Mike Fragoso ✓
@mike_frags
Fellow @EPPCdc, former counsel to @SenMcConnell, @SenJudiciaryGOP “That talented young lawyer with an Italian name” -Chuck Schumer
5 829Followers
846Following
7 254Posts total
637.3KViews on collected posts
Ultimi post
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@mike_frags The narrative that Paxton doesn't raise money is false, by the way.
https://t.co/v7QDmha28b
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@elonmusk In sum, the race should be winnable but it will just take money. That requires responsible political actors urging persuasively that it be spent or responsible funders just doing it. Instead we’ll probably just get finger pointing and jockeying for position after his lo
3.2K views · 30 likes
· 2 reposts · 1 replies
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If Trump doesn’t engage, that leaves (5). @elonmusk probably doesn’t want to be represented by Talarico so he could just deploy his pac to nuke him. Again, how isn’t hard. No need to get cute. No AI. Just pay some pros who have done it before. Same goes for the Club etc.
3.4K views · 30 likes
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He has enough money to smash Talarico in the way that’ll work. Positive ads about Trump’s record won’t cut it. Paxton’s problem isn’t Trump; it’s Paxton. And the solution is destroying Talarico. Every day that goes by, the more expensive this will get.
3.2K views · 33 likes
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“We turned Texas blue because of corruption” will be the framing theme for the Dem crusade against Trump in his remaining lame duck. Every deal his family has made will be presented in the lens of Paxton as evidence that voters actually care. He shouldn’t want that!
3.1K views · 21 likes
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Which brings us to (4). SLF donors expect precision to get to 51. MAGA Inc. donors are supporting POTUS’s priorities. Paxton should be a priority for POTUS! Yes, he knifed Cornyn in the primary for Paxton. (“Paxton would have won anyway” is non falsifiable.) But that’s not it.
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That argument is bolstered if you propose redirecting money from likely-loss states like NC and GA. They’re expensive, too, and unlike in TX there isn’t a clear and obvious path to victory with mucho dinero. But who knows what undergirds those SLF commitments.
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Traditionally SLF is ruthless with its spend. Ron Johnson hated MM for cutting WI loose in 2016. But in 2022 it was smart money so MM spent big there. (Johnson still hates him.) Which means you can’t Mau-Mau it into spending on Paxton. If the math doesn’t support it, good luck.
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So some here have complained “it’s crazy to spend in NH and not TX.” You can probably buy every ad in NH between now and November for the cost of a lesser TX media market. NH (if polls support it) is a value play when deploying finite resources. The resources *are* finite.
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The mega rich don’t just throw money at SLF. That’s not how they got to be mega rich! They expect smart spends. That means they respect SLF finding value propositions. The problem with Texas is that it’s a money pit. Its vastness means it’s very expensive and SLF isn’t LUC-rate.
3.1K views · 25 likes
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(3) Is tricky. Yes, SLF has lots of money under Thune’s stewardship. But those donor relationships have been cultivated by Senate leadership over a decade and the goal is to get to 51 as ruthlessly and efficiently as possible. This means SLF competes across the map.
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Then you have (2). They have lots of money but also lots of commitments. Thanks to Colorado II’s demise, though, they can coordinate attacks w Paxton in a cost-effective way. Co.s who want to be Paxton investors should think about working w the committees. (Assume CA4 is stayed.)
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That said, he’s still 50/50 odds at being a U.S. Senator! A smart play for companies is to see this as an investment opportunity. You can be one of his few friends if you open up the checkbook. And, for better or worse, he’s good to his friends!
3.7K views · 25 likes
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So what does this mean money-wise? (1) Paxton is in the strongest position to do this in a cost effective and controlled way but he has no money. Apart from his reputed laziness I’ve heard stories about his fundraisers being High MAGA—poison to corporate $$.
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Talarico is up with positive ads and glowing coverage. Yes he’s a twerp, but his nice Christian affect probably works for lower information Rs and Is. You need to smash him and smash him personally. Nothing cute. Just quotes of him saying crazy shit. Use his affect against him.
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Paxton needs to convince them to “vote for the crook: it’s important” à la Edwin Edwards. That worked bc his opponent was David Duke. The play is to make Talarico toxic to those R and I voters. Lots of people here think that’s self evident. It’s not. Most people aren’t here.
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It’s not hard to see why! But for the vast majority of them it’s a binary choice: Paxton or Talarico. They aren’t going to decide they like Paxton, so positive ads won’t help him. They’re voting for Abbott, so they’re Rs on policy, which means policy ads won’t help either.
5K views · 27 likes
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But first background. All the polls show Paxton underperforming a victorious Abbott. That’s good and bad. It’s good bc it means the TX electorate is pro Republican and Abbott can deliver victory. It’s bad bc it means a material number of Rs and Is simply dislike Paxton.
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This was never my side of the house, but you see a thing or two over the years even if you’re official.
There are basically five or so pots of money here: (1) Paxton campaign, (2) NRSC/RNC, (3) SLF, (4) MAGA Inc., (5) assorted other pacs.
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Agree. But the challenge is Republicans need to spend to save senate seats in Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, Maine and flip Michigan. And we now have to spend money to save Texas because some morons replaced a safe incumbent with a deeply flawed nominee who has turned Texas into a toss up.
507K views · 842 likes
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Rispetto ad account della stessa dimensione
20 post degli ultimi 90 giorni, accanto alla fascia di under 10K follower. sotto i pari sia per copertura sia per interazione.
Visualizzazioni mediane3 368questo account1 839mediana per under 10K
Copertura, %57.79%questo account131.20%mediana per under 10K
Interazione, %0.76%questo account1.58%mediana per under 10K
| Metrica | Questo account | Mediana per under 10K | Rapporto |
|---|---|---|---|
| Visualizzazioni mediane per post | 3 368 | 1 839 | 1.83× |
| Copertura (visualizzazioni ÷ follower) | 57.79% | 131.20% | 0.44× |
| Tasso di interazione | 0.76% | 1.58% | 0.48× |
Altri account di questa fascia → Confronta con un altro account → Come sono costruiti questi parametri →
Growth & engagement
How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.
Views per post
4.9K1 Sep
3.7K
3.5K
3.3K
3.1K
3K
2.9K
2.7K
2.7K
3.1K
3.2K
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1912 Sep
Last 14 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.
Engagement rate per post
0.74%1 Sep
0.78%
0.69%
0.63%
0.89%
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0.73%
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0.80%
1.20%
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0.52%2 Sep
Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views. Median for under 10K accounts is 1.58%.
What the audience does
Likes39.9%1 370 in total
Reposts4.2%145 in total
Replies48.8%1 678 in total
Quotes4.7%160 in total
Bookmarks2.4%83 in total
Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.
The follower curve appears once this account has two daily snapshots — we take one a day, and this one is on its first.
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