Andrew Nestico
@PracticalTAS · joined 04 Nov 2015
Tool-Assisted Melee content creator & record holder・DM or https://t.co/sNuwHQ8pj3 to 💬・views=mine
33 171Followers
539Following
27 065Posts total
377.9KViews on collected posts
Son gönderiler
Yeni gönderiler aranıyor…
Worlds isn't like other Pokemon tournaments.
The global tie rate across regionals this season was around 15%, so I built that into my simulator. But the tie rate at worlds (797 entrants) was only 11%.
With just this change, the probability of an X-1-2 cut jumps from 47% to 87%!
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The Pokemon World Championship starts today!
Pic 1: with 794 players, Masters division has a 45-50% chance that a record of X-2-1 will not be enough to make top cut
Pic 2
Seniors: 376 players, 15-20% chance
Juniors: 389 players, 20-25% chance
You might not want to ID at 5-2-0!
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My hot Rivals 2 take is that floorhugging is a branding problem, not a game design problem
Dan Fornace could end the discourse right now by giving everyone a Zangief Iron Muscle animation on successful floorhug (pic related, red not required) and calling it Tanking or something
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This might come as a shock, but there have only been twelve majors that ended with game 10 grand finals in all of Melee's history! And of those, only three were game 15s!
Hungrybox (4-0) & Mang0 (3-0) are the only players with perfect records across multiple game 10s! https://t.
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According to my research (a year or something ago) I don't believe @LiquidHbox has ever lost an in-person grand finals that went to game 10
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@zamu_zam @Chiamikaa @thefleeee Extended for 65-512 player tournaments, covering small events and juniors/seniors
https://t.co/0EiXVCqaQm
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I extended this work using the same assumptions for 65-512 player tournaments, which covers smaller events as well as Juniors (born after 2013) and Seniors (born 2010-2013).
While the pattern is the same, the shift to the right means these are much less likely to see X-1-2 cuts.
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@PracticalTAS I feel like a lot of players goals have shifted from going for a top 8 to making day 2 so they can get a limitless page addition 😅
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Special thanks to @zamu_zam, @Chiamikaa, and @thefleeee for checking my work before I posted.
(Fin)
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...and drop rate. Both of these data sets were generated using actual 2026 Pokemon TCG tournament data, with some liberties taken to aggregate similar scenarios to make the simulation simpler. https://t.co/vBdrZF3sfU
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And just to show my work, here are the values I used for tie rate... https://t.co/vIOLDwE5LT
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So you might not want to ID into Phase 2 if lots of other people also decline the ID. In that case, accepting the ID could mean that even going X-0-0 in Phase 2 might not be enough to make it to Phase 3.
But if that doesn't matter to you, feel free to go for the ID. https://t.co
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On the flipside, at an event like Indianapolis where the tie rate in this situation was only 60%, the odds of a 10-1-2 cut were higher. https://t.co/5nMbowPF8I
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The black line uses the global average of 75% for a tie in this situation. However, at an event where that number is 90%, the curve is pushed down, and the odds of an X-1-2 cut are decreased. https://t.co/xyQLiaL4ww
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But going back to just the 13 round graph, there's a margin of error in grey.
This zone was generated by changing just one variable: the probability that two players, both with 5-2-0 records in round 8, will draw and guarantee they both qualify for Phase 2. https://t.co/4b2Ceg02
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Here's my full results for tournaments from 513-4096 entrants, covering a large majority of official Pokemon TCG events in the 2026 season.
Blue = 513-1024 (12 rounds)
Orange = 1025-2048 (13 rounds)
Green = 2049-4096 (14 rounds)
Same pattern but with a slight shift. https://t.c
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To go back to our earlier example, here's where Prague was - at 1370 entrants, it only had about a 16% chance to have an X-1-2 cut. https://t.co/gkDtUAPpKW
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Meanwhile, Indianapolis with its 1974 entrants had about a 97% chance of an X-1-2 cut. What actually happened is the expected scenario, not something to be surprised about. https://t.co/uAf4ogrBGl
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So because I like doing things, I wrote a Swiss simulator using the actual 2026 Pokemon TCG format and associated data (such as tie rate & drop rate).
Here's the probability of an X-1-2 cut for 13-round events (1025-2048 entrants): https://t.co/0gyeSLtjQV
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This shows up every so often on Pokemon TCG Twitter as a point of discussion, specifically around X-2-1 not being enough to make the top cut. https://t.co/dyCb4kAkks
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If you look at the stats, it's pretty clear that entrant count has a big impact on whether that will be the case or not. https://t.co/4EjonSaNXj
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Thus, players with 31 points, which was enough in Prague, were eliminated in Indianaopolis.
This is called an X-1-2 cut. https://t.co/l3Y90sAkCp
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In this case, Cody Hope, 8th after Swiss, had 32 points. https://t.co/8zcjbC85WX
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If you look at the Indianapolis Regional, which was a much larger event with 1974 entrants, you see that the cut is not a static number. https://t.co/tqZKeNjMQY
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Since the cut is at 31 points, all of these players qualify.
This is called an X-2-1 cut, because the usual way players get here is with 2 losses and 1 tie. (X is variable depending on the number of rounds, which depends on the total number of entrants). https://t.co/PO9WTzPf7u
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The tricky part is you don't know how many points you need to have to qualify for Phase 3 because it depends on the number of points the 8th place player got.
As an example, let's look at the 1370-player Prague Regional 2026. Here are the results after the final Swiss round: htt
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Because Margherita Caponeri, in 8th after Phase 2, received 31 points, everyone* with 31 points qualified for Phase 3.
* = if 17+ players reach this threshold, only the top 16 make it; but that's a separate issue. https://t.co/gxK3UZIJ0D
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Now normally I'm a Smash youtuber and stats guy, but I like Pokemon TCG too, so a lot of my followers might not know how Pokemon TCG tournaments work.
They start with two Swiss phases, where you always play someone with the same record as you, and end with Single Elimination. ht
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TL;DR: By drawing in Round 8, even though this guarantees you qualify for Phase 2, you might be eliminating your chance of qualifying for Phase 3 (i.e. being eligible to win the tournament). https://t.co/vCjF9UIm7N
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Hi Pokemon TCG Twitter, I'm PracticalTAS and today I'm here to tell you why you might not want to Intentionally Draw at 5-2-0 https://t.co/n5xpVmNhch
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Aynı büyüklükteki hesaplara karşı
Son 90 güne ait 5 gönderi, 10K–100K takipçi aralığıyla yan yana. geniş kitleye gösteriliyor, ama izleyenlerin azı tepki veriyor.
Medyan görüntülenme41 280bu hesap92410K–100K için medyan
Erişim, %124.45%bu hesap3.62%10K–100K için medyan
Etkileşim, %0.58%bu hesap1.52%10K–100K için medyan
| Ölçüt | Bu hesap | 10K–100K için medyan | Oran |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gönderi başına medyan görüntülenme | 41 280 | 924 | 44.7× |
| Erişim (görüntülenme ÷ takipçi) | 124.45% | 3.62% | 34.4× |
| Etkileşim oranı | 0.58% | 1.52% | 0.38× |
Bu aralıktaki diğer hesaplar → Başka bir hesapla karşılaştır → Bu kıyas değerleri nasıl kuruluyor →
Growth & engagement
How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.
Views per post
1.8K5 Jun
1.7K
1.6K
1.6K
2.5K
2.5K
1.3K
8.1K6 Jun
997
44.2K16 Aug
41.3K25 Aug
43.6K27 Aug
27.4K28 Aug
7.4K6 Sep
Last 14 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.
Engagement rate per post
0.40%5 Jun
0.36%
0.61%
0.63%
0.39%
0.63%
2.03%
0.06%6 Jun
0.00%
0.03%16 Aug
2.06%25 Aug
2.39%27 Aug
0.15%28 Aug
0.58%6 Sep
Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views. Median for 10K–100K accounts is 1.52%.
What the audience does
Likes85.2%2 548 in total
Reposts2.5%74 in total
Replies2.9%86 in total
Quotes0.7%22 in total
Bookmarks8.7%259 in total
Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.
The follower curve appears once this account has two daily snapshots — we take one a day, and this one is on its first.
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