Suproteem Sarkar ✓

@SuproteemSarkar

Assistant Professor @UChicago

1 015Followers

274Following

82Posts total

98KViews on collected posts

Son gönderiler

Suproteem Sarkar ✓@SuproteemSarkar4 Sep

@SuproteemSarkar Out of all things that do not make sense, this does not make sense the most. 2.7K views · 50 likes · 0 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →

Suproteem Sarkar ✓@SuproteemSarkar4 Sep

more information here: https://t.co/1FbPsGONpc comments are very welcome! 5.5K views · 24 likes · 2 reposts · 0 replies Open on X →

Suproteem Sarkar ✓@SuproteemSarkar4 Sep

coherence varies quite a lot across models, by around two orders of magnitude. higher coherence is also associated with higher accuracy https://t.co/wyY0pIjnkg 7.5K views · 36 likes · 2 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →

Suproteem Sarkar ✓@SuproteemSarkar4 Sep

forecasts are more incoherent when there are more logical relations between events, for example joint distributions versus marginal distributions also when we add context like “I’m feeling really optimistic about this,” or even “I had coffee this morning, by the way” https://t.c 6.6K views · 22 likes · 3 reposts · 2 replies Open on X →

Suproteem Sarkar ✓@SuproteemSarkar4 Sep

suppose you ask a language model the probability it will rain tomorrow. then you ask the probability it will not rain tomorrow whatever happens tomorrow, those two probabilities should sum to one but suppose the model generates P(rain) = 0.7 and P(no rain) = 0.2 https://t.co/Qa 66.1K views · 389 likes · 34 reposts · 18 replies Open on X →

Suproteem Sarkar ✓@SuproteemSarkar4 Sep

in a new paper with Isaiah Andrews, we evaluate probabilistic coherence in language model forecasts we build a forecasting environment for models from historical stock returns. we then measure incoherence through the profit you can make by arbitraging a model’s forecasts https:/ 9.7K views · 69 likes · 7 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →

Aynı büyüklükteki hesaplara karşı

Son 90 güne ait 6 gönderi, under 10K takipçi aralığıyla yan yana. geniş kitleye gösteriliyor, ama izleyenlerin azı tepki veriyor.

Medyan görüntülenme7 041bu hesap4 175under 10K için medyan

Erişim, %693.69%bu hesap250.82%under 10K için medyan

Etkileşim, %0.60%bu hesap1.41%under 10K için medyan

Ölçüt	Bu hesap	under 10K için medyan	Oran
Gönderi başına medyan görüntülenme	7 041	4 175	1.69×
Erişim (görüntülenme ÷ takipçi)	6.9× audience	2.5× audience	2.77×
Etkileşim oranı	0.60%	1.41%	0.43×

Bu aralıktaki diğer hesaplar → Başka bir hesapla karşılaştır → Bu kıyas değerleri nasıl kuruluyor →

Growth & engagement

How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.

Views per post

9.7K4 Sep

66.1K

6.6K

7.5K

5.5K

2.7K

Last 6 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.

Engagement rate per post

0.80%4 Sep

0.68%

0.41%

0.52%

0.48%

1.88%

Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views. Median for under 10K accounts is 1.41%.

What the audience does

Likes56.3%590 in total

Reposts4.6%48 in total

Replies2.2%23 in total

Quotes1.0%11 in total

Bookmarks35.9%376 in total

Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.

The follower curve appears once this account has two daily snapshots — we take one a day, and this one is on its first.

Son gönderiler

Aynı büyüklükteki hesaplara karşı

Growth & engagement

Views per post

Engagement rate per post

What the audience does

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