Black Bird Group
@Black_BirdGroup · Finland · joined 14 Aug 2022
Security & Conflict Analysis NGO. Eyes on the Russian military and the war in Ukraine. contact(at)https://t.co/ieyvX2rlLn Map on our website
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418Posts total
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According to our data, in August the net gains of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine were approximately 133km².
Russian gains are slowly increasing again, but their gains remain extremely limited. Russian gains are a far cry of those from last year.
1/ https://t.co/PlmOf93IT8
110.6K views · 415 likes
· 89 reposts · 7 replies
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@Black_BirdGroup You should also post a version of that graph without the total occupied area beginning at 110k. Just to give a better perception of what we're actually talking about in the grand scheme of things. I get why one is needed starting at that point, but so is one from
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As in July: it's possible that the lack of results on the battlefield and the deepening economic costs of the war will bring Russia to the negotiation table.
However, currently there is no clear indication of renewed Russian interest in good faith negotiations. 8/8
4K views · 72 likes
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However, mobilization would incur a significant political cost to the Russian leadership, and thus would not materialise before the legislative elections in mid-September.
Signals from within Russia remain mixed and it's possible that a final decision has not yet been made.
7/
4.2K views · 70 likes
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As in July, the Russian options for escalation remain limited.
Most likely option is a mobilization of forces to offset Russias struggling recruitment.
This could give Russia enough manpower to form new units and threathen new areas of the UA-RU border.
6/
3.1K views · 66 likes
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Although July saw the fastest advance for the Russians since January, there still isn't any offensive momentum.
The data shows that over the year of 2026 Russia has lost much of its previous advantages, but Ukraine hasn't managed to turn this into reliable gains either.
4/
3.9K views · 75 likes
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In the big picture: Russia has largely ran out of options on the battlefield. Significant operational developments are currently extremely unlikely.
With their economy struggling due to Ukraine's long-range campaign, it's likely that Russia will attempt to escalate the war.
5/
3.5K views · 78 likes
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In the border areas, the Russians have expanded their infiltration operations into the Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts.
These operations take advantage of the spread out Ukrainian lines but are unlikely to create significant issues for Ukraine in the near term.
3/
4.4K views · 68 likes
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Most of the Russian gains were made in Northern Donetsk West of Siversk, where the Russian 3CAA is pushing towards Kramatorsk.
Limited gains were also made east of Kostyantinivka, where nearly all of the city is now in the grey zone, and near Huliaipole.
2/
6.5K views · 73 likes
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According to our data, in July the net gains of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine were approximately 106km².
This is the fastest Russian advance since January, but their gains remain extremely limited. In July of 2025 the Russians captured nearly 5 times as much territory.
1/
146.7K views · 236 likes
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According to our data, in June the net gains of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine were approximately minus 9km².
This is the second net-negative month for the Russians in 2026. Before this, the previous net-negative months (within Ukraine) were in 2023.
1/ https://t.co/BdPUX
126.5K views · 709 likes
· 162 reposts · 27 replies
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According to our data, in May the net gains of the Russian armed forces were approximately 82km².
Despite their advance in Kostyantinivka, the Russian forces are struggling to regain offensive momentum amidst instensifying Ukrainian mid-range strikes and local counterattacks.
1/
52.8K views · 230 likes
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@Black_BirdGroup No idea what is the x-axis, it says “month” but what month? You can label x-axes also, just like y-axis, you know.
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And here is a fixed graph with months correctly labelled.
We encountered issues exporting the graph to PNG that we did not catch before publication.
Sorry for the inconvenience. https://t.co/AHT8btLHSN
15.7K views · 91 likes
· 7 reposts · 1 replies
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While the Russian gains are falling behind last years pace of advance, it's likely that they will intensify their operations over the summer months.
It's likely that the Russian goals remain largely unchanges, with main operational focus on the capture of Donetsk oblast.
5/5
16.1K views · 62 likes
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Large scale expansion of operations in these areas would require the shifting of Russian forces away from the current main directions of attack.
Instead these cross-border operations are likely meant to fix UA forces and pursue Putin's promise of a border security zone.
4/
18K views · 60 likes
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Significant part of the Russian gains were also made on the Kharkiv and Sumy borders where it made multiple over-the-border incursions and expanded existing ones.
However, the incursions are currently not likely to pose a large scale operational threat to Ukraine.
3/
19.7K views · 71 likes
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According to our data, in April the net gains of the Russian armed forces were approximately 94km².
Russian offensive attempts continue to struggle, while the frontline on the southern front has largely consolidated after the Hulijaipole offensive of February and March.
1/ http
518.8K views · 329 likes
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Russian forces advanced piecemeal on the Slovyansk, Pokrovsk and Kostyantinivka sectors and regained some lost positions in the Huliaipole area.
Ukrainian counterattacks made tactical gains on Luhansk, Lyman and Zaporizhzhia sectors.
Grey zones are expanding on all sectors.
2/
23.8K views · 76 likes
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На фоне аккаунтов своего размера
10 постов за последние 90 дней рядом с диапазоном 10K–100K подписчиков. показывается большему числу людей, чем аккаунты того же размера.
Медианные просмотры4 112этот аккаунт924медиана для 10K–100K
Охват, %11.82%этот аккаунт3.62%медиана для 10K–100K
Вовлечённость, %1.62%этот аккаунт1.52%медиана для 10K–100K
| Показатель | Этот аккаунт | Медиана для 10K–100K | Отношение |
|---|---|---|---|
| Медианные просмотры на пост | 4 112 | 924 | 4.45× |
| Охват (просмотры ÷ подписчики) | 11.82% | 3.62% | 3.26× |
| Вовлечённость | 1.62% | 1.52% | 1.07× |
Другие в этом диапазоне → Сравнить с другим аккаунтом → Как считаются эти ориентиры →
Growth & engagement
How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.
Views per post
15.7K2 May
4.4K3 May
52.8K4 Jun
126.5K5 Jul
146.7K4 Aug
6.5K
4.4K
3.5K
3.9K
3.1K
4.2K
4K
2.2K
110.6K5 Sep
Last 14 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.
Engagement rate per post
0.64%2 May
0.07%3 May
0.53%4 Jun
0.73%5 Jul
0.20%4 Aug
1.19%
1.57%
2.40%
1.97%
2.14%
1.67%
1.83%
0.18%
0.47%5 Sep
Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views. Median for 10K–100K accounts is 1.52%.
What the audience does
Likes76.8%2 788 in total
Reposts11.2%407 in total
Replies1.8%67 in total
Quotes1.7%62 in total
Bookmarks8.4%306 in total
Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.
The follower curve appears once this account has two daily snapshots — we take one a day, and this one is on its first.
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