Dawie Scholtz

@DawieScholtz · joined 10 Mar 2011

Proudly South African. Management consultant most of the time. Tweeting about politics some of the time. Elections nerd, who used to work for the DA (2010-2014)

75 448Followers

171Following

6 721Posts total

338.7KViews on collected posts

Последние посты

Dawie Scholtz@DawieScholtz16 Sep

Just so we’re clear, driving this issue is a vote winner for the ANC. 51.7K views · 258 likes · 62 reposts · 60 replies Open on X →

Dawie Scholtz@DawieScholtz16 Sep

An electoral lifeline for the ANC in the midst of what to date has been the weakest ANc campaign in living memory. 12.9K views · 72 likes · 21 reposts · 21 replies Open on X →

Dawie Scholtz@DawieScholtz9 Sep

@DawieScholtz It all boils down to Mbalula’s ineptitude which, ironically, may be one of the best things to happen to South Africans. 😂🤣 Whoever thought buying that man the position was a good idea did the rest of us a massive favour. 😂🤣😂🤣 Sometimes political incompetence is a 542 views · 5 likes · 0 reposts · 2 replies Open on X →

Dawie Scholtz@DawieScholtz9 Sep

For the nerds. Here's the JHB math, simplistically. The ANC has 85/135 wards today. Let's say they get 80/135. 80/270 seats=29.6% They need to get 30% of the overall vote for a PR seat. They got 32% in JHB '24 and will certainly go down. I have them at 25-29%. I.e. no PR seats 37.3K views · 337 likes · 47 reposts · 30 replies Open on X →

Dawie Scholtz@DawieScholtz9 Sep

PSA: If you're on the ANC PR list in JHB position 3 or lower, you are absolutely, 100%, not getting elected. 20.5K views · 134 likes · 31 reposts · 7 replies Open on X →

Dawie Scholtz@DawieScholtz9 Sep

One wonders if the ANC has done the basic electoral math in Joburg yet... 🧐 4.5K views · 37 likes · 2 reposts · 7 replies Open on X →

Dawie Scholtz@DawieScholtz9 Sep

A very important caveat: The ANC likely won't have PR councillors in JHB after the election - only ward councillors. So the mayoral candidate needs a ward. I.e. they need to retire a ward councillor & force a by-election. And we know how by-elections go in JHB for the ANC... 57.4K views · 160 likes · 45 reposts · 20 replies Open on X →

Dawie Scholtz@DawieScholtz8 Sep

Chikane left off ANC mayoral list in ‘error’, explains Mbalula https://t.co/4lQ8k7A17T https://t.co/AU75veeol2

125.9K views · 101 likes · 24 reposts · 73 replies Open on X →

Dawie Scholtz@DawieScholtz13 Aug

I've done some elections modelling on the metros. See my thoughts and expectations here: https://t.co/hBoPoX05lH Great chat - thanks for the opportunity @Jonathan_Moakes! Done 3 weeks ago and I promise without knowledge of recently-released polling (but very aligned). 28.1K views · 99 likes · 28 reposts · 14 replies Open on X →

На фоне аккаунтов своего размера

9 постов за последние 90 дней рядом с диапазоном 10K–100K подписчиков. показывается широко, но откликается мало кто.

Медианные просмотры28 150этот аккаунт1 012медиана для 10K–100K

Охват, %37.31%этот аккаунт3.76%медиана для 10K–100K

Вовлечённость, %0.84%этот аккаунт1.67%медиана для 10K–100K

Показатель	Этот аккаунт	Медиана для 10K–100K	Отношение
Медианные просмотры на пост	28 150	1 012	27.8×
Охват (просмотры ÷ подписчики)	37.31%	3.76%	9.92×
Вовлечённость	0.84%	1.67%	0.51×

Другие в этом диапазоне → Сравнить с другим аккаунтом → Как считаются эти ориентиры →

Growth & engagement

How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.

Views per post

28.1K13 Aug

125.9K8 Sep

57.4K9 Sep

4.5K

20.5K

37.3K

542

12.9K16 Sep

51.7K

Last 9 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.

Engagement rate per post

0.52%13 Aug

0.20%8 Sep

0.40%9 Sep

1.05%

0.85%

1.12%

1.29%

0.92%16 Sep

0.76%

Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views. Median for 10K–100K accounts is 1.67%.

What the audience does

Likes60.4%1 203 in total

Reposts13.0%260 in total

Replies11.7%234 in total

Quotes4.3%85 in total

Bookmarks10.6%211 in total

Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.

The follower curve appears once this account has two daily snapshots — we take one a day, and this one is on its first.

Последние посты

На фоне аккаунтов своего размера

Growth & engagement

Views per post

Engagement rate per post

What the audience does

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