Forecasting Research Institute ✓

@Research_FRI

We advance the science of forecasting to improve decision-making on high stakes issues. Co-founded by chief scientist Philip Tetlock.

4 070Followers

26Following

327Posts total

483.6KViews on collected posts

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Forecasting Research Institute ✓@Research_FRI31 Mar

@Research_FRI the most revealing finding isn't the predictions. it's the gap between the two scenarios. base case: "no dramatic break from economic trends." conditional on rapid AI progress: 10 million fewer jobs, wealth concentration at 1939 levels. the experts are basically s 1.1K views · 11 likes · 1 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →

Forecasting Research Institute ✓@Research_FRI31 Mar

We built a tool so that you can compare your own forecasts on AI’s economic impact to economists’ forecasts: https://t.co/lCFTubx5V9 We hope this can be a useful tool for informing discourse on the economic impacts of AI. When you submit your forecasts, you will get a shareable 10.7K views · 40 likes · 5 reposts · 2 replies Open on X →

Forecasting Research Institute ✓@Research_FRI31 Mar

Thank you to all of our coauthors: @EzraKarger, Otto Kuusela, @Jabaluck, @Afinetheorem, @BasilHalperin, @toddrjones, @connacher_, @pawtrammell, @mattsreynolds1, @danmayland, Ria Viswanathan, Ananaya Mittal, Rebecca Ceppas de Castro, Josh Rosenberg, and @PTetlock For full 6K views · 27 likes · 2 reposts · 3 replies Open on X →

Forecasting Research Institute ✓@Research_FRI31 Mar

We also asked economists what they thought of six policies that might address the impact of rapid AI progress. Economists strongly favor targeted measures such as worker retraining, whereas the general public supports both targeted programs and broader interventions, including a 3.7K views · 22 likes · 4 reposts · 2 replies Open on X →

Forecasting Research Institute ✓@Research_FRI31 Mar

Most expert disagreement isn't about whether we get powerful AI systems—it's about what powerful AI systems would do to the economy. For economists' 2030 GDP growth forecasts: • 78.7% of the total variation in forecasts is driven by the uncertainty that each economist has about 3.8K views · 25 likes · 2 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →

Forecasting Research Institute ✓@Research_FRI31 Mar

Compounded over decades, small differences in GDP growth can produce large differences in prosperity. Economists’ forecast of 3.5% annual growth rate in the rapid scenario would lead to U.S. economic output of $54.7 trillion in 2050 (real GDP), 25% larger than the $43.7 trillion 3.8K views · 20 likes · 1 reposts · 2 replies Open on X →

Forecasting Research Institute ✓@Research_FRI31 Mar

Impacts on wealth inequality show similar patterns. In the rapid scenario, economists expect the top 10% of households to hold: • 75% of U.S. wealth in 2030 • 80% in 2050 https://t.co/KjjjGnWMM1 4.2K views · 21 likes · 3 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →

Forecasting Research Institute ✓@Research_FRI31 Mar

In a rapid AI progress scenario—which economists assigned a 14% probability to—economists expect much larger effects: • Annual GDP growth: 3.3% in 2030, 3.5% in 2050 (roughly comparable to 1992–2001) • Total factor productivity growth: 2% in 2030, 2.5% in 2050 (close to 4.3K views · 26 likes · 1 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →

Forecasting Research Institute ✓@Research_FRI31 Mar

Economists' median forecast of 2.5% annualized GDP growth by 2030 is still higher than most comparable forecasts used by government agencies and the private sector, which tend to be closer to 2%. https://t.co/cLQirjKdkp 5.4K views · 31 likes · 3 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →

Forecasting Research Institute ✓@Research_FRI31 Mar

What explains economists giving a high chance of substantial AI progress, yet having an overall belief that economic outcomes won’t shift dramatically? In their written rationales, economists cited the following reasons: • slow and uneven diffusion of AI across sectors • https 6.9K views · 47 likes · 5 reposts · 3 replies Open on X →

Forecasting Research Institute ✓@Research_FRI31 Mar

Despite expecting significant AI progress, economists' overall (unconditional) forecasts for the economy stay close to today's trends. Median economist forecasts: • Annual GDP growth: 2.5% in 2030 and 2050 (compared to 2.4% in 2025) • Labor force participation rate: 61% in htt 30.1K views · 51 likes · 3 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →

Forecasting Research Institute ✓@Research_FRI31 Mar

Economists expect substantial AI progress by 2030. When asked to assign probabilities to slow, moderate, and rapid AI progress scenarios, they predict a: • 39% chance of a slow progress scenario • 47% chance of a moderate progress scenario • 14% chance of a rapid progress ht 20.5K views · 49 likes · 4 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →

Forecasting Research Institute ✓@Research_FRI31 Mar

We completed the most comprehensive study of how economists and AI experts think AI will affect the U.S. economy. They predict major AI progress—but no dramatic break from economic trends: GDP growth rates similar to today's and a moderate decline in labor force participation. h 383.2K views · 645 likes · 190 reposts · 20 replies Open on X →

Growth & engagement

How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.

Views per post

383.2K31 Mar

20.5K

30.1K

6.9K

5.4K

4.3K

4.2K

3.8K

3.7K

10.7K

1.1K

Last 13 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.

Engagement rate per post

0.24%31 Mar

0.28%

0.19%

0.80%

0.65%

0.60%

0.64%

0.74%

0.75%

0.55%

0.44%

1.15%

Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views.

What the audience does

Likes47.1%1 015 in total

Reposts10.4%224 in total

Replies1.8%39 in total

Quotes2.7%59 in total

Bookmarks38.0%818 in total

Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.

The follower curve appears once this account has two daily snapshots — we take one a day, and this one is on its first.

Benzer hesaplar

Frequently asked questions about @Research_FRI

How many followers does @Research_FRI have?

4 070 followers.

How many posts has @Research_FRI published?

327 posts.

How do posts by @Research_FRI perform?

Collected posts: 13. Views: 483 600. Likes: 1 015.