Alexander Stahel 🌻 ✓
@BurggrabenH · Zug, Switzerland · joined 22 Oct 2014
Investor; you are here for energy & metal commodities mostly; be aware of imposters (I won’t ask for your business)
144 536Followers
5 881Following
44 953Posts total
235.2KViews on collected posts
โพสต์ล่าสุด
กำลังค้นหาโพสต์ใหม่…
🚨Dear all,
The fraudsters and impersonators have migrated from X to pretty much every social-media platform these days, including Substack, Telegram and even WhatsApp.
Please note: I will NEVER reach out to you, directly or indirectly, to solicit your business, offer https://t.
6.1K views · 46 likes
· 9 reposts · 1 replies
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@BurggrabenH Dear Alex, your ability to read the commodity markets in their complexity Is unmatchable. Tank you for sharing it.
Btw I guess you left the side lines and enter the markets again. Or am I wrong?
6.9K views · 1 likes
· 0 reposts · 1 replies
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Good morning Vietnam… https://t.co/2omIObrwmT
10.6K views · 128 likes
· 20 reposts · 1 replies
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Brent at $96. European diesel at $191.
The oil crisis has migrated downstream: damaged refineries, reduced runs, the wrong grades, depleted stocks & freight consuming the arb.
Crude is available. The product the world needs most - diesel - is not. The Great Value Migration in
29.5K views · 365 likes
· 63 reposts · 20 replies
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@BurggrabenH Finally, someone sees it correctly. You don't have to have huge storage if you are an exporter.
393 views · 4 likes
· 0 reposts · 2 replies
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@BurggrabenH Key concept few understand. Well done sir.
313 views · 1 likes
· 0 reposts · 1 replies
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PS: here is a list of knowledgeable accounts with vastly different backgrounds that call it as they see it in oil...
@BrentRuditLeo
@cbjom
@OilCfd
@JavierBlas
@UrbanKaoboy
@ed_fin
@MaleehaMBCC
@Rory_Johnston
@Big_Orrin
@Iris62655179
@JoeBeattie11
@ManchesterUtd81
7.4K views · 46 likes
· 2 reposts · 10 replies
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My message? Don’t fall for misleading perma-bull arguments.
This has been—and remains—a structural bear market since late 2022. 2025 looks especially risky.
As for U.S. crude inventories, they actually seem a bit high from a better perspective.
8/n Thx US Crude Oil Inv ex SPR
7.1K views · 50 likes
· 1 reposts · 3 replies
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For perspective, the U.S. still imports about 2.5 million barrels per day (net).
However, that’s a 75% reduction from ~10 million barrels per day in 2010—a massive shift in energy independence!
6/n US Net Crude Imports (in kbpd) https://t.co/bZOdpJKWvS
3.1K views · 30 likes
· 1 reposts · 1 replies
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Back in 2010, the U.S. imported 10 million barrels per day, mostly from the Middle East—and we all know what that meant (Iraq wars, geopolitical entanglements, etc.).
Those days are over, at least for now, thanks to U.S. shale and Canadian heavy. Ok, Mexico plays a role too. In
3.1K views · 25 likes
· 0 reposts · 1 replies
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Canadian oil imports are crucial for the U.S. refining system to achieve the right crude mix.
U.S. shale oil is too light & sweet on its own, meaning refiners need heavier Canadian crude to balance the blend and optimize product yields. The extra light oil it doesn't need is now
4.1K views · 31 likes
· 1 reposts · 1 replies
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What’s certain is that the U.S. has become far more geopolitically self-sufficient in oil in 2025 vs 2010.
This is driven by tripled domestic production (!) and captive Canadian heavy oil imports, which—due to their dedicated pipeline system—must be exported to the U.S. for now.
3.7K views · 31 likes
· 0 reposts · 2 replies
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Including SPRs, the picture looks more normalised - but not tight. But does the US really need 700mb of strategic reserves in 2025? I don't think so.
3/n US Crude Inv incl SPRs https://t.co/BAbLYuua8V
36.1K views · 28 likes
· 0 reposts · 5 replies
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The problem with their logic?
a) The U.S. is no longer the marginal importer of crude oil—Asia is (or was).
b) U.S. inventories are artificially high on a 10-year average due to the shale boom, which took off in 2014. Shale growth and Covid distort the data, keeping inventories
4.2K views · 45 likes
· 1 reposts · 1 replies
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On this platform, certain perma bulls keep pushing a bullish crude narrative based on relative U.S. inventories—day after day, for three years now.
Their logic: Total U.S. crude inventories (including the SPR) are at 838 million barrels (orange line), 200 million barrels below h
90.3K views · 207 likes
· 35 reposts · 18 replies
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เทียบกับบัญชีขนาดเดียวกัน
6 โพสต์จาก 90 วันที่ผ่านมา เทียบกับช่วง 100K–1M ผู้ติดตาม แสดงในวงกว้าง แต่มีผู้ชมตอบสนองน้อย.
ยอดดูมัธยฐาน8 939บัญชีนี้5 983ค่ามัธยฐานของ 100K–1M
การเข้าถึง, %6.18%บัญชีนี้1.49%ค่ามัธยฐานของ 100K–1M
การมีส่วนร่วม, %0.58%บัญชีนี้0.93%ค่ามัธยฐานของ 100K–1M
| ตัวชี้วัด | บัญชีนี้ | ค่ามัธยฐานของ 100K–1M | อัตราส่วน |
|---|---|---|---|
| ยอดดูมัธยฐานต่อโพสต์ | 8 939 | 5 983 | 1.49× |
| การเข้าถึง (ยอดดู ÷ ผู้ติดตาม) | 6.18% | 1.49% | 4.15× |
| อัตราการมีส่วนร่วม | 0.58% | 0.93% | 0.62× |
บัญชีอื่นในช่วงนี้ → เปรียบเทียบกับบัญชีอื่น → ค่าอ้างอิงเหล่านี้คำนวณอย่างไร →
Growth & engagement
How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.
Views per post
3.7K3 Apr
4.1K
3.1K
3.1K
7.1K
7.4K
313
3934 Apr
29.5K7 Sep
14.8K
10.6K
6.9K8 Sep
7.2K9 Sep
6.1K
Last 14 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.
Engagement rate per post
0.90%3 Apr
0.83%
0.83%
1.02%
0.77%
0.78%
0.64%
1.53%4 Apr
1.54%7 Sep
0.24%
1.42%
0.04%8 Sep
0.17%9 Sep
0.92%
Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views. Median for 100K–1M accounts is 0.93%.
What the audience does
Likes70.0%1 084 in total
Reposts8.7%134 in total
Replies4.4%68 in total
Quotes1.2%18 in total
Bookmarks15.8%245 in total
Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.
The follower curve appears once this account has two daily snapshots — we take one a day, and this one is on its first.
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