Mohamed A. El-Erian ✓

It wouldn't surprise me if the output of the Federal Reserve’s five task forces, along with the broader reforms led by Kevin Warsh, becomes a global blueprint for central banking. Already, Chair Warsh’s pushback against what “forward guidance” has devolved into is already gaining 16K views · 71 likes · 6 reposts · 7 replies Open on X →

Flying under many radars for now, but probably not for long: The Japanese Yen has weakened back to 159 per U.S. dollar (CNBC chart), approaching the established FX intervention zone. This matters far beyond Japan for a key reason right now: Japanese foreign exchange intervention

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With yields edging higher again this morning, the entire US Treasury yield curve from 5- to 30-year maturities is now trading above 5%. (Image from the @FT below.) #economy #markets #bonds #yields https://t.co/fdixe1enAd

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This old photo, which just popped up on my phone, remains one of my absolute favorites: walking my young daughter to school -- something that, prior to a major career course correction in 2014, I simply didn't do enough. #daughter #fatherdaughterlove #fatherdaughter https://t.c

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This comes from The Economist's article on US-China relations, which it characterizes as having reached a '"strategic stalemate." #economy #markets #china https://t.co/qYUr33KJux

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Why the Treasury Yield Surge Shouldn't Be as Big a Surprise as it is: It is striking how many market participants have been surprised by the recent surge in US yields. The fundamental drivers have been evident for some time: Borrowing plans for major issuers, such as the https://

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This sharp rise in Treasury yields—including 11 basis points for the benchmark 10-year, as shown in the Bloomberg chart and table below—is being driven primarily by domestic indicators (data confirming accelerating US economic activity), and to a much lesser extent, external http

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From the @FT: "Surging government bond yields are a “major concern” to countries’ public finances given the mounting share of spending being consumed by debt interest, the OECD said on Wednesday." This warning comes as the OECD raises its inflation forecasts and warns about http

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The link to this morning's conversation on CNBC. Thank you, Carl, David, and Sara, for having me on the show. https://t.co/KRHboxHZqk #economy #markets @CNBC @carlquintanilla @davidfaber @SaraEisen @SquawkStreet 14.8K views · 24 likes · 1 reposts · 5 replies Open on X →

Further signs of UK fiscal pressure ahead of next month’s budget: Driven partly by higher debt servicing costs and inflation, UK public sector borrowing hit £18.3 billion in August. This came in above the £15.5 billion consensus forecast and widened the overshoot against the http

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Flying below the radar: The US 2s-30s yield curve is now trading just below 55 bps—halving in just a month or so. More to follow. #economy #markets #bonds #yields https://t.co/AY5dgXSHbr

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Look for four competing visions for the global order at UNGA this week: A modified, US-led model adapted for current geopolitical conditions; A Chinese-asserted alternative positioning Beijing as the primary guardian of multilateralism; A middle-power alternative driven by 18.8K views · 57 likes · 9 reposts · 7 replies Open on X →

Mohamed A. El-Erian ✓@elerianm21 Sep

Despite another day of lower international crude oil prices, refined product markets continue to move in the opposite direction. According to AAA data (below), diesel has pushed above $6.50 a gallon, while regular gas is near $4.50. Also and of note, refined products are https://

28.1K views · 249 likes · 65 reposts · 36 replies Open on X →

Mohamed A. El-Erian ✓@elerianm21 Sep

In this Financial Times column, the leaders of Brazil, Canada, the European Union, and Kenya propose forming the "'Partners for Multilateralism' ... to create a flexible, open framework for countries from different regions and political traditions that are willing to work across 51.7K views · 303 likes · 58 reposts · 43 replies Open on X →

Mohamed A. El-Erian ✓@elerianm20 Sep

Jets lose in OT.... We were all hoping for a new normal for our beloved Jets, including starting the season 2-0 for the first time since 2015. Instead, we’re right back to the old normal. This time around, we blew a 10 point lead in the fourth quarter ... and then lost the game h

38.1K views · 156 likes · 4 reposts · 38 replies Open on X →

Mohamed A. El-Erian ✓@elerianm20 Sep

Despite a calming Fed meeting last week, global markets enter the new week with a rebound in sovereign yields and rising energy pressures. We also have high-stakes diplomacy at the Trump-Xi summit on the sidelines of UNGA, alongside an extensive data calendar and the return of ht

38.3K views · 217 likes · 13 reposts · 23 replies Open on X →

Mohamed A. El-Erian ✓@elerianm19 Sep

This chart on Europe from the Financial Times is a general reminder that, in exhibiting impressive resilience to the energy shock, the global economy has run down its physical inventory. #economy #oil #energy #markets @ft https://t.co/7EYl1wSiwM

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Thank you to Richard Quest and Stuart Varney for having me on their shows today. #economy #markets https://t.co/dFBma7M6If

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From Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman's speech today, outlining "the initial findings of the independent review of the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB)." Many will view this as yet another addition to an already long list of institutional missteps by the Powell-led

35.1K views · 217 likes · 37 reposts · 21 replies Open on X →

While on yields, this chart from The Wall Street Journal on US mortgages. #economy #markets #yields #mortgages @WSJ https://t.co/3TB236Qx1W

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Remember Europe's old Core/Periphery framing, complete with the infamous "PIGS" moniker (Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain)? Well, look how the world has evolved -- not only as illustrated below, but also as Italian sovereign spreads have recently traded inside their French 52.1K views · 284 likes · 36 reposts · 23 replies Open on X →

Government bond yields are on the move again: The US 10-year Treasury is back at 5% and the 30-year is above 5.30% (Bloomberg table below.) #bonds #economy #markets #yields https://t.co/9PUG2oN9bo

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In the continuation of the masterclass in corporate succession: In a characteristically humble and well-written letter to Berkshire shareholders (below), Warren Buffett reflects on his tenure, passes the Chair role to Howard Buffett, and reaffirms his confidence in Greg Abel. htt

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A reminder to watch refined products alongside crude: While crude oil prices have fallen for a third consecutive day, refined products continue to climb, with US diesel hitting a fresh record high of $6.45 (AAA table). Meanwhile, media reports indicate that Aramco, the Saudi oil

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‘Greek finance minister encourages Germany to implement reforms’ https://t.co/maL6ixlpBh 283.2K views · 1.3K likes · 188 reposts · 32 replies Open on X →

The morning after the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates, markets raised expectations of further monetary tightening, pricing in three additional hikes by the end of June 2027 (Bloomberg chart below). #economy #markets #federalreserve https://t.co/EMYXh9IieZ

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The newly released jobless claims highlight the continued strength of the US labor market: Weekly initial claims came in at 196,000, better than the consensus forecast of 207,000. #economy #markets #jobs 22.7K views · 202 likes · 26 reposts · 23 replies Open on X →

Depending on where you look, the current U.S. economy can be characterized in one of three ways: 1. An economy in equilibrium, anchored by forces of mean reversion. 2. An increasingly unstable equilibrium, driven by diminishing financial and physical buffers. 3. An economy in 22K views · 132 likes · 21 reposts · 13 replies Open on X →