Jim Bianco ✓
@biancoresearch · Chicago, IL · joined 08 Sep 2010
Macro investment research at https://t.co/hQqAza8GGP Our total return index is at https://t.co/vta9eqevnU The ETF WTBN tracks our Index. biancoresearch.eth
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Now 73% probability the Fed hikes on October 28, the week before the midterms.
Can the Fed disappoint the market? (See below) https://t.co/k6lvmeAwM8
61.4K views · 267 likes
· 40 reposts · 38 replies
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1/2
Wall Street overwhelmingly believes the Fed will NOT hike on October 28, as it is a week before midterm election day.
Makes sense... so why is the market still pricing in a >50% chance of a hike? https://t.co/SXH6FDo0Rm
70.4K views · 168 likes
· 20 reposts · 30 replies
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In December 1988, federal agents arrested 25-year-old Kevin Mitnick for stealing software from Digital Equipment.
According to Mitnick's memoir, the prosecutor told the magistrate, "He can whistle into a telephone modem and launch a nuclear missile from NORAD."
Three judges htt
48.7K views · 258 likes
· 44 reposts · 25 replies
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NEW: The average Bitcoin ETF Holder is back above water for the first time since January. The rally this morning has bitcoin:native above our estimated ETF cost basis of $81,722 per coin. h/t @EricBalchunas https://t.co/h21zuvTxj6
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Trump said this on the tarmac in North Carolina Wednesday night after the Fed hiked rates.
Trump is telling Warsh how to vote????
And I told — I talked to Kevin and I said, “You might as well vote with the board because it’s not going to matter.”
---
Verbatim transcript
Trump:
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· 11 reposts · 32 replies
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Warsh Should Have Exposed the Fed!
If President Trump’s account is accurate, Kevin Warsh missed a defining opportunity.
The Federal Reserve did not merely raise rates. It demonstrated how far America’s central bank has drifted from a transparent, data-driven institution toward
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· 71 reposts · 48 replies
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Rational Dissent Episode 009.
Did the Fed Get it Right?
Kevin Warsh delivered the first hike in a few years as persistent inflation bites; was it the right move?
Available on YT, Apple, Spotify, Overcast, etc.
---
Chapters
00:00 – Introduction & FOMC Rate Hike Overview https:/
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33:45
Crossing this afternoon
*FRANCE'S CREDIT RATING DOWNGRADED TO A+ FROM AA- AT SCOPE
The U.S. credit rating is AA+
--
Trump will be upset because he thinks Sovereign (Government) yields are set by credit rating. The best credit rating gets the lowest yield.
As the chart shows, ht
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Anthropic is building a "wet lab" in the San Francisco Bay Area.
--
Now it makes sense!
The reason they are worried that AI will end humanity is that they are the ones who are going to end it with AI!!
61.4K views · 452 likes
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1/3
There's a narrative that the Fed can't hike on October 28 because it's the week before the midterms.
Somebody should tell the market because it's pricing the probability of an October 28 hike at 60%, and it is rising. https://t.co/2WGxwra5hK
43.6K views · 258 likes
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In 2018, when Powell was new and hiking rates, Trump said he was "a very good man" and, "I am not happy about it. But at the same time, I’m letting them do what they feel is best.”
We know how that movie ended.
Are we sure "this time will be different?"
https://t.co/3D0OuPKq8B
35K views · 158 likes
· 7 reposts · 22 replies
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EXCLUSIVE: Anthropic quietly sets up biology lab as it ramps AI drug program https://t.co/MHrTxpWDHL https://t.co/MHrTxpWDHL
255.4K views · 473 likes
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Warsh is a political genius. And in playing the politics he protected the Fed’s independence.
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I give JP Morgan credit for acknowledging this.
Much better than making things up, like I'm sure a lot of others are doing.
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Paging @donnelly_brent
Both of these covers came out TODAY.
Time to back up the truck and buy? https://t.co/mj2nC9M4aD
24.3K views · 225 likes
· 21 reposts · 36 replies
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The Fed did not make a policy error yesterday by hiking rates.
They ended a two-year policy mistake yesterday.
Explained below.
41.5K views · 264 likes
· 22 reposts · 61 replies
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1/3
The repost is correct.
But the Fed adopted the PCE (orange) as its measure in 2000, not CPI (blue).
Core PCE was 2.8% in Sept. 24 and was falling when the rate cuts began.
It is now 3.3% and rising, as they started hiking.
Viewed this way, hikes look more appropriate. h
45.2K views · 116 likes
· 8 reposts · 24 replies
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Stop saying "the Fed can't print oil." It's a lazy comment.
Maybe, without a supply shock muddying the water, the Fed would have seen more easily that deglobalization ended goods deflation, which masked problematic services infaltion and hiked sooner.
If so, long-term yields
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· 12 reposts · 31 replies
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What did the Fed accomplish by raising rates today?
For the first time in over half a century, a completed prolonged rate-cutting cycle produced HIGHER long-term interest rates.
The market has been telling the Fed for 2 years that it had the wrong policy.
They finally https:/
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· 69 reposts · 66 replies
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Warsh did not submit a dot for the 2nd time in a row. The chart shows 18 dots (not 19).
So I still believe he doesn't want to commit to any kind of forward guidance.
Any headlines or discussions suggesting he gave forward guidance will probably be misunderstandings. https://t.c
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*FED UNANIMOUSLY RAISES BENCHMARK RATE 25 BPS TO 3.75%-4% RANGE
So all the discussion in the table below was a waste of time. Half the voters did not follow through on what they said in the last few weeks.
We are still at Warsh will decide, and everyone else can be ignored.
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1/6
A popular narrative is the Fed will make a mistake by hiking into a supply shock ("The Fed cannot print oil!")
Wrong metric!
Core PCE has run above 2% for 65 months.
This suggests something bigger is happening and focusing on near-term oil/diesel spikes misses it.
🧵 htt
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· 57 reposts · 62 replies
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1/5
I have the opposite conclusion.
Fed cutting has been a two-year policy error that (hopefully) ends tomorrow with a hike (91% prob now).
This chart shows that since the Fed started cutting rates on Sept. 18, 2024, the 10-year yield is UP 1.30%
@AnnaEconomist @fundstrat ht
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· 62 reposts · 76 replies
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2/2
At this point, the question isn't whether they should hike, but what the vote will be.
Below is my worksheet. Based on public statements, I have it as five votes to hike, six votes to hold, and one unknown (Jay Powell).
If the Fed is truly worried about its independence, h
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1/2
The probability of a hike on Wednesday is 95% https://t.co/aoY1aW3wnm
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· 69 reposts · 80 replies
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Oh wow.
Is she trying to argue that we're having a worse "Liz Truss moment" and it's not her fault?
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The odds of a serious Fed policy mistake are uncomfortably high and rising. Markets are all but certain the Fed will raise rates a quarter point at next week’s meeting, and are pricing in more to come. But the economy is already growing near potential (2% real GDP growth) and
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1/7
In the thread below, we note that diesel prices are soaring.
Another short 🧵on why
tl:dr, it's the war. But the "other war" ... Russia-Ukraine.
(The fact that we have an "other war" speaks volumes about the state of the world.)
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1/3
Below is our latest podcast; this week's topic was commodities.
Diesel is an important part of the commodity story.
short 🧵
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Em comparação com contas do mesmo porte
45 posts dos últimos 90 dias, ao lado da faixa de 100K–1M seguidores. aparece para muita gente, mas poucos desses espectadores reagem.
Mediana de visualizações70 380esta conta5 983mediana para 100K–1M
Alcance, %9.03%esta conta1.49%mediana para 100K–1M
Engajamento, %0.51%esta conta0.93%mediana para 100K–1M
| Métrica | Esta conta | Mediana para 100K–1M | Proporção |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mediana de visualizações por post | 70 380 | 5 983 | 11.8× |
| Alcance (visualizações ÷ seguidores) | 9.03% | 1.49% | 6.06× |
| Taxa de engajamento | 0.51% | 0.93% | 0.55× |
Outras contas desta faixa → Comparar com outra conta → Como estas referências são construídas →
Growth & engagement
How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.
Views per post
119.8K18 Sep
255.4K
35K
43.6K
61.4K
38.4K
33.8K
110.8K19 Sep
73.8K
100.8K21 Sep
62K
48.7K22 Sep
70.4K23 Sep
61.4K
Last 14 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.
Engagement rate per post
0.31%18 Sep
0.31%
0.54%
0.73%
0.88%
0.73%
0.27%
0.51%19 Sep
0.24%
0.56%21 Sep
0.57%
0.69%22 Sep
0.32%23 Sep
0.57%
Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views. Median for 100K–1M accounts is 0.93%.
What the audience does
Likes66.9%8 884 in total
Reposts8.3%1 105 in total
Replies8.7%1 157 in total
Quotes2.2%295 in total
Bookmarks13.8%1 829 in total
Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.
The follower curve appears once this account has two daily snapshots — we take one a day, and this one is on its first.
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