Ben Price

@hailhavocwx

NWS Springfield Meteorologist | OU🔴⚪️ ➡️ OU🟢⚪️ Meteorology | M.S. on tornado structure interactions with terrain | Writing books and music | Opinions my own

635Followers

288Following

323Posts total

873.4KViews on collected posts

Posts recentes

Ben Price@hailhavocwx12 Aug

@hailhavocwx This thread gives me serious nostalgia for the old twitter 2K views · 85 likes · 0 reposts · 2 replies Open on X →

Ben Price@hailhavocwx11 Aug

(16/16) So all things considered, the radar analysis supported increased chances of forecasted tornadogenesis, only if the line was balanced. Which it was not until later, when it actually produced some mesovorts that produced some notable damage on the east side of Baltimore. 3.9K views · 112 likes · 4 reposts · 4 replies Open on X →

Ben Price@hailhavocwx11 Aug

(15/16) So interestingly, if the the tor warnings were still in effect at this time, that would have been lead time of 15-30 mins! For QLCS tors! If confirmed, of course. Tho, this occurred after the system had caught up and become more balanced after passing Baltimore. 3.8K views · 72 likes · 0 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →

Ben Price@hailhavocwx11 Aug

(14/16) However! What's interesting is that once the storm passed Baltimore, there may have actually been 1-3 QLCS tors that were in the Tor Warning boxes, but after they had been canceled (There's actually decent damage pictures coming from the areas that TBWI showed rotation). 3.8K views · 78 likes · 0 reposts · 3 replies Open on X →

Ben Price@hailhavocwx11 Aug

(13/16) Based on the reference sheets above, the number of confidence builders has met the number recommended for a Tor Warning (This is a recommendation!! Final decision is up to the forecaster). But, since the system was not balanced, the method is technically not valid here... 4K views · 65 likes · 2 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →

Ben Price@hailhavocwx11 Aug

(12/16) Descending RIJ ✅️; Surge/Bow ✅️; Inflection ❌️; Inflow Notches ❌️; UDCZ Entry Point ❌️; Reflectivity Nub ❌️; Boundary Ingestion ✅️; Mesovort ❌️; Contracting Bookend ❌️; TDS ❌️. Reflectivity Tag ❌️; 0-3 km MLCAPE >40 ✅️; Cell Merger or Z Spike ✅️. https://t.co/JNOTyYPnyi 4.2K views · 70 likes · 0 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →

Ben Price@hailhavocwx11 Aug

(11/16) So, once the 3 Ingredients are met, there are a number of "confidence builders" and "nudgers" that can aid in a specific convective warning decision. The graphic below lists these. Let's count what we have here right before the tornado warning was issued: https://t.co/D2x 4.6K views · 76 likes · 2 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →

Ben Price@hailhavocwx11 Aug

(10/16) What this entails, is that since the radar data gets fed directly into AWIPS, it takes time for the velocity products to update with the other products, which can give the illusion of velocities lagging westward which could make this line appear balanced. 4.6K views · 61 likes · 0 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →

Ben Price@hailhavocwx11 Aug

(8/16) Nuance here tho. This method has only recently been gaining steam. Many operational methods take a long time to be fully utilized systematically, often needing testing and publishing. Then it takes even more time for each people to be to sufficiently trained on it. 4.9K views · 74 likes · 2 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →

Ben Price@hailhavocwx11 Aug

(9/16) So, let's for a moment assume the 3 Ingredients Method were met here. Nobody ever knows the exact chain of events that actually occurred. So as a random example, let's assume a common radar/AWIPS limitation leads to the confirmation of the 3 Ingredients Method... 4.7K views · 63 likes · 0 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →

Ben Price@hailhavocwx11 Aug

(7/16) But as others have correctly pointed out, the line was outflow dominant. The velocities related to the surge (UDCZ) were well ahead of the reflectivity front. So, the Three Ingredients were NOT met here, lowering the chances for a tornado occurring. https://t.co/zJRggBJlpA 5.5K views · 77 likes · 0 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →

Ben Price@hailhavocwx11 Aug

(6/16) There was definitely an RIJ punch that was beginning to surge the storm out ahead with very quickly dropping reflectivities in the rear of the storm. Everyone's radar screenshot shows this. So there was a bow/surge ✅️ 5.8K views · 78 likes · 0 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →

Ben Price@hailhavocwx11 Aug

(5/16) These ingredients are 1) Balanced/shear dominant portion of QLCS, 2) 30 kt component of the line-normal 0-3 km shear vectors, 3) Surges/bow in the line. Here, 0-3 km shear vectors were around 30 kts oriented straight east, which is directly perpendicular to the line ✅️ htt 7K views · 98 likes · 3 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →

Ben Price@hailhavocwx11 Aug

(4/16) So let's deep dive into some radar. Recent internal research is searching for ways to operationally warn QLCS tors ahead of time. One such method is the "3 Ingredients Method". Basically, 3 ingredients in QLCS events are recommended to increase chances of tornadogenesis. 7.6K views · 78 likes · 3 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →

Ben Price@hailhavocwx11 Aug

(3/16) An important note is that warnings are also forecasts. It does nobody good if a tor occurs, lifts, then warned when there is none anymore. That happens a lot with QLCS tors. So if you want to warn the public *before* a tor occurs, there will inherently be false alarms. 7.8K views · 98 likes · 2 reposts · 2 replies Open on X →

Ben Price@hailhavocwx11 Aug

(2/16) This was a QLCS event. Tors in QLCS's are notoriously hard to warn, especially *with lead time*. Often, warnings are sent after the tor already starts, and sometimes sent after it ends since they can start and end in between scans (both false alarm & missed POD). 8K views · 119 likes · 2 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →

Ben Price@hailhavocwx11 Aug

🧵 (1/16) Instead of defending and/or attacking anyone, I'd like to make this conversation as a kinda cool educational moment for all. There is 100% some scientific radar analysis here that both sides have yet to consider. Follow this thread for some interesting info! 164.7K views · 527 likes · 97 reposts · 34 replies Open on X →

Ben Price@hailhavocwx10 Aug

so uhhhhhh..... why do we have 1.5 million people under tornado warnings for storms that are clearly not rotating...? big wind threat for sure, but tornado warnings for stuff like this make no sense to me https://t.co/Fnm6d4mMWE 626.7K views · 915 likes · 52 reposts · 100 replies Open on X →

Em comparação com contas do mesmo porte

18 posts dos últimos 90 dias, ao lado da faixa de under 10K seguidores. aparece para mais gente do que contas do mesmo porte.

Mediana de visualizações4 830esta conta4 175mediana para under 10K

Alcance, %760.55%esta conta250.82%mediana para under 10K

Engajamento, %1.49%esta conta1.41%mediana para under 10K

Métrica	Esta conta	Mediana para under 10K	Proporção
Mediana de visualizações por post	4 830	4 175	1.16×
Alcance (visualizações ÷ seguidores)	7.6× audience	2.5× audience	3.03×
Taxa de engajamento	1.49%	1.41%	1.06×

Outras contas desta faixa → Comparar com outra conta → Como estas referências são construídas →

Growth & engagement

How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.

Views per post

7.6K11 Aug

5.8K

5.5K

4.7K

4.9K

4.6K

4.2K

3.8K

3.9K

2K12 Aug

Last 14 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.

Engagement rate per post

1.07%11 Aug

1.45%

1.37%

1.43%

1.36%

1.56%

1.36%

1.72%

1.71%

1.72%

2.11%

1.95%

3.10%

4.33%12 Aug

Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views. Median for under 10K accounts is 1.41%.

What the audience does

Likes81.5%2 746 in total

Reposts5.0%169 in total

Replies4.7%157 in total

Quotes1.6%53 in total

Bookmarks7.2%243 in total

Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.

The follower curve appears once this account has two daily snapshots — we take one a day, and this one is on its first.

Posts recentes

Em comparação com contas do mesmo porte

Growth & engagement

Views per post

Engagement rate per post

What the audience does

Contas semelhantes