Frank Curzio ✓
@FrankCurzio
Founder & CEO of @CurzioResearch. Host of the Wall Street Unplugged Podcast. Releasing stock research, trade ideas & watchlists. Currently trading AI and energy
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805Following
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UPDATE: the Fed meets this afternoon, and what they say decides how much of this lands on American consumers.
Wrote the full breakdown here:https://t.co/jrFjCiqx2d
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Everyone's watching the Middle East right now.
But people aren't connecting that with the Fed meeting this afternoon.
What the Fed says today decides how much damage this does to America.
The full story + the 3 most likely outcomes: 👇 https://t.co/oCbHZx3Zhd
11.5K views · 26 likes
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3:02
@FrankCurzio Where I live, we're at $8.99 for diesel. Nobody is cutting back. Not a single soul. People are addicted to travel.
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Media Credits:
- The Hormuz Letter
- ABC News
- X OSINT Sources
12.9K views · 53 likes
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Want more updates on the Middle East?
Tomorrow, I'll be breaking down in depth what's happening, and how it affects our markets.
Follow me @FrankCurzio to catch it.
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My guidance here?
1. Buy the discounters - Walmart, Costco, the businesses big enough to absorb an input shock and take customers trading down.
2. Avoid packaged food, staples, restaurants. Heading into a quarter with a new cost line they couldn't plan for.
3. The real trade
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1. Raise prices and lose volume
2. Eat the cost and miss guidance
Most will do both.
But the consumer will trade down to the cheaper shelf either way.
14.5K views · 124 likes
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One area where America is NOT protected?
Food, and the impact will happen quicker than you think:
Every item on a US shelf gets there by truck & diesel just went vertical.
So US retailers really only have two options:
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We have more domestic refining and more domestic crude.
It buys security, but not price protection.
Even though America produces about as much oil as it uses, we don't get our own price. Oil trades globally, so Europe's shortage hits us.
14.8K views · 131 likes
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So what now?
Diesel gets hit first - it's already up 35% here in 40 days. The photo is from Germany where it's $11 a gallon.
Diesel moves trucks, trains, ships, tractors, construction. It sits underneath the price of everything else. https://t.co/HSZmjw7zSX
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Riyadh's own response tells you how bad it is
Saudi Arabia is now trying to push crude back through Hormuz.
The strait they spent five months building around.
You don't attempt that unless the alternative is not exporting at all.
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So why is oil only at $103?
It's moving - up 10% in a week, a four-month high.
But that's only the price of a disrupted route, not a country running out of routes.
My take? The market reacted to the event, but not to future outlook...
17.2K views · 159 likes
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Saudi Arabia has now stopped selling to Europe
Aramco cancelled its September crude allocations to European refiners.
One European buyer says they've been told nothing until November.
Saudi Arabia is hinting at how long this lasts, but nobody's listening. https://t.co/M1oMPiAY
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Hormuz: blocked.
Bab al-Mandeb (only way out of the Red Sea): Houthi blockade
Yanbu: bombed
And the Yanbu port represented 92% of all Saudi seaborne crude exports in June. Now, there is no alternative.
So what now?
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This morning, they hit the other end.
Houthi forces appear to have struck the YASREF refinery at Yanbu - where that pipeline ends.
400,000 barrels a day. One of the largest diesel exporters on the Red Sea.
Now, all possible outlets are blocked: https://t.co/gduRW6ID6J
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0:42
Satellite imagery now suggests three pump stations were hit, not one.
Pump stations aren't simple pipeline welds.
They use specialist parts, with long lead times for repair.
Aramco (Saudi state-owned oil company) still hasn't given a restart date.
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Then on Sept 10 (last Thursday) - it got attacked.
Drones launched from Iraq struck the East-West Pipeline.
Problem was, that pipeline represented ~7% of global oil supply.
It went offline, and now, it's worse than first reported:
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Saudi Arabia stopped exporting through the Strait of Hormuz months ago.
When Hormuz was blocked in March, they spent five months rerouting crude through the East-West Pipeline to Yanbu on the Red Sea.
Nearly every barrel Saudi Arabia moved got rerouted through that one line:
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People have no idea how serious the oil crisis in the Middle East just got.
Never seen $10 gas before? You're about to.
Mainstream media is still hours behind on coverage.
Here's everything you need to know + what to expect: 👇 https://t.co/SZWjhXolxr
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1:55
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia's oil problem just multiplied.
What looked like a single Houthi hit on the East-West pipeline is now looking like a coordinated hammering of the whole system.
Fresh satellite imagery shows Pump Station 9 badly damaged, with Pump Station 8 possibly hit too, both
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0:58
Face aux comptes de taille comparable
20 posts des 90 derniers jours, à côté de la tranche de 10K–100K abonnés. diffusé largement, mais peu de ces spectateurs réagissent.
Vues médianes16 674ce compte1 027médiane pour 10K–100K
Portée, %32.70%ce compte4.04%médiane pour 10K–100K
Engagement, %0.90%ce compte1.55%médiane pour 10K–100K
| Indicateur | Ce compte | Médiane pour 10K–100K | Rapport |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vues médianes par post | 16 674 | 1 027 | 16.2× |
| Portée (vues ÷ abonnés) | 32.70% | 4.04% | 8.09× |
| Taux d'engagement | 0.90% | 1.55% | 0.58× |
Autres comptes de cette tranche → Comparer avec un autre compte → Comment ces repères sont établis →
Growth & engagement
How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.
Views per post
19.6K15 Sep
19.2K
17.2K
16.8K
16.6K
14.8K
15K
14.5K
14.2K
13.7K
12.9K
8.8K
11.5K16 Sep
3K
Last 14 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.
Engagement rate per post
0.88%15 Sep
1.07%
0.99%
0.93%
1.10%
0.99%
1.09%
0.92%
1.07%
0.58%
0.45%
0.42%
0.32%16 Sep
0.39%
Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views. Median for 10K–100K accounts is 1.55%.
What the audience does
Likes69.6%10 556 in total
Reposts14.2%2 151 in total
Replies1.9%292 in total
Quotes1.1%161 in total
Bookmarks13.2%2 004 in total
Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.
The follower curve appears once this account has two daily snapshots — we take one a day, and this one is on its first.
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