ChrisO_wiki ✓
@ChrisO_wiki
Independent military history author and researcher. Coffee tips are appreciated! https://t.co/t1EjNrIZ2c Now also at https://t.co/4qGQ2ffHJJ
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372Following
95 045Posts total
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@ChrisO_wiki With the Trump administration, you never know whether such a warning comes with post scriptums like: "... but if we get Greenland, you can take Spitzbergen", "... however, we would not care about a few Baltic States" or: "... unless i get 50% of the prey, and 20% mor
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29/ "Or maybe we won't, and only then will Ratcliffe write about it in his memoirs. The only question is whether you or I will be alive to read them." /end
Sources:
🔹 https://t.co/ICGZB4ifAZ
🔹 https://t.co/MSSnM7Lr1Q
🔹 https://t.co/5Bli9rqG7a
🔹 https://t.co/WRtQhcYBVe
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28/ "A government plane carrying a reciprocating envoy departed Russia. Perhaps it was Sergei Naryshkin, who had already been in contact with Ratcliffe. We'll understand from statements in the coming days what was discussed in Moscow.
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27/ "Will they fully invoke Article 5 of the NATO Charter, or will they limit themselves to the same measures as in 2022—that is, supplies and sanctions? Does Trump need a war on the European front when he's been trying to leave Europe for the second year?
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26/ "Strategically, this makes more sense than spending another year [fighting] at Sloviansk.
Then Ratcliffe flew in to explain how the United States would respond. And herein lies the key unknown.
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25/ …mobilisation resources, or psychological preparedness. In other words, Russia would mobilise, covertly or not, switch its economy to a war footing, and attack a weak link instead of a fortified one.
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24/ "The second: not to continue fighting against the Ukrainian drone line, where the initiative has been lost and every metre costs lives, but to strike at Europe, which supports Ukraine but is itself unprepared for war, either in terms of air defence capabilities,…
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23/ "Putting it all together, there are only two scenarios that would compel the CIA Director to visit. The first is nuclear. Burns flew to Ankara for a second time in November 2022, to meet with Naryshkin, specifically to warn against this option.
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22/ "A few weeks ago, the CIA warned its European allies about impending hybrid attacks. Meanwhile, we're talking about mobilisation, which no one has convincingly refuted, plus some decisive step is being discussed that would allow us to seize the initiative.
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21/ "However, our side usually puts on a constructive front in such cases, waits for a pretext, and then starts hammering the Nazis with renewed vigour."
Igor Dimitriev suggests that Ratcliffe was delivering a warning about how the US would response to a Russian escalation:
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20/ "So the Yanks are feigning concern and lavishing attention on our side, so that Moscow gets its share of attention and continues the bloody drudgery without making any sudden moves.
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19/ "The quantity and quality of Kyiv's drones, supplied by the EU, are, in effect, capable of inflicting damage equivalent to a series of nuclear strikes, which would trigger the provisions of the Russian Federation’s Nuclear Deterrence Doctrine.
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18/ "Russia is so suppressing grain exports from Ukraine (periodically receiving counterattacks) that grain prices have risen. And the burning of each other's marketplace logistics is plunging the populations of both countries into a frankly pre-nuclear state.
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17/ "At the same time, we personally note that the visit took place at a time when the parties entered a phase of the most severe escalation, which is increasingly impacting the global situation.
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16/ Other commentators link the visit to growing concerns that Russia might escalate the war in response to Ukraine's long-range drone strikes and the near-stalemate on the front lines. 'Two Majors' writes:
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15/ "And this question was both urgent and important. And yes, the question is: what Russian aircraft from the presidential flight detachment flew west an hour after Ratcliffe's departure? This is a great mystery. For now."
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14/ "One thing is clear: if Witkoff and Kushner were not the ones who flew to Moscow, but Ratcliffe, then the conversation is no longer just about political formulations. Concrete tools of pressure and negotiation may be on the table – the question is, about what exactly.
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13/ "Of course, this does not mean that history is repeating itself. But the principle is similar: the CIA Director arrives in person when the issue is too sensitive for ordinary diplomacy.
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12/ "This draws a parallel with 2021. Then, CIA Director William Burns visited Moscow to deliver a warning from Washington to the Russian leadership regarding the preparation of a military operation against Ukraine.
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11/ "Therefore, Ratcliffe's arrival is likely not the creation of a new channel, but rather the elevation of an existing channel to a higher level. Previously, a phone call was sufficient. Now, a personal meeting is required.
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10/ "They spoke by phone in March 2025 and agreed to maintain direct contact to resolve crisis situations and reduce confrontation. Later, Naryshkin said that they could contact each other practically at any time.
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9/ "In the area of intelligence agencies, real red lines, confidential warnings, and information about the military intentions of the parties are usually discussed.
It is also important that Ratcliffe's contact with the head of the SVR, Sergei Naryshkin, did not begin today.
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8/ "There is a third option: a broader discussion about the risk of a direct confrontation between Russia and NATO. For such a conversation, the CIA Director is even better suited than diplomats.
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7/ …strikes. The second is negotiation. If Moscow is ready to make certain concessions, limiting American intelligence support for Ukraine could be part of a deal. However, it's unclear where we can retreat from our current, and already quite modest, negotiating positions.
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6/ "Therefore Ratcliffe could be useful to Trump in two opposite scenarios. The first is a warning to Moscow. If Russia is not ready to soften its conditions for ending the war, the United States may expand support for Kyiv, primarily in the areas of intelligence and long-range…
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5/ "It helps Kyiv track Russian assets and conduct long-range strikes, including against oil infrastructure. Washington has already shown that it can limit such assistance if it wants to put pressure on the Ukrainian leadership.
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4/ Baranchik calls Ratcliffe "a completely different type of negotiator, especially when it comes to Ukraine. Ratcliffe is responsible for American intelligence, and US intelligence data remains one of the key resources for Ukraine."
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3/ It's unclear who he actually met with. Yuri Baranchik focuses on the unique qualities which Ratcliffe brought to the meeting, in contrast to Trump's favoured but so far unsuccessful negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner – neither of whom are professional diplomats.
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Em comparação com contas do mesmo porte
56 posts dos últimos 90 dias, ao lado da faixa de 100K–1M seguidores. aparece para mais gente do que contas do mesmo porte.
Mediana de visualizações20 288esta conta6 023mediana para 100K–1M
Alcance, %7.94%esta conta1.58%mediana para 100K–1M
Engajamento, %0.98%esta conta0.99%mediana para 100K–1M
| Métrica | Esta conta | Mediana para 100K–1M | Proporção |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mediana de visualizações por post | 20 288 | 6 023 | 3.37× |
| Alcance (visualizações ÷ seguidores) | 7.94% | 1.58% | 5.02× |
| Taxa de engajamento | 0.98% | 0.99% | 0.99× |
Outras contas desta faixa → Comparar com outra conta → Como estas referências são construídas →
Growth & engagement
How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.
Views per post
13.8K26 Aug
13.6K
13.8K
13.9K
16.1K
157.3K
18.3K
18.1K
15.4K
15.4K
17.9K
7.4K
15.1K
2.5K
Last 14 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.
Engagement rate per post
1.06%26 Aug
0.98%
0.88%
0.93%
0.84%
0.13%
0.88%
0.83%
0.92%
0.86%
0.79%
0.46%
0.38%
0.72%
Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views. Median for 100K–1M accounts is 0.99%.
What the audience does
Likes93.8%4 316 in total
Reposts2.0%93 in total
Replies0.8%37 in total
Quotes0.2%10 in total
Bookmarks3.2%147 in total
Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.
The follower curve appears once this account has two daily snapshots — we take one a day, and this one is on its first.
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