Jonah Lupton ✓
@JonahLupton · NYC / Miami / Boston · joined 29 Apr 2008
CEO/CIO at @FirstWaveFund, long-biased hedge fund, we look for undervalued growth stocks with under appreciated catalysts that have 3x upside within 3 years.
554 541Followers
2 898Following
193 814Posts total
6.9MViews on collected posts
Posts recentes
Procurando novos posts…
@JonahLupton agree with u. but still its pretty nuts how we are on the opposing side of a debate with the big short
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@JonahLupton Clowns that get paid to push FUD, on a subscription basis.
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@JonahLupton rental price going up says demand outstrips supply today, it says nothing about the residual value in year four
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This can’t be right… because Michael Burry told me that GPUs would be worthless after a few years ☠️
B200 prices up 21% MoM… that must be horrible for the ai infrastructure buildout 🙄 how can we afford the capex 😫
Stop listening to all the clowns that love to push FUD and
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· 5 reposts · 8 replies
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GPU rental prices are on the move 👀
B200’s are +21% over the last month, now priced at $7.19/hr
$IREN $NBIS $CRWV https://t.co/pa1cWoemgc
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Memory stocks should not be trading at an average of 4x 2027 EPS while energy stocks trade at an average of 12x 2027 EPS
Let’s compare $XOM (Exxon) to $SKHY (SK Hynix)…
$XOM EV is $725B
SK Hynix EV is $950B (using SK local numbers vs $SKHY because the ADR trades at a 40%
21.2K views · 86 likes
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One thing that puzzles me… even oil companies, selling a basic commodity are trading at higher forward multiples than memory companies:
Shell $SHEL: 9.31x FY2027 earnings
BP $BP: 9.38x FY2027 earnings
ExxonMobil $XOM: 15.38x FY2027 earnings
Chevron $CVX: 15.89x FY2027 earnings h
22.3K views · 29 likes
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$11 trillion of capex for the ai infrastructure buildout from 2024 through 2029 is a very large number… it’s approximately 30% higher than my own estimate which was $8.5 trilliion during this same timeframe.
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Semianalysis: AI CAPEX FROM '24 to '29 is $11 Trillion
OMG! https://t.co/R0e8H0Hyjy
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$CLS looks so damn cheap right now compared to $DELL and $HPE
$DELL trading at 19.5x CY2027 EPS
$HPE trading at 13.1x CY2027 EPS
$CLS trading at 16.3x CY2027 EPS
$DELL expected to grow EPS at a 16% CAGR in CY2027 and CY2028
$HPE expected to grow EPS at a 10% CAGR in CY2027
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$TMDX just announced a new CFO... most recently he was the CFO at GE Healthcare ... I think this was a good decision by Waleed and/or the Board... the c-suite needed to get better... especially with regards to guidance, transparency and communications.
In the same press
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$NKE and $LULU have been crushed... not only are they broken stocks but they are broken companies with a revolving door in the c-suite... both companies stopped innovating as fast as necessary to fend off the emerging brands that have been taking market share for years although h
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Memory stocks looking like they want to breakout... $DRAM $SNDK $MU $WDC
SK Hynix, Micron, Samsung, Kioxia, Sandisk are trading at an average of 4.8x NTM EPS and 4.2x CY2027 EPS... with EPS expected to grow at an average of 58% in CY2027 ...and that estimate is probably too low
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Token prices dropping will increase demand exponentially!!!
Let’s use storage (per GB) as an example…
Over the past 20 years the cost of storage has decreased by 98% however over that same time frame the demand for storage has increased by 120,000%
Token prices dropping is
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AI token prices just dropped below $1 for the first time ever
Bloomberg is framing this chart as a warning sign for the AI trade. I think they have it completely backwards
This is one of the most bullish charts in the market and here's why:
Tokens are the input cost of every h
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Capex payback period for the neoclouds... especially $NBIS ...is getting shorter and shorter... this is a post from Reddit https://t.co/btLqMAhFCr
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$AVGO is crushing it 🔥 these numbers are just wild and this is with some supply constraints and bottlenecks. https://t.co/7iV61Ew8AZ
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Based on conversations with the sell side, talking to management teams, listening to earnings calls and compiling some of the whisper numbers floating around... my 2027 hyperscaler capex estimate is now at $1.5 trillion and here's the breakdown:
$AMZN $350B
$GOOG $350B
$MSFT
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$AVGO (Broadcom) down -4% AH because FY2026 Q4 guidance was a little light but these FY2026 Q3 numbers are very impressive...
Revenues up +86% YoY
Operating income up +92% YoY
Net income up +95% YoY
EPS up +96% YoY
Meanwhile the stock trades 22x NTM EPS 😂
Chart looks https://t
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Walking to a restaurant right now so I'm typing as fast as possible… $NBIS is best in class for many reasons… if their strategy was just to keep doing hyperscaler deals I’d be less bullish but I believe they’re one of the few neoclouds (or neoscalers) that has a truly
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I'm super bullish on memory stocks because I believe the supply constraints will last until 2028... especially after recent commentary from CEOs of $AMZN, $GOOG, $MSFT, $META, $SKHY, $MU, $SAMSUNG and others.
These memory companies are trading at 3-5x NTM EPS (not including
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$TSLA found support in the right place... fibs, trendline https://t.co/tvJlk2fIHF
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$GOOG / $GOOGL found support in the right place... 200d, fibs, trendline, VWAP https://t.co/RybQdDQ90z
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Big support area for $DXYZ https://t.co/NK3rg0tOfO
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$NOW looks interesting here on the pullback to the .786 fibs from March lows to June highs https://t.co/LjiyS78icJ
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$TSLA now trying to bounce off VWAP from March lows... inside the channel... with 50% fibs retracement just below https://t.co/qssvzyuWzu
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$TSLA about to test VWAP from March lows https://t.co/tEICJWRfSG
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Big spot for $GOOG, testing the 200d https://t.co/HC2iFP0i4o
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Big spot for $ISRG, testing the 100m and trendline from 2020/2022 lows https://t.co/QPcaplZ3hc
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@JonahLupton @FirstWaveFund It looks like you may be vastly underestimating $NBIS and $IREN top line and vastly overestimating their short term profitability.
What gives you the indication that they are going to slow expansion, slow capex, and focus on margins at this stage?
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Em comparação com contas do mesmo porte
29 posts dos últimos 90 dias, ao lado da faixa de 100K–1M seguidores. aparece para muita gente, mas poucos desses espectadores reagem.
Mediana de visualizações21 218esta conta5 983mediana para 100K–1M
Alcance, %3.83%esta conta1.49%mediana para 100K–1M
Engajamento, %0.32%esta conta0.93%mediana para 100K–1M
| Métrica | Esta conta | Mediana para 100K–1M | Proporção |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mediana de visualizações por post | 21 218 | 5 983 | 3.55× |
| Alcance (visualizações ÷ seguidores) | 3.83% | 1.49% | 2.57× |
| Taxa de engajamento | 0.32% | 0.93% | 0.34× |
Outras contas desta faixa → Comparar com outra conta → Como estas referências são construídas →
Growth & engagement
How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.
Views per post
28.8K3 Sep
18.6K4 Sep
24.5K
43K10 Sep
26.1K11 Sep
22.5K
23.8K
22.3K12 Sep
21.2K
8.5K15 Sep
12.8K
74
4
2
Last 14 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.
Engagement rate per post
0.46%3 Sep
0.75%4 Sep
0.42%
0.42%10 Sep
0.55%11 Sep
0.13%
0.47%
0.16%12 Sep
0.52%
0.45%15 Sep
0.54%
2.70%
0.00%
0.00%
Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views. Median for 100K–1M accounts is 0.93%.
What the audience does
Likes74.5%2 287 in total
Reposts5.4%165 in total
Replies8.3%256 in total
Quotes1.2%37 in total
Bookmarks10.6%324 in total
Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.
The follower curve appears once this account has two daily snapshots — we take one a day, and this one is on its first.
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