Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش ✓
@citrinowicz · joined 27 Mar 2020
Middle East, National Security and intelligence expert خبير لشؤون الشرق الأوسط وإيران Senior Fellow @inss_hebrew Nonresident Fellow @AtlanticCouncil
85 745Followers
744Following
7 148Posts total
3.3MViews on collected posts
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@citrinowicz Iran DID NOT violate the JCPOA. You can actually read it. The US took the obligation to not impose sanctions and violated it. Iran then had the right to stop implementing the JCPOA provisions.
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@citrinowicz We (here in the USA) should hold Iran to the same nuclear rules as we do Israel. It's only fair.
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@citrinowicz Brilliant analysis as always. The irony is clear. Netanyahu, who prides himself on being his nation's best security bet, will go down in history as making Israel less safe, less secure.
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One point needs to be repeated, especially as the history of this war is being written: Israel was not on the verge of nuclear annihilation when the war began. Repeating that claim a thousand times will not make it factually true.
Iran posed a serious and growing nuclear threat.
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Netanyahu on Iran:
If we had not acted in time to attack Iran, we would not be meeting here today — because there might not have been a State of Israel. https://t.co/HgN3DwclLU
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0:38
@citrinowicz This is a terrorist insurgent movement operating outside the law, killing Yemenis and destroying their cities and villages.
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@citrinowicz It would seem that the “international coalition combining several instruments” you mention should also have a train and equip fund and some kind of way to work by, with and through local partner forces to achieve obtainable objectives. It’s a long, hard road.
There
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@citrinowicz The solution is honest diplomacy, something the West is incapable of doing.
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The idea that Saudi Arabia can simply bomb the Houthis into submission ignores one of the clearest lessons of the Yemen war: Riyadh already tried that. It didn’t work.
For years after the Houthis seized Sana’a, Saudi Arabia used overwhelming airpower against them. Virtually
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As the Houthis gain ground in Yemen and strike Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure, Riyadh must weigh its options.
"Airstrikes alone won't change much," MEI's @Ndawsari told @Bloomberg. "The US bombed the Houthis for months, and here we are." https://t.co/UKSyLVImR3
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@citrinowicz 2 US bases in UAE were struck overnight, along with Kuwait.
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@citrinowicz One part of your analysis is incorrect: the US HAS been targeting civilians in this conflict.
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@citrinowicz מי שעדיין חושב שמשהו יסתדר חי בסרט
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Exactly.
The Trump administration clearly does not want to get dragged into a prolonged tit-for-tat with Iran.
But after Iran’s latest response, and today’s attack in Kuwait, not responding carries a price of its own: it would further weaken U.S. deterrence, particularly in
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If today’s attacks on #Kuwait go unanswered militarily by the U.S., they could establish a dangerous new rule: #Iran sets the tempo, chooses the target and holds the initiative..
That would be very bad news for the Gulf states..
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Any strategy built on the assumption that economic pressure will force Iran to give up enrichment, or that economic pain alone will somehow produce regime change, is likely to fail.
We have seen this movie before. Economic pressure did not force Tehran to abandon its nuclear
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Yes. For Tehran, what Trump says matters a lot less than what he does.
Trump can declare the war over, but Iran will be watching what actually changes on the ground. If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the maritime blockade stays in place, and U.S. strikes on Iran continue,
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The events of the past several days sharpen the picture in the Strait of Hormuz, and expose a fundamental mismatch between the U.S. and Iranian approaches to the current confrontation.
1. Washington is trying to contain the conflict.
The administration clearly wants to avoid
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He can declare it whatever he wants, but if American warships are still blockading Iranian ports and escorting oil tankers through Hormuz then, um, it's not actually over
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BIG: Trump is privately considering declaring the Iran war over and, according to U.S. officials, favors the idea.
At the same time, he believes continued economic pressure will eventually force Iran to dismantle its nuclear program or cause the regime to collapse.
Source: WSJ
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BREAKING: Trump is now privately considering to formally declare the Iran war over, with Trump saying he strongly favors the idea, per WSJ.
Meanwhile, Iran launched a surprise attack on US assets in Kuwait tonight, with no US first strike. The US also has not responded to last
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@citrinowicz @HamidRezaAz Month old meme still applies. https://t.co/Vt3X93o9K1
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@citrinowicz "Trump is not offering Iran a credible diplomatic off-ramp" u r kidding?
Actually it is quite the oppsite, what trump insist now is quite simple, the free flow of SOH,, but IRGC refuse to give it to the world. It is Iran not offering Trump a credible diplomatic off
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@citrinowicz Correct: IRGC can and will always be able to disrupt traffic. But this works both ways: the US can stop Iranian oil exports. IRGC has (secretly) given up on nuke program. Its only leverage is Hormuz now.
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@citrinowicz This again sets up the wrong test: “Will economic pressure force Iran to capitulate?”
It doesn’t have to.
Pressure can succeed by degrading Iran’s military capacity, constraining its revenues, increasing the cost of disrupting Hormuz, and ultimately improving Washi
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The current status quo is inherently unstable. What happened last night will happen again, perhaps at different levels of intensity, but the underlying dynamics have not changed.
The problem is that the administration appears to be operating on assumptions that simply do not
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Trump signaling he's not interested in negotiations and that the status quo remains acceptable.
He also alludes (for the first time in a while) to the possibility of civil unrest in Iran. https://t.co/UpQyiGNC2l
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@citrinowicz @HamidRezaAz During the 40-day war, Iranian commanders said the Tehran had changed its military doctrine from defensive to offensive.
An Iranian army spokesperson pointed out three features of that shift: faster responses, a broader scale of retaliation, and the use
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@citrinowicz @BabakVahdad @HamidRezaAz Well, it is also the fact there is a hot-war situation
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There is one important point in this important analysis by @HamidRezaAz that deserves greater emphasis: the speed of the Iranian response. It is another indication of how much has changed inside Iran since the killing of Ali Khamenei.
Khamenei was no pacifist, But he was deeply
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Aynı büyüklükteki hesaplara karşı
Son 90 güne ait 32 gönderi, 10K–100K takipçi aralığıyla yan yana. geniş kitleye gösteriliyor, ama izleyenlerin azı tepki veriyor.
Medyan görüntülenme6 834bu hesap92410K–100K için medyan
Erişim, %7.97%bu hesap3.62%10K–100K için medyan
Etkileşim, %0.79%bu hesap1.52%10K–100K için medyan
| Ölçüt | Bu hesap | 10K–100K için medyan | Oran |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gönderi başına medyan görüntülenme | 6 834 | 924 | 7.40× |
| Erişim (görüntülenme ÷ takipçi) | 7.97% | 3.62% | 2.20× |
| Etkileşim oranı | 0.79% | 1.52% | 0.52× |
Bu aralıktaki diğer hesaplar → Başka bir hesapla karşılaştır → Bu kıyas değerleri nasıl kuruluyor →
Growth & engagement
How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.
Views per post
30.4K3 Sep
301
605
455
55.9K14 Sep
47.3K15 Sep
184
333
8416 Sep
393.7K17 Sep
121.4K
365
163
12518 Sep
Last 14 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.
Engagement rate per post
0.78%3 Sep
1.33%
0.99%
3.08%
0.08%14 Sep
0.72%15 Sep
1.63%
0.60%
2.38%16 Sep
0.06%17 Sep
0.64%
2.19%
5.52%
7.20%18 Sep
Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views. Median for 10K–100K accounts is 1.52%.
What the audience does
Likes74.8%15 087 in total
Reposts12.8%2 590 in total
Replies2.9%581 in total
Quotes1.5%293 in total
Bookmarks8.0%1 612 in total
Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.
The follower curve appears once this account has two daily snapshots — we take one a day, and this one is on its first.
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