Bill Connelly

My next fun interaction with a Sparty fan will my first since ~2014. (12.2% of Toledo's plays gained 20+ vs. 2.4% for MSU. Even minimizing outliers, Toledo was far more explosive, and it balanced out MSU's success rate advantage. Not hard to understand.) https://t.co/VzKamMv5Gq 8.6K views · 31 likes · 0 reposts · 5 replies Open on X →

@ESPN_BillC Bill, you are the OG, but it is absolutely horrific to declare 4 explosives vs 3 explosives as "far more explosiveness" because Toledo couldn't keep their shitty offense on the field. This postgame win% is quite bad. Time to get in the lab brother. 9.6K views · 7 likes · 0 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →

Toledo also had far more explosiveness and averaged 1.9 more yards per play, and the difference between expected TO margin (+0.1 for Toledo) and actual (-1) was worth about a TD in itself. https://t.co/btzPs5JRge 22.3K views · 16 likes · 0 reposts · 4 replies Open on X →

Surprised to see this given that MSU had more total yards, passing yards, rushing yards, fewer penalties, had the ball for 43:16, and forced the game’s only turnover. Alas, still interesting. 27.4K views · 14 likes · 1 reposts · 0 replies Open on X →

@ESPN_BillC Bill, is it possible to run Michigan's numbers without the Hail Mary at the end? As a Michigan fan, I'm wondering how adding an explosive TD at the end distorts how bad Michigan's offense was for 59:59. 2K views · 4 likes · 0 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →

LOWEST POSTGAME WIN EXPECTANCY IN A WIN, WEEK 1: Troy > Sam Houston 24.6% Colorado > GT 33.8% Ole Miss > Louisville 34.8% WVU > Coastal 45.8% Michigan St > Toledo 46.6% S Alabama > SELA 49.2% LOWEST PGWE IN A NEAR-WIN: FSU vs SMU 1.4% All games here: https://t.co/STVGzhojp6 116.3K views · 226 likes · 12 reposts · 19 replies Open on X →

Bill Connelly@ESPN_BillC3 Sep

https://t.co/fuv10korVp 53.3K views · 19 likes · 0 reposts · 6 replies Open on X →

@ESPN_BillC Tennessee fan here that can at least imagine losing to NDSU. 383 views · 6 likes · 0 reposts · 0 replies Open on X →

Indeed. Big games are fun, but give me all quadbox, all the time in Week 1. Week 1’s for partially answering questions about millions of teams. The big games are better when they’re in Weeks 2-3. 29.3K views · 127 likes · 4 reposts · 3 replies Open on X →

Seen/heard a lot of complaints about the Week 1 schedule. I'm in the minority on this one, but while I understand it from the lack of BIG GAMES on TV/content side, for purely football reasons, I think it's better this way. I'd rather teams have a game under their belt before 106.7K views · 443 likes · 9 reposts · 29 replies Open on X →

(I get loads of help from @tfgridiron on those sims, so you should blame/credit him for placing "Akron and Maryland in the CFP semifinals" in your head.) 13.1K views · 19 likes · 1 reposts · 0 replies Open on X →

I used SP+ to project what SHOULD happen (conference/CFP/title odds), then I grabbed random sims to tell you what WILL happen. (Can't wait for "NDSU beats SEC champion Tennessee in the CFP.") 1 million sims = 1 million (increasingly wild) realities. https://t.co/s0uY6XEZk7 311.2K views · 340 likes · 21 reposts · 17 replies Open on X →

Btw, one of the wildest results ever: Northeastern State (14-108 from 2013-24 before surging late last year) destroying Delta State (34-11 w/2 playoff appearances, last 4 years) and overachieving against projections by 72.2 points. That'll kill the ol' error avg for a while. http 23.7K views · 106 likes · 13 reposts · 6 replies Open on X →

FWIW, things balanced out after the poor start. FCS teams ended up underachieving projections by just 2.5 PPG against D2 teams and overachieving by 3.8 (despite NW'ern State) against NAIA teams. Beat projections 59% of the time against lower divisions. 22.1K views · 36 likes · 2 reposts · 0 replies Open on X →

@ESPN_BillC https://t.co/syhW1elWJj 1.7K views · 21 likes · 1 reposts · 0 replies Open on X →