elioe ✓
@elioeFIN · Tampere, Finland · joined 18 Dec 2019
World's most accurate hurricane forecaster - and NHC knows it. See pinned thread for statistics, and GitHub repository for proof / evidence
36 318Followers
18 135Following
9 815Posts total
37.6KViews on collected posts
Son gönderiler
Yeni gönderiler aranıyor…
Performance of my advisories so far this year:
- I've beaten National Hurricane Center (NHC) by 21/28 indicators (divided by basin and lead time)
- all forecast points combined, I have beaten @NHC_Atlantic regarding both position and wind speed - by having lower average error h
187 views · 6 likes
· 2 reposts · 0 replies
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My latest on Tropical Storm #Lowell (#12E) https://t.co/EIDEmon3Rk
266 views · 2 likes
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Trolls occasionally claim that I'm plagiarizing/copying NHC forecast and presenting it as my own. This is easily disproven, since my GitHub repository contains codes, where all my forecasts are listed - and links given to my forecast as well as to the corresponding NHC forecast.
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(Thread 4/4)
There is a very low chance of tropical cyclone formation in South Pacific in 6-7 days. https://t.co/MbJ42adPHq
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(Thread 3/4)
In Arabian Sea, near Gujarat (India), there is a low chance of tropical cyclone development in 5-7 days. https://t.co/hHodQTlcZ0
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(Thread 2/4)
Tropical cyclone formation is possible:
- near Marshall Islands, Micronesia and Marianas in 3-7 days
- east of Luzon (Philippines) in 5-7 days
- in South China Sea in 2-7 days
- in Gulf of Thailand in 3-6 days https://t.co/fN8XqJAj4A
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(Thread 1/4)
In East Pacific, Invest #96E is likely to develop within five days. Another tropical cyclone could form in 4-7 days.
In Central Pacific, southeast of Hawaii, there is a slight chance of tropical cyclogenesis in 4-6 days. https://t.co/w8mrCqoeia
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The codes in my GitHub repository have now been updated to reflect the situation during the making of this thread
https://t.co/bkiNfVBj8J
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Notes on the economic importance of my achievements - and the impacts of NHC refusing to acknowledge me
(Not only the quoted tweet, there is a thread beginning with it)
https://t.co/n6RFDhToE7
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Notes on NHC relying on me
(Not only the quoted tweet, there is a thread beginning with it)
https://t.co/OktjLsr28N
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Notes on NHC data tampering
(Not only the quoted tweet, there is a thread beginning with it)
https://t.co/BcUFmBOrOE
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Notes on certification
(Not only the quoted tweet, there is a thread beginning with it)
https://t.co/ml4DvNP0cB
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Performance of my 16-day North Atlantic outlooks, relative to 1991-2020 climatology https://t.co/Ontnm1e1qy
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Performance of my tropical weather outlooks:
- in 7-day probabilities, I have definitely outperformed NHC
- in 2-day probabilities, I may have outperformed NHC, depending on which systems are counted https://t.co/t0k3LGCzHm
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Performance of weighted averages of my advisories and products from agencies, relative to those agencies, and its statistical significance https://t.co/1a5FJDDITY
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Performance of my advisories relative to agencies, and its statistical significance https://t.co/3UmdPnc952
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Performance of weighted averages of my and @FJMETservice advisories:
- by 10/10 indicators, I add signal to FMS products
- by 7/10 indicators, FMS doesn't add signal to my products https://t.co/HD4H3lJcfX
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Performance of weighted averages of my and @BOM_au advisories:
- by 20/20 indicators, I add signal to BoM products
- by 0/20 indicators, BoM doesn't add signal to my products https://t.co/Fn49WM5e8c
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Performance of weighted averages of my and @meteofrance advisories:
- by 19/20 indicators, I add signal to Météo-France products
- by 0/20 indicators, Météo-France doesn't add signal to my products https://t.co/Y53sFwOzHm
89 views · 1 likes
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Performance of weighted averages of my and @Indiametdept advisories:
- by 14/20 indicators, I add signal to IMD products
- by 3/20 indicators, IMD doesn't add signal to my products https://t.co/mYcuaNTDvU
70 views · 0 likes
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Performance of weighted averages of my and @JMA_kishou advisories:
- by 20/20 indicators, I add signal to JMA products
- by 1/20 indicators, JMA doesn't add signal to my products https://t.co/mr85UqGkqZ
98 views · 0 likes
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Performance of weighted averages of my and JTWC advisories:
- by 20/20 indicators, I add signal to JTWC products
- by 2/20 indicators, JTWC doesn't add signal to my products https://t.co/Bl4eyOtCax
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Performance of weighted averages of my and @NWSNHC advisories:
- by 40/50 indicators, I add signal to NHC products
- by 6/50 indicators, NHC doesn't add signal to my products https://t.co/HPwuj5EshE
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At time of issuance, my advisories were more accurate than latest product of:
- BoM by 9/20 indicators
- BMKG by 5/12 indicators
- FMS by 10/10 indicators
- MetService by 2/2 indicators
- Brazilian Navy by 0/2 indicators https://t.co/Q2BXsZ64zD
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At time of issuance, my advisories were more accurate than latest product of:
- IMD by 12/20 indicators
- JMA by 18/20 indicators
- Meteo-France by 14/20 indicators https://t.co/1sACzWnTGY
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At time of issuance, my advisories were more accurate than latest product of:
- NHC by 25/50 indicators
- JTWC by 14/20 indicators https://t.co/HBDXZVcdYY
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Performance of all advisories I've ever made - relative to various tropical cyclone forecasting agencies of the world https://t.co/OTKqnCaOPD
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After all the evidence I've gained about
- how hurricane forecast improvements cause economic benefits
- how high benefit-cost ratios NOAA operations typically have
- how much NHC employees get paid
- how much I could improve official forecasts
- how much NHC has already relied
7K views · 8 likes
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Aynı büyüklükteki hesaplara karşı
Son 90 güne ait 29 gönderi, 10K–100K takipçi aralığıyla yan yana. hem erişimde hem etkileşimde benzerlerinin altında.
Medyan görüntülenme105bu hesap94910K–100K için medyan
Erişim, %0.29%bu hesap3.49%10K–100K için medyan
Etkileşim, %0.98%bu hesap1.55%10K–100K için medyan
| Ölçüt | Bu hesap | 10K–100K için medyan | Oran |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gönderi başına medyan görüntülenme | 105 | 949 | 0.11× |
| Erişim (görüntülenme ÷ takipçi) | 0.29% | 3.49% | 0.08× |
| Etkileşim oranı | 0.98% | 1.55% | 0.63× |
Bu aralıktaki diğer hesaplar → Başka bir hesapla karşılaştır → Bu kıyas değerleri nasıl kuruluyor →
Growth & engagement
How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.
Views per post
12512 Aug
140
157
212
9713 Aug
1027 Aug
4948 Sep
105
97
689 Sep
401
266
5
187
Last 14 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.
Engagement rate per post
0.80%12 Aug
0.71%
0.64%
0.47%
0.00%13 Aug
0.00%27 Aug
0.61%8 Sep
1.90%
1.03%
1.47%9 Sep
1.00%
0.75%
0.00%
4.28%
Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views. Median for 10K–100K accounts is 1.55%.
What the audience does
Likes63.0%63 in total
Reposts8.0%8 in total
Replies27.0%27 in total
Bookmarks2.0%2 in total
Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.
The follower curve appears once this account has two daily snapshots — we take one a day, and this one is on its first.
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