Windmill Capital
@windmillcapHQ · India · joined 26 May 2021
Simple portfolios. Data-driven • Windmill Capital Private Limited • SEBI-regd RA: INH200007645 • SEBI-regd PMS: INP000009852 • Dsclsr: https://t.co/QT5Up3i6A5
15 349Followers
14Following
2 863Posts total
6.8KViews on collected posts
Ultimi post
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We tracked 1,075 Indian companies from Dec 2017 to Jun 2026.
Every listed company worth ₹500cr+ at the start. 18 six-month snapshots. Tracked by ISIN so mergers and renames don't break the trail.
The multibagger numbers you've read are mostly wrong. Here's why 🧵
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India's FDI just hit a record $94.5B.
Net FDI: $7.65B. Still near zero.
Same report. Same year. Nobody's talking about the second number.
🧵
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A 60-year-old adhesives brand just posted a growth number that shouldn't be possible at its size, and it's using the cash in a way that says a lot about what's coming next.
https://t.co/BEZyorj7FQ
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One of India's most admired IT brands is down 36% this year. Its answer isn't cost-cutting; it's a bet most people wouldn't expect from a services company.
https://t.co/vJqsx6pK9C
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An Indian IT company just agreed to pay more than double the target market price, and the market punished the stock for it. The reasoning behind the premium is stranger than it looks.
https://t.co/GcwvrjNxTX
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One pharmaceutical company delivered on almost every promise it made investors three months ago, down to specific drug approvals landing on schedule.
https://t.co/8yRv3mWxz0
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A "boring" diesel engine maker just had its best trading day in years. It's not because of engines.
https://t.co/7yw6hp3DwE
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A pharma company that got hit with an FDA warning letter is now closing out almost every loose end from that chapter, bar one.
https://t.co/9f9TLzCLwy
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Six Indian companies just made moves that don't fit their own reputations. One old-economy "boring" name just had its biggest stock day in years. One IT major is betting a 140% premium says more about fear than value. Here's what actually happened.
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@windmillcapHQ You read ya phir AI ne read kiya
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Bottom line:
Strong business. Complicated structure.
The business earns your attention. The structure earns your caution.
Not a buy/sell reco. Just the homework most people skip. 📊
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The IPO structure itself:
100% fresh issue. No OFS. RIL holds 66.43% pre-issue and isn't selling a single share.
But Rs 27.5K cr of proceeds repays RJIL's external borrowings. The rest is general corporate purposes.
This issue cleans the balance sheet. It doesn't fund new growth.
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Our scorecard:
Moat 5/5 | Industry 4/5 | Management 4/5 | Business model 4/5
Risk 2/5 | Related parties 2/5 | Litigation 1/5 | Credibility 2/5
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Interest expense nearly doubled in one year: Rs 490 cr → Rs 865 cr.
Growth targets are drawn from a report Jio itself commissioned — not independent research. No disclosed revenue targets, capex, or timelines behind JioBrain or international expansion.
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India's digital economy is projected to go from $200bn today to $1.4T by FY31.
Broadband is in <10% of Indian homes. 5G is early. AI is barely monetized.
The runway is genuinely long.
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Now the part most people won't read 528 pages to find:
Total litigation exposure: Rs 37,124 cr across 28 active proceedings.
Not a rounding error.
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Why the moat is real:
99% population coverage, 10 lakh km of fibre, built over 10 years. No new entrant replicates that.
Proprietary hardware, OS, apps, devices — all in-house. No Ericsson, no Nokia. A structural cost advantage.
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Jio's IPO is coming.
We read all 528 pages of the DRHP.
Not for the valuation — for the qualitative signals most investors never see.
Thread 🧵
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The business itself is hard to argue with:
524M customers
~60% of India's wireless data traffic
Largest telco outside China
Not just mobile — broadband, streaming, cloud, AI on one platform
Moat score: 5/5
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Most investors think picking sectors is the starting point. It's actually where the process goes wrong. https://t.co/FlGXnLd8Lv
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Rispetto ad account della stessa dimensione
20 post degli ultimi 90 giorni, accanto alla fascia di 10K–100K follower. sotto i pari sia per copertura sia per interazione.
Visualizzazioni mediane244questo account949mediana per 10K–100K
Copertura, %1.59%questo account3.31%mediana per 10K–100K
Interazione, %0.75%questo account1.88%mediana per 10K–100K
| Metrica | Questo account | Mediana per 10K–100K | Rapporto |
|---|---|---|---|
| Visualizzazioni mediane per post | 244 | 949 | 0.26× |
| Copertura (visualizzazioni ÷ follower) | 1.59% | 3.31% | 0.48× |
| Tasso di interazione | 0.75% | 1.88% | 0.40× |
Altri account di questa fascia → Confronta con un altro account → Come sono costruiti questi parametri →
Growth & engagement
How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.
Views per post
677 Jul
113
51
105
28
1.1K15 Jul
304
416
256
319
231
281
88411 Aug
4867 Sep
Last 14 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.
Engagement rate per post
1.49%7 Jul
0.88%
1.96%
0.00%
3.57%
0.26%15 Jul
0.66%
0.72%
0.78%
0.63%
0.87%
0.36%
0.57%11 Aug
0.21%7 Sep
Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views. Median for 10K–100K accounts is 1.88%.
What the audience does
Likes42.1%16 in total
Replies50.0%19 in total
Bookmarks7.9%3 in total
Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.
The follower curve appears once this account has two daily snapshots — we take one a day, and this one is on its first.
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