Sergi Lanau
@SergiLanauOE · London · joined 20 Nov 2016
Director of Global EM Strategy @OxfordEconomics. Former @IIF @IMFNews. slanau@oxfordeconomics.com
23 339Followers
613Following
4 836Posts total
626.3KViews on collected posts
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@SergiLanauOE Sky-high? 11-13% yield right now.
Dirt cheap for a country with a budget surplus and about to get a windfall of fx from oil and mining exports in the next 5 years.
You will be proven wrong on this too.
FYI, 2001 was not about the real exchange rate.
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@SergiLanauOE The 2001 argentinian general default was initiated by a bank run regarding the USD deposits in the local plaza. Now, again the country is repeating the same mistake, allowing the banking creation of USD denominated deposits. While the government is using the people'
2.3K views · 29 likes
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Argentina's real exchange rate will soon be as appreciated as in late 2001. There won't be a default any time soon but sky-high bond valuations are incompatible with the major external imbalances that are brewing. https://t.co/GZzIJKE49m
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Capital flows to Turkey surged in May and the current account deficit was unusually small for this time of the year. A tailwind for the ongoing carry trade but not a structural shift. Policies will eventually loosen too much and vulnerability will re-emerge. https://t.co/9fDT2VXf
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Turkey has the reserves and capital flows to continue pegging the exchange rate for a while. Problem is that eventually real appreciation and credit growth will worsen the current account too much. But for the time being, summer of Turkish carry. https://t.co/6BVVVGXjZ9
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FDI into Mexico last year was ~ $30bn, roughly in line with the 2014-22 average. But most of it was the accounting of profits by existing foreign-owned companies. Fresh investment was low. Near-shoring may well benefit Mexico in coming years but so far the impact is modest. https
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@SergiLanauOE There are things about Argentina that are not understood from a blackboard in Oxford. In 2018, the greengrocer in my neighborhood was in favor of a paternal government. Today, he calls for setting fire to the central bank and adjusting public spending.
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@SergiLanauOE Come back to Oxford and keep studying, you know nothing about Argentina sausage. Everything is possible in this amazing country.
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Milei wants to improve Argentina's primary balance by 5.5% of GDP quickly. Almost no IMF program in history did that. The typical program achieves just 1% of GDP in adjustment. Macri tried 4.8% in late 2018 and everything blew up. History will repeat itself. https://t.co/SnihsMdD
528.5K views · 462 likes
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Growth & engagement
How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.
Views per post
528.5K27 Mar
25.4K
3.4K
4.2K
15.7K22 May
4.1K27 Jun
14.7K12 Jul
27.9K23 Jan
2.3K
7026 Jan
Last 10 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.
Engagement rate per post
0.18%27 Mar
4.27%
1.98%
1.49%
0.50%22 May
0.34%27 Jun
0.29%12 Jul
0.39%23 Jan
1.41%
0.00%26 Jan
Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views.
What the audience does
Likes70.4%1 821 in total
Reposts9.4%242 in total
Replies10.5%271 in total
Quotes4.1%105 in total
Bookmarks5.7%147 in total
Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.
The follower curve appears once this account has two daily snapshots — we take one a day, and this one is on its first.
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