Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 ✓

@lymanstoneky · KY-DC-HK-QC-KY · joined 04 Jul 2012

Lutheran Husband Dad Kentuckian Demographer. Please forgive me: my tweets are often accidentally mean. @DemographicNTEL, @FamStudies Pronatalism Initiative

40 795Followers

2 082Following

226 966Posts total

14.2KViews on collected posts

Derniers posts

Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 ✓@lymanstoneky4 Sep

Glad we agree PPR1 is a better fit for every cohort we have actually observed! That being true, as we agree, the burden of proof is on TMR/TFR1 advocates to give us reasons to think it will perform better in the future. (There are no such reasons) 453 views · 0 likes · 0 reposts · 0 replies Open on X →

Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 ✓@lymanstoneky4 Sep

Your gray line only exists for completed cohorts, out to those born in the early 1970s. The cohorts actually in dispute, the ones still living through record postponement, are not old enough to be on it yet. A good fit on finished cohorts does not settle which measure will fit 698 views · 2 likes · 0 reposts · 0 replies Open on X →

Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 ✓@lymanstoneky4 Sep

@lymanstoneky The explosion of online misogyny seems like one major cause. Especially with IRL social interaction declining, lots of young women aren't seeing that normal men *aren't* like that. The ubiquity of porn, which helps fuel the misogyny, seems like the equivalent for 547 views · 18 likes · 0 reposts · 4 replies Open on X →

Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 ✓@lymanstoneky4 Sep

Yes, there are many reasons I believe that popularizing TFR1 as a novel indicator called TMR is a bad idea. Some of those reasons amount to concerns over TFR1 as an indicator, and some amount to concerns over the TMR label. I'm unsure what the point about incomplete cohorts is. 1.8K views · 1 likes · 0 reposts · 0 replies Open on X →

Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 ✓@lymanstoneky4 Sep

If you call it TFR1, you can reasonably argue it's just some kind of quirky mathematical indicator that can take anomalous values. When you rebrand it into layman's terms as the "Total Maternity Rate," the plain-English reading of which is "The rate at which women become 2.1K views · 2 likes · 0 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →

Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 ✓@lymanstoneky3 Sep

The negative TMR-implied childlessness on that chart is not a glitch to be embarrassed about. It is the period signal that the baby-boom surge in motherhood was unsustainable. TMR is not a childlessness census. It is a period measure of entry into parenthood. When (1 − TMR) 2.6K views · 3 likes · 0 reposts · 0 replies Open on X →

Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 ✓@lymanstoneky3 Sep

@lymanstoneky Your objections to my paper keep shifting, almost daily. First, “M” could mean marital. Then TMR can exceed 1 during baby booms, so it cannot be a probability. Then TMR is not completed-cohort childlessness. Then PPR should replace it. Now the decomposition is a 2.1K views · 1 likes · 0 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →

Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 ✓@lymanstoneky3 Sep

@lymanstoneky @FrankelGarion There was a presidential re-election campaign centered on the existence of a “War on Women” with only the incumbent president being pitched as a way to stop it. Then nothing changed because it was entirely fake and based on nonsense, which everyone wh 625 views · 13 likes · 0 reposts · 0 replies Open on X →

Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 ✓@lymanstoneky3 Sep

Star Trek: Strange New World season 1episode 11, "A Quality of Mercy" is incredibly based. How did they make that episode in 2022. An unabashed nuclear cowboy apologetic. We need this energy in more TV. They that have not the will to pull the trigger cause great evils. 2.7K views · 12 likes · 0 reposts · 2 replies Open on X →

Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 ✓@lymanstoneky3 Sep

@lymanstoneky This also tracks with how most people think things are more dangerous now when in actuality every statistic shows the opposite for both crime and war 525 views · 8 likes · 0 reposts · 0 replies Open on X →

Face aux comptes de taille comparable

10 posts des 90 derniers jours, à côté de la tranche de 10K–100K abonnés. portée ordinaire pour sa taille, réaction plus faible que la moyenne.

Vues médianes1 260ce compte924médiane pour 10K–100K

Portée, %3.09%ce compte3.62%médiane pour 10K–100K

Engagement, %0.29%ce compte1.52%médiane pour 10K–100K

Indicateur	Ce compte	Médiane pour 10K–100K	Rapport
Vues médianes par post	1 260	924	1.36×
Portée (vues ÷ abonnés)	3.09%	3.62%	0.85×
Taux d'engagement	0.29%	1.52%	0.19×

Autres comptes de cette tranche → Comparer avec un autre compte → Comment ces repères sont établis →

Growth & engagement

How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.

Views per post

5253 Sep

2.7K

625

2.1K

2.6K

2.1K4 Sep

1.8K

547

698

453

Last 10 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.

Engagement rate per post

1.52%3 Sep

0.53%

2.08%

0.14%

0.15%

0.14%4 Sep

0.05%

4.02%

0.43%

0.00%

Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views. Median for 10K–100K accounts is 1.52%.

What the audience does

Likes73.2%60 in total

Replies9.8%8 in total

Quotes3.7%3 in total

Bookmarks13.4%11 in total

Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.

The follower curve appears once this account has two daily snapshots — we take one a day, and this one is on its first.

Derniers posts

Face aux comptes de taille comparable

Growth & engagement

Views per post

Engagement rate per post

What the audience does

Comptes similaires