Jon Stokes ✓

@jon_stokes · Austin, TX · joined 02 Jul 2008

Author. Coder. CTO. θηριομάχης. Building: https://t.co/otXT4Wy6WR. Writing: https://t.co/dBPBtyCIHw.

33 450Followers

1 541Following

58 169Posts total

264.6KViews on collected posts

Последние посты

Jon Stokes ✓@jon_stokes10 Sep

I ask this sincerely and non-rhetorically: how do you not know that they literally make these numbers up? (Ok if we want to be disciplined about it, they made them up in the past & then update them based on new vibes & X + GC chatter.) 1.2K views · 30 likes · 1 reposts · 0 replies Open on X →

Jon Stokes ✓@jon_stokes9 Sep

Flagged for reading the linked papers later, but in general “x-risk from AI-powered bioterror or home grown nukes” is a very different worldview & set of arguments from rationalist X-risk discourse, lumping them together benefits the latter at the expense of the former. 1.3K views · 12 likes · 0 reposts · 0 replies Open on X →

Jon Stokes ✓@jon_stokes9 Sep

This thread is so gonzo on multiple levels that it’s separating the true believers (in p(doom)) from the fellow travelers. I’m seeing people who kept their heads down b/c of the doomers cool kid status finally break ranks over this. Not naming, but some of you know. 4.1K views · 56 likes · 2 reposts · 3 replies Open on X →

Jon Stokes ✓@jon_stokes9 Sep

Must one be an Effective Altruist (EA) or a Yudkowskian Rationalist (YR) to give credibility to AI x-risk claims? Not necessarily. A 🧵 3.7K views · 35 likes · 2 reposts · 2 replies Open on X →

Jon Stokes ✓@jon_stokes9 Sep

As I Do the Reading & work my way through the doomer literature from the von Neumann–Morgenstern utility theorem forward, the AI <=> markets analogies continue to be useful. A side effect is it becomes hard to escape the idea of a kind of SEC => FINRA for frontier labs. 1.9K views · 13 likes · 0 reposts · 2 replies Open on X →

Jon Stokes ✓@jon_stokes9 Sep

I do not know how Anthropic or OpenAI employees come up with these apocalypse probabilities but the risks are not worth taking, even if they were off by an order of magnitude. 31.7K views · 236 likes · 14 reposts · 30 replies Open on X →

Jon Stokes ✓@jon_stokes9 Sep

@TaylorLorenz @krishnanrohit I think government mandated independent oversight of the labs is a good idea and that failure to do so could have grave irreversible consequences 26.3K views · 290 likes · 17 reposts · 6 replies Open on X →

Jon Stokes ✓@jon_stokes30 Aug

@jon_stokes You are right that the bad behavior should not be a surprise to people who have been following along. But your argument about alignment is dumb: you prove that if an agent is misaligned and continues to be, then it stops being misaligned because it's not surprising an 982 views · 22 likes · 0 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →

Jon Stokes ✓@jon_stokes30 Aug

@jon_stokes @LoganDobson You screwed up the joke. The two hard problems are naming, cache invalidation and off by one errors. 3.5K views · 41 likes · 3 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →

Jon Stokes ✓@jon_stokes30 Aug

@jon_stokes The argument seems to boil entirely down to “this was predictable” and “we can bayes our way through it.” But what if we can’t bayes our way through it? If that were not possible, would increased concern (rather than decreased concern) be warranted? 777 views · 16 likes · 0 reposts · 0 replies Open on X →

Jon Stokes ✓@jon_stokes30 Aug

https://t.co/UQ3KeMUhHD 189.2K views · 401 likes · 40 reposts · 38 replies Open on X →

На фоне аккаунтов своего размера

11 постов за последние 90 дней рядом с диапазоном 10K–100K подписчиков. показывается большему числу людей, чем аккаунты того же размера.

Медианные просмотры3 489этот аккаунт927медиана для 10K–100K

Охват, %10.43%этот аккаунт3.40%медиана для 10K–100K

Вовлечённость, %1.19%этот аккаунт1.54%медиана для 10K–100K

Показатель	Этот аккаунт	Медиана для 10K–100K	Отношение
Медианные просмотры на пост	3 489	927	3.76×
Охват (просмотры ÷ подписчики)	10.43%	3.40%	3.07×
Вовлечённость	1.19%	1.54%	0.77×

Другие в этом диапазоне → Сравнить с другим аккаунтом → Как считаются эти ориентиры →

Growth & engagement

How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.

Views per post

189.2K30 Aug

777

3.5K

982

26.3K9 Sep

31.7K

1.9K

3.7K

4.1K

1.3K

1.2K10 Sep

Last 11 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.

Engagement rate per post

0.27%30 Aug

2.06%

1.29%

2.34%

1.19%9 Sep

0.88%

0.77%

1.07%

1.50%

0.93%

2.64%10 Sep

Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views. Median for 10K–100K accounts is 1.54%.

What the audience does

Likes58.8%1 152 in total

Reposts4.0%79 in total

Replies4.2%83 in total

Quotes1.7%33 in total

Bookmarks31.3%613 in total

Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.

The follower curve appears once this account has two daily snapshots — we take one a day, and this one is on its first.

Последние посты

На фоне аккаунтов своего размера

Growth & engagement

Views per post

Engagement rate per post

What the audience does

Похожие аккаунты