Mujtaba Rahman ✓
@Mij_Europe · London, Bxl, Paris, EU · joined 01 Jan 2019
Managing Director Europe @EurasiaGroup. Prev @hmtreasury @EU_Commission. Senior Research Fellow @LSEEI. @ECFR Council Member. My views. Seeking analytical truth
62 275Followers
1 148Following
24 674Posts total
4.2MViews on collected posts
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@Mij_Europe Fascinating thread. The real question is whether the barrage républicain (Republican Front) holds up in a runoff this time. French voters have historically rallied to block the Far Right in round two, but fatigue and shifting centre-right dynamics make this year entir
564 views · 4 likes
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IFOP makes it even closer: Le Pen 52% and Philippe 48%. Conclusion: a Le Pen victory on 2 Mayis still far from certain. All depends on who trails in behind her in Round One. If it’s Mélenchon, the game will be over. ENDS https://t.co/IauZ7IAGoV
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Elabe puts Philippe within five points of Le Pen 47.5 to 52.5%. 12/ https://t.co/rFRw6RzGbg
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Elabe, like all polling organisations, suggests that Melenchon would be crushed by Le Pen if he reaches Round Two. https://t.co/BcgpDyuku3
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In sum, Le Pen will win Round One but the crucial second place is undecided. Philippe remains favourite and his chances may yet be boosted by polls showing him as by far the strongest candidate against Le Pen in the run-off. 10/
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In any case, a more recent poll last weekend by Elabe suggests that the Mélenchon surge has fallen flat (down to 14%). In the most likely Round One line-up – in which Attal drops out and Glucksmann dominates the centre-left, Edouard Philippe leads the race for second place, https
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The centrist and Mélenchon scores also fluctuate with the different hypotheses of who will run best on the moderate Left. Note that the Euro MP Raphael Glucksmann currently outperforms the ex-President François Hollande, who is planning to join the race by December. 8/
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An IFOP poll on 24-25 Aug had Mélenchon on 16-19% and Philippe on 14.5- 21%. BUT….the lowest Philippe numbers in both polls are misleading. They depend on Philippe and another ex-PM Gabriel Attal splitting the centrist vote. That is unlikely. They have an understanding that one
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A Harris poll on 18-19 Aug showed Mélenchon rising to 17% support and threatening to snatch the second qualifying position from the centrist former Prime Minister, Edouard Philippe on 14 to 19%. 6/ https://t.co/xR5OqUnbAQ
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Is Le Pen beatable? Yes but it all depends on who comes second in Round One and reaches the run-off on 2 May. Two polls in recent days have rung establishment alarm-bells by showing a surge in support for the veteran hard left candidate, Jean-Luc Mélenchon. 5/
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The circumstances in 1980 were very different. Giscard was the incumbent and the French detest incumbents. Mitterrand was promising radical “change”. This year the leading anti-establishment candidate is Le Pen. All the same, it is a useful reminder that early polls CAN be
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Yes they have. But you have to go back 46 years. Le Figaro did a useful deep-dive into previous presidential polls this week. In September 1980 President Valéry Giscard d’Estaing was 15 points ahead of François Mitterrand but lost the election the following May. 3/ https://t.co/
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Three polls in the past month have given Marine Le Pen a 15 to 21 point lead in Round One on 18 April. They suggest that she would beat any opponent in the two-candidate run-off on 2 May (see Harris poll below). Has any French presidential front-runner ever lost from such a https
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As the April-May French presidential campaign enters a critical phase, the numbers look good for Marine Le Pen but France may still avoid its first Far Right government since 1944. Here are the three most recent polls - and some history. 1/ https://t.co/ndNMuhr8p2
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Pure hypocrisy on Le Pen’s part. A senior RN official, her ex boyfriend, says that, if elected President, she would halt French aid to Ukraine. One of her main rivals Edouard Phlippe says that would be a betrayal of French security.
In response, Le Pen denies nothing. She
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Marine Le Pen supposedly abandoned Frexit in 2022. Here she seems to revert to her old line... a Europe of entirely sovereign member states. Will she campaign for that openly or hide behind her sophistry of "reform from the inside"?
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En rejetant par référendum la reprise des négociations d’adhésion à l’Union européenne, le peuple islandais a rappelé une évidence : l’adhésion à l’Union européenne n’est pas l’horizon naturel de toute démocratie européenne.
Ce vote délivre un message limpide : les peuples
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Marine Le Pen's candidacy in next year's French presidential election is a major problem for France and for Europe, because she is a more competitive candidate than Jordan Bardella, and her program is more disruptive. My latest in the Guardian
https://t.co/lYQfRos60y
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French Twitter is the best Twitter right now. Wild
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Face aux comptes de taille comparable
18 posts des 90 derniers jours, à côté de la tranche de 10K–100K abonnés. portée ordinaire pour sa taille, réaction plus faible que la moyenne.
Vues médianes2 266ce compte924médiane pour 10K–100K
Portée, %3.64%ce compte3.62%médiane pour 10K–100K
Engagement, %0.84%ce compte1.52%médiane pour 10K–100K
| Indicateur | Ce compte | Médiane pour 10K–100K | Rapport |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vues médianes par post | 2 266 | 924 | 2.45× |
| Portée (vues ÷ abonnés) | 3.64% | 3.62% | 1.01× |
| Taux d'engagement | 0.84% | 1.52% | 0.56× |
Autres comptes de cette tranche → Comparer avec un autre compte → Comment ces repères sont établis →
Growth & engagement
How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.
Views per post
32.5K5 Sep
2.9K
2.4K
2.3K
6.1K
2.2K
2K
1.7K
1.7K
1.4K
1.4K
2.3K
2.2K
564
Last 14 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.
Engagement rate per post
0.47%5 Sep
0.61%
0.95%
0.88%
0.31%
0.87%
0.86%
0.64%
0.83%
1.03%
0.72%
0.49%
0.96%
0.71%
Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views. Median for 10K–100K accounts is 1.52%.
What the audience does
Likes82.8%68 940 in total
Reposts11.0%9 161 in total
Replies2.1%1 770 in total
Quotes1.1%936 in total
Bookmarks2.9%2 446 in total
Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.
The follower curve appears once this account has two daily snapshots — we take one a day, and this one is on its first.
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