Andy Constan ✓
@dampedspring · joined 25 Jun 2013
https://t.co/SgaSuGdrox macro & beta @2Graybeards for beta. Both for investor education, Brevan Howard, Bridgewater, Salomon, Dad of 4. Go Penn, No tweet is advice
566 953Followers
474Following
102 875Posts total
1.5MViews on collected posts
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@dampedspring The way that account always does commentary on the worst common denominator (his imagined or real observation of people who lose a lot of money) is a classic sign of an untrustworthy operator.
Incentive misalignment with his audience.
367 views · 2 likes
· 0 reposts · 1 replies
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@dampedspring I think it is a double top. FED will hike a lot
321 views · 1 likes
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He's been dead right but it would be funny if it it was a double top
29K views · 94 likes
· 2 reposts · 11 replies
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$NASDAQ Double Top Bears in 3, 2, 1....
38.5K views · 128 likes
· 5 reposts · 16 replies
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@dampedspring TRUMP: WARSH CALLED, HE SAID HE WANTS TO MAKE A DEAL
356 views · 2 likes
· 0 reposts · 0 replies
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@dampedspring Love not only the tape but every person who doubted what would happen yesterday and this morning are saying
See
1K views · 7 likes
· 0 reposts · 1 replies
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State of the Sectors. All 1 Year changes. https://t.co/ufXqtZWjQA
10.5K views · 17 likes
· 3 reposts · 4 replies
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"In lieu of calling it debt funded or tax funded we will transfer wealth from one part of the private sector economy to another". Seems like taxes or debt but if you want to get creative it could be force our allies and enemies to give us the money (mar a Lago accord) or sell
15.2K views · 17 likes
· 3 reposts · 12 replies
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Forward P/E's have dropped a little bit. Many rightly are suggesting thats due to "Growing into earnings" as forward earnings are rising while price sits flat. That statement implies equities are "Cheaper" than they were. However while this IS going on. The discount rate is h
16.1K views · 81 likes
· 5 reposts · 19 replies
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At least some markets moved. Good week for NGDP expectations, Bad week for Bonds. Really pretty bad tbh. That actually constrained equities. https://t.co/XiuuYsMaA0
13.6K views · 32 likes
· 1 reposts · 5 replies
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Golf course behavior?
290 yard par four with green at least 50 feet above tee box and all of that in the 50 yards before the green. Steep upslope
The 24 year old son who shoots high 90's hits the best drive of his life and the ball trickles on the front of the green.
4 some
23.3K views · 36 likes
· 0 reposts · 70 replies
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Many on here have been discussing "success" as a trader. Mostly there are a tiny percentage of the world that I would define as successful and a huge percentage that I would define as lucky.
Here's my framework for that idea. Given this framing, it also explains why "lucky
22.2K views · 116 likes
· 1 reposts · 17 replies
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My alpha positions are at less than 10% of max risk and about 10% of average risk. Smallest bets in the history of https://t.co/p5PuhKKyH2.
Beta positions are at 10% risk target (yes conservative) but that's my risk target. Doesn't have to be yours https://t.co/MGdFmbYvnw
20.7K views · 185 likes
· 8 reposts · 28 replies
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Importing goods and exporting financial assets is NOT losing it's also NOT winning. It's a market exchange.
The U.S. doesn't have "credit risk" like a real estate developer financing at a bank or in the corporate market.
High relative sovereign real rates are indicators of a
14.7K views · 123 likes
· 5 reposts · 22 replies
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I'll write some thoughts down on this briefly. Firstly @fejau_inc is a smart guy and isn't making a radical statement and knows all the nuances. Secondly. Literally anything can happen within a few bp. Thirdly in this very narrow case I wouldn't stake much capital on this
18.8K views · 100 likes
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AI cloud firm Nscale seeks $3.5 billion in pre-IPO financing; daniel Loeb's Third Point said to lead Nscale convertible sale
49.3K views · 11 likes
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Enjoying @AahanPrometheus and @BobEUnlimited new blog site Friday videos. In today's episode they go deep on commodities and commodity risk premiums. I wrote a fun and story filled 101
On the blog site you may enjoy this weekend. Always free and link in next comment https://t.
12.6K views · 44 likes
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Regardless of what happens at the next FOMC the Fed and global central banks are NOT going on a major hiking or cutting cycle you maniacs. https://t.co/kDKi0sUVKc
13.4K views · 136 likes
· 3 reposts · 18 replies
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@tulipking A hike would likely lower longer term yields at this current state
47.1K views · 72 likes
· 4 reposts · 13 replies
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Which return stream do you prefer? Modestly leveraged diversified beta holding gold, commodities, DM (including US) bonds, tips, and equities, or SPY. Same realized vol much less drawdown and higher return. I prefer diversification. Today bonds offer more diversification htt
11.2K views · 47 likes
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Gold, Foreign Developed Market Stocks, Commodities (like what we eat and burn) have blown away other assets since Inauguration. #Somuchwinning https://t.co/lnJacJHYqe
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Fwiw. Sept 9th announcement of the Sept 10 "liquidity management" buyback is the slightest of signal because Bessent could go bigger than the already announced 4BN. BUT THIS IS NOT THAT
It's the cash management program and is irrelevant to markets in basically every possible
14.6K views · 32 likes
· 2 reposts · 3 replies
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@dampedspring TGA risk policy size just going to keep rising.
Next QRA is after midterm votes are cast so least politically pressured QRA in a while to whatever extent that matters.
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@dampedspring Could also do it w/much higher short term rates
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@dampedspring Own hard assets. I just dont know how to trade my credit book. Its tough. I always own beta. Hard to justify owning GLD, outside my permitted product. I would think credit curves would steepen with rates “pinned”. All this intervention is tiresome. Id love
833 views · 5 likes
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Face aux comptes de taille comparable
31 posts des 90 derniers jours, à côté de la tranche de 100K–1M abonnés. diffusé largement, mais peu de ces spectateurs réagissent.
Vues médianes13 546ce compte5 983médiane pour 100K–1M
Portée, %2.39%ce compte1.49%médiane pour 100K–1M
Engagement, %0.53%ce compte0.93%médiane pour 100K–1M
| Indicateur | Ce compte | Médiane pour 100K–1M | Rapport |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vues médianes par post | 13 546 | 5 983 | 2.26× |
| Portée (vues ÷ abonnés) | 2.39% | 1.49% | 1.60× |
| Taux d'engagement | 0.53% | 0.93% | 0.57× |
Autres comptes de cette tranche → Comparer avec un autre compte → Comment ces repères sont établis →
Growth & engagement
How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.
Views per post
23.3K5 Sep
13.6K12 Sep
16.1K
15.2K
10.5K
22.6K17 Sep
1K
356
2.2K
38.5K22 Sep
29K23 Sep
1.3K
321
367
Last 14 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.
Engagement rate per post
0.46%5 Sep
0.28%12 Sep
0.65%
0.21%
0.23%
0.73%17 Sep
0.77%
0.56%
0.18%
0.39%22 Sep
0.38%23 Sep
0.87%
0.31%
0.82%
Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views. Median for 100K–1M accounts is 0.93%.
What the audience does
Likes66.4%1 608 in total
Reposts2.6%64 in total
Replies12.8%310 in total
Quotes1.0%24 in total
Bookmarks17.2%416 in total
Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.
The follower curve appears once this account has two daily snapshots — we take one a day, and this one is on its first.
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