Harry Crane ✓
@HarryDCrane · New Jersey · joined 09 Nov 2015
professor, statistics @CFTC IAC consulting https://t.co/pxJQd3ZKqd player @lomabaseball https://t.co/6o5eS7QxOY https://t.co/3SjzgR8EMy
24 674Followers
202Following
1 954Posts total
922.3KViews on collected posts
Son gönderiler
Yeni gönderiler aranıyor…
The problem: disallowing federal PMs doesn’t give the same outcome, just under state control
Many states don’t allow exchanges
In those that do, every attempt has failed to get traction
Banning or limiting winners is allowed in every state
Banning winners not allowed on
6.4K views · 16 likes
· 4 reposts · 1 replies
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Nobody who read the oral transcripts can be surprised by today's Ninth Circuit ruling against Kalshi. The bigger lesson: never underestimate Article III. Congress changes. Administrations change. Court decisions stick.
My take: a loss on federal preemption isn't necessarily bad
33.4K views · 120 likes
· 7 reposts · 14 replies
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Surprising how often CFTC Rule 40.11 is misinterpreted.
The Rule allows CFTC to prohibit contracts in specific categories only if contrary to the public interest.
Not an outright prohibition of all contracts in those categories. By rule, default is to allow, not prohibit.
9.2K views · 20 likes
· 1 reposts · 5 replies
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This is the crux of the entire case in the Ninth Circuit and what made it different that the others.
CFTC Rule 40.11 prohibits designated contract markets (DCMs) from listing contracts involving:
Terrorism
Assassination
War
Unlawful activity
Gaming
Key word: "Gaming."
18K views · 12 likes
· 1 reposts · 2 replies
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To Gelman's credit, he's been pumping out junk at a near-Polson rate since before AI.
14K views · 12 likes
· 1 reposts · 4 replies
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This University of Chicago business school professor has authored 258 academic papers in 2026 (so far).
https://t.co/mUigQbJCob
130.7K views · 186 likes
· 34 reposts · 16 replies
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Not surprising at all.
Elite universities are inherently exclusionary. Inclusivity is a brand killer.
The brand is built on who gets excluded, not on who is included.
SAT is crucial for excluding bad candidates.
10.1K views · 31 likes
· 1 reposts · 5 replies
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Variance and Standard Deviation
https://t.co/KbTk3hz6Wm
1.6K views · 7 likes
· 0 reposts · 0 replies
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Properties of Expected Value
https://t.co/c6JmmBt8Rf
1.9K views · 3 likes
· 0 reposts · 1 replies
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Exercises on Expected Value
https://t.co/8Dn4Pk2P9w
3.3K views · 8 likes
· 0 reposts · 1 replies
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Expectation as a Center of Gravity
https://t.co/ZVqnvhBset
1.8K views · 3 likes
· 0 reposts · 1 replies
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St. Petersburg Paradox
https://t.co/nS2rlUtsvj
18.7K views · 23 likes
· 3 reposts · 1 replies
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Distribution Functions
https://t.co/3MQbd0fwev
2.5K views · 6 likes
· 0 reposts · 1 replies
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Examples of Random Variables
https://t.co/N73XVZ47YY
2.6K views · 4 likes
· 0 reposts · 1 replies
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Probability Mass Functions
https://t.co/mpA3i1DTJ4
2.4K views · 7 likes
· 0 reposts · 1 replies
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Interesting Coin Tossing Example
https://t.co/2TfFGVif6w
1.7K views · 2 likes
· 0 reposts · 2 replies
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Mutual Independence
https://t.co/QMsCx4wDOM
2.9K views · 3 likes
· 0 reposts · 2 replies
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Bayes Rules and the OJ Simpson Trial
One of my favorites
https://t.co/HYHMW5JEFS
7.7K views · 10 likes
· 1 reposts · 1 replies
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Review of Conditional Probability
https://t.co/FcRvsWbmPa
2.9K views · 4 likes
· 1 reposts · 2 replies
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Independence and Exchangeability
https://t.co/WiG8mGBTgc
2.8K views · 11 likes
· 0 reposts · 1 replies
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Multiplication Rule for Conditional Probability
https://t.co/OAoufpNGBd
3K views · 6 likes
· 0 reposts · 1 replies
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Analysis of the Pass Line bet in Craps
https://t.co/wvwe5vrZJ4
2.2K views · 5 likes
· 0 reposts · 1 replies
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The Law of Total Probability
https://t.co/0uKkIJKMoa
20.2K views · 42 likes
· 1 reposts · 3 replies
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Aynı büyüklükteki hesaplara karşı
Son 90 güne ait 7 gönderi, 10K–100K takipçi aralığıyla yan yana. geniş kitleye gösteriliyor, ama izleyenlerin azı tepki veriyor.
Medyan görüntülenme14 008bu hesap92410K–100K için medyan
Erişim, %56.77%bu hesap3.62%10K–100K için medyan
Etkileşim, %0.28%bu hesap1.52%10K–100K için medyan
| Ölçüt | Bu hesap | 10K–100K için medyan | Oran |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gönderi başına medyan görüntülenme | 14 008 | 924 | 15.2× |
| Erişim (görüntülenme ÷ takipçi) | 56.77% | 3.62% | 15.7× |
| Etkileşim oranı | 0.28% | 1.52% | 0.19× |
Bu aralıktaki diğer hesaplar → Başka bir hesapla karşılaştır → Bu kıyas değerleri nasıl kuruluyor →
Growth & engagement
How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.
Views per post
2.5K31 Jul
2.6K1 Aug
18.7K2 Aug
1.8K3 Aug
3.3K4 Aug
1.9K5 Aug
1.6K6 Aug
10.1K25 Aug
130.7K27 Aug
14K28 Aug
18K
9.2K
33.4K
6.4K29 Aug
Last 14 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.
Engagement rate per post
0.28%31 Jul
0.38%1 Aug
0.16%2 Aug
0.22%3 Aug
0.27%4 Aug
0.21%5 Aug
0.43%6 Aug
0.38%25 Aug
0.20%27 Aug
0.13%28 Aug
0.09%
0.28%
0.43%
0.33%29 Aug
Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views. Median for 10K–100K accounts is 1.52%.
What the audience does
Likes59.0%581 in total
Reposts5.7%56 in total
Replies7.5%74 in total
Quotes3.8%37 in total
Bookmarks24.1%237 in total
Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.
The follower curve appears once this account has two daily snapshots — we take one a day, and this one is on its first.
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