It all starts with the fact that the monthly BLS jobs data comes from two sources, the Current Population Survey (CPS) and the...
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Q: Is employment of women recently outpacing that of men?
A: Yes, but only by a little.
1/ Thread... https://t.co/ZDYmg9cyYj
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@EconBerger Thanks. I felt a bit crazy seeing all these people not understanding that the chart we have seen an increase in manufacturing employment this year.
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I think some of the confusion is coming from the axis label, but it’s clearer once you look at just the original series https://t.co/8AOJEFABqF
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I’m seeing a bunch of dunks on this tweet by smart people along the line of “the 2nd derivative is positive but the 1st derivative is still negative”
But… the dunks are wrong.
This chart really does show a small increase in the level of manufacturing employment during 2026 http
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When I was chatting with @keds_economist yesterday I impulsively made the comment “it’s a shame that workers would bear the brunt of monetary policy tightening responding to the AI CAPEX boom”
but I quickly caught myself because I’m not sure that’s true
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My recap of August's strong jobs report... people got carried away with negativity after July's report, and are now probably getting carried away in the opposite direction.
Link: https://t.co/CotDG8PLSo https://t.co/dMCra9FTjA
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Me and the one and only @keds_economist will be nerding out over the jobs numbers live on substack in 19 minutes (9 AM PT / 12 PM ET)
https://t.co/DcmbU6qHpb
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Face aux comptes de taille comparable
16 posts des 90 derniers jours, à côté de la tranche de 100K–1M abonnés. en dessous de ses pairs à la fois en portée et en engagement.
Vues médianes1 053ce compte4 918médiane pour 100K–1M
Portée, %0.93%ce compte1.70%médiane pour 100K–1M
Engagement, %0.76%ce compte1.22%médiane pour 100K–1M
| Indicateur | Ce compte | Médiane pour 100K–1M | Rapport |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vues médianes par post | 1 053 | 4 918 | 0.21× |
| Portée (vues ÷ abonnés) | 0.93% | 1.70% | 0.55× |
| Taux d'engagement | 0.76% | 1.22% | 0.62× |
Autres comptes de cette tranche → Comparer avec un autre compte → Comment ces repères sont établis →
Growth & engagement
How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.
Views per post
3.7K5 Sep
14.5K6 Sep
1.4K
377
5.8K
452
424
405
385
260
304
1.1K
996
2.5K
Last 14 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.
Engagement rate per post
0.56%5 Sep
0.53%6 Sep
0.90%
3.18%
0.77%
1.99%
1.18%
0.74%
1.30%
2.69%
0.99%
0.36%
0.60%
0.08%
Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views. Median for 100K–1M accounts is 1.22%.
What the audience does
Likes61.2%167 in total
Reposts9.5%26 in total
Replies14.7%40 in total
Quotes3.3%9 in total
Bookmarks11.4%31 in total
Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.
Followers by day
6 Sep
Daily snapshots since 06 Sep 2026; the dashed line is the starting count.
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