Raoul Pal ✓
@RaoulGMI · Cayman Islands · joined 19 Apr 2014
Founder/CEO Global Macro Investor, @RealVision. Figuring things out at the nexus of Macro, Web3 & the Exponential Age. Not a guru.
1 498 227Followers
1 752Following
60 989Posts total
6.9MViews on collected posts
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David and I created The Exponentialist 3+!yeses ago for exactly these times. Read the week downloads and my Postcards from the Exponential Age free on Substack. I promise it will make you think... a lot
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· 14 reposts · 2 replies
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The next $5 trillion in transactions won't be human.
That's the premise at Sui Basecamp 2026, and @RaoulGMI is on the speaker list. Oct 7 and 8, Marina Bay Sands, Singapore, with @token2049. https://t.co/fXf2k3xr4H
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· 5 reposts · 8 replies
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This is my Everything Code framework in a single chart...
Theres no growing out of debt at these levels, so governments have no choice but to print to pay the interest and borrow more on top.
On the face of it, we're all fucked.
But I find myself oddly optimistic. For
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· 66 reposts · 33 replies
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Funnily enough I wrote about this yesterday...
BlackRock gets the rails right:
- AI is machine native intelligence, crypto is machine native money
- Agents cant use banks so they need blockchains
- Stablecoins are the money they pay with
- Compute becomes a tokenised asset
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· 388 reposts · 265 replies
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Global government debt has surged to unprecedented levels:
The Debt-to-GDP ratio of emerging market economies is up to ~78%, its highest level in data going back to 1880.
Since the 2008 Financial Crisis, this metric has more than doubled and surpassed the ~45% peak seen during
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· 263 reposts · 121 replies
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can't be arsed reading a big long article? have AI me summarise the thinking for you in seconds.
here it is breaking down my latest piece on why people are thinking too small when it comes to tokenization. But it's trained on 35 years of my thinking so you can ask it literally
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· 57 reposts · 27 replies
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When people think about tokenisation they tend to think about trading Apple on a Sunday, instant settlement, 24/7 markets... That's one tiny piece of it.
The bigger story is that everything becomes a token, and the whole economy gets rebuilt around it. https://t.co/TE4LmgrkYs
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· 201 reposts · 116 replies
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Investing is about simplifying things to reduce your decisions down to very few...
I developed the GMI Compounding Machine for RV Pro to do just that.
You can adjust how many standard deviations over bought you want to buy and how many standard deviations oversold you want to
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· 71 reposts · 68 replies
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What I love about James is that he is an utterly manic bull but uses a long-term time horizon in all of his posts and basically a combination of all of this works every time. Either crypto is on an adoption curve or it's failed. If it's on an adoption curve, all of these entry
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I don't trade (crypto or anything) a lot. I am a macro guy with long term horizons...I just add when the market is deeply oversold.
I added more ETH at 1,650, SOL at 65 and SUI at 0.75 back on June 5th. Those "stink bids" were pretty decent for RV Pro and GMI members. All 43
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· 78 reposts · 151 replies
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AIs have already invented two religions.
The first came out of an experiment in New Zealand. Andy Ayrey put two AIs in a room and let them talk with nobody steering. Out of that came the Goatse Gospel... an entire theology built around an old internet meme, which spilled onto X
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2:35
Valhalla is ours. https://t.co/aDYW1JtRTa
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· 30 reposts · 18 replies
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What the hell is going on in the markets?
The Fed hiked for the first time in three years but everything's ripping...
So I asked my digital mind on https://t.co/3DrrDtyirN to explain the disconnect. For anyone who hasnt tried it yet its trained on 35 years of my research and ht
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· 16 reposts · 22 replies
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0:39
Meta now makes $2.9m of revenue per employee. In early 2023 it was $1.4m. Same company, same platforms, a headcount that has barely moved... and twice the revenue per head in three years.
Ive been staring at that ratio all summer, for a different reason, and it keeps turning up
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All children are a function of the society they grow up in. The rules around them, their parents, their friends, the stories and memories handed down... plus their genes (software) and the variations in them (which themselves carry the experiences of the generations before).
All
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· 49 reposts · 76 replies
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Most people are still thinking about robots as something that does the vacuuming.
Think about what's actually being built. AGI brains inside humanoid bodies that are faster, stronger, more dexterous and smarter than we are, and that never retire. To me that's not a machine. http
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· 59 reposts · 38 replies
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0:39
My view for a couple of months is that BTC outperforms the NDX going forwards as fiscal dominance and the need to refinance meets The Everything Code (the need for more liquidity to fund it). As rates broke higher, crypto rose sharply... there is signal in that... 1/ https://t.co
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· 144 reposts · 97 replies
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Ive spent 35 years building a way of thinking about markets... the liquidity cycle, debasement, the exponential technologies eating everything. Its scattered across thousands of hours of interviews, reports and Real Vision videos.
https://t.co/3DrrDtyQhl is all of that in one ht
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1:35
The US owes more than its whole economy produces in a year. So does nearly every major country. And the interest bill is in the trillions.
For fifteen years the debt has been managed by debasing the currency around 8% a year, and rolling it forward. That's the Everything Code...
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· 73 reposts · 49 replies
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0:39
Spent yesterday in a studio reading my own book out loud.
Strange experience. Ideas I've been writing about for twenty years, on liquidity, debt, demographics and where the Exponential Age takes all of us, and now I'm hearing them come back through a pair of headphones in my own
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· 14 reposts · 50 replies
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All this fear around AI taking your job misses a huge part of the story...
Labour force participation was falling long before AI showed up because it follows the birth rate with a twenty year lag, and birth rates have been falling for decades.
So machines are mostly filling ht
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· 53 reposts · 58 replies
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0:44
Most people think crypto's addressable market is what it is today. They're wrong.
I sat down with @richwgalvin of DACM to explore why the reset may finally be ending, and why the application layer could be the most mispriced trade in the market right now. As ever, please enjoy!
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53:40
You need to make 11% a year just to stand still.
Thats 8% currency debasement plus inflation, and only two asset classes have really cleared it... crypto and technology.
My book The Everything Code is out November 3rd. It covers why an aging population forced the world into htt
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· 109 reposts · 79 replies
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1:37
The old GDP formula was population growth + productivity growth + debt growth.
It ran for decades and it worked beautifully for the most part... populations grew, people got more productive, and debt was there to smooth the edges.
In recent years demographics have weakened, ht
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0:48
I've been saying demographics are destiny for years... This is the clearest case study I have for why.
I first wrote this up for GMI subscribers in January 2024.
Now it's for everyone. As ever, please enjoy! https://t.co/5cIQ1LRN7d
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· 22 reposts · 17 replies
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If you’re sweating short time horizons you’re fucking everything up.
Crypto hasn't been through a cycle. A cycle needs liquidity to drive it, and what we got was liquidity being dampened while a massive bull market ran in something else.
The actual driver hasn't changed. https:
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0:58
Question of the day for AI me... why is every government locked into so much debt and how do we fix it?
Its the question underneath everything. Once you understand why the debt cant stop the rest of the world starts to make sense...
I wanted to see how AI Raoul would handle it.
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0:57
The whole economy is essentially running on one giant credit card.
Governments are locked into a debt cycle they cant get out of... nothing ever gets paid back. When the debt comes due they roll it into new debt, and the interest gets paid with more borrowing. One credit card ht
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0:54
Thousands of you talk to my digital mind on https://t.co/3DrrDtyirN every week.
One question came up more than almost any other this week: where are we in the cycle, and whats next.
But some of you asked properly wild stuff this week too... dropping my faves below https://t.co/
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Face aux comptes de taille comparable
72 posts des 90 derniers jours, à côté de la tranche de 1M–10M abonnés. diffusé à plus de monde que les comptes de taille comparable.
Vues médianes73 138ce compte14 648médiane pour 1M–10M
Portée, %4.88%ce compte0.74%médiane pour 1M–10M
Engagement, %0.54%ce compte0.70%médiane pour 1M–10M
| Indicateur | Ce compte | Médiane pour 1M–10M | Rapport |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vues médianes par post | 73 138 | 14 648 | 4.99× |
| Portée (vues ÷ abonnés) | 4.88% | 0.74% | 6.60× |
| Taux d'engagement | 0.54% | 0.70% | 0.77× |
Autres comptes de cette tranche → Comparer avec un autre compte → Comment ces repères sont établis →
Growth & engagement
How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.
Views per post
67K21 Sep
267K
45.4K
206.6K22 Sep
257.7K
91.3K
311K
133.3K
278.1K23 Sep
292.7K
106.7K
53.2K
52.3K24 Sep
60.1K
Last 14 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.
Engagement rate per post
0.45%21 Sep
0.29%
0.31%
1.22%22 Sep
0.75%
1.12%
0.54%
0.47%
0.69%23 Sep
1.17%
0.58%
0.14%
0.23%24 Sep
0.24%
Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views. Median for 1M–10M accounts is 0.70%.
What the audience does
Likes70.3%23 084 in total
Reposts6.9%2 260 in total
Replies5.3%1 747 in total
Quotes0.9%306 in total
Bookmarks16.6%5 452 in total
Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.
The follower curve appears once this account has two daily snapshots — we take one a day, and this one is on its first.
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