Greg Ip ✓
@greg_ip · Washington, D.C. · joined 05 Jan 2011
Chief economics commentator for The Wall Street Journal. A fox, not a hedgehog. Read my articles here: https://t.co/EAV42eSvPW
83 714Followers
859Following
16 410Posts total
3.4MViews on collected posts
Son gönderiler
Yeni gönderiler aranıyor…
U.S. controls Venezuela's oil, its exports, its president. Not the 51st state, but not sovereign, either. Canada fears the same fate, which is why it broke off trade talks. “No Canadian leader wants to be the Delcy Rodríguez of the North,” says @cafreeland. Can they outlast the
3.8K views · 30 likes
· 7 reposts · 8 replies
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@MichaelKovrig "In the past, countries like Canada and many European states would have been more willing to stand up to bad behaviour by the Chinese Communist Party. Now everyone’s stepping back because ...Countries are afraid Trump will leave them exposed to the full brunt of
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· 2 reposts · 6 replies
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.@MichaelKovrig: “Canadians need to avoid getting locked into a false binary—either America is great and China is bad, or the reverse. Great powers operate differently from middle and small powers; they can abuse leverage and economic dependency.”
https://t.co/H1rxbSswiY
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· 5 reposts · 3 replies
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@greg_ip @JChengWSJ China is just going to tell you to go learn how to work hard and make things yourself again. 😂
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@greg_ip @JChengWSJ The problem with “Plaza Accord 2.0”, apart from bringing out the unnecessary constitutional suspicion from China that the US was trying to just contain China and hobble its economic future, is that you end up concentrating your “ask” on one thing when the prob
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@JChengWSJ My own view: nothing about solving China's imbalances, and certainly not a currency accord, is easy. Bessent is certainly right that industrial subsidies and weak domestic demand are part of the problem. The question is, how do you get China to address the problem? Bes
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@JChengWSJ 'Suggestions that a new "Plaza Accord" – the 1985 agreement to strengthen currencies against the dollar – was the answer to reducing imbalances are misguided, (Bessent) said, calling this "an easy way to get around dealing with the real trade problem," which he said wa
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Scott Bessent to Reuters: “The world cannot have a China with a $1.2 trillion trade surplus…They need to rebalance their economy…The rest of the world is going to have to examine their terms of trade with China.”
https://t.co/lP4s7c0EAF
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· 40 reposts · 16 replies
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@greg_ip Japan’s lost decades to repeat on China? No way. Japanese must have regretted bigly when they kowtowed to Washington in the 1980s
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@Brad_Setser @michaelxpettis 7/ But there is precedent. Schumer and Graham began agitating for China tariffs in 2005. Treasury used that as a stick to get China to finally allow significant real appreciation in the yuan.
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@Brad_Setser @michaelxpettis 6/ Others can't force yuan higher through intervention b/c of China's currency controls. So second best would be uniform tariff on China calibrated to the undervaluation, w/promise to dial it back as currency revalues. Will it work? Who knows.
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@Brad_Setser @michaelxpettis 5/ Xi Jinping likes China's economic model. He despises "welfarism" and a high-export, low-import model meets his "dual circulation" criteria. He is thus unlikely to do more than the absolute minimum. So how to force revaluation?
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@Brad_Setser @michaelxpettis 4/ This table by Goldman Sachs is eye opening: the price discount in China vs rest of world saturates all products, violating the law of one price. https://t.co/6qpnKzAOGI
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@Brad_Setser 3/ The orthodox (IMF) view is low yuan does not cause China's surplus, it's symptom of structurally weak consumption and property bust, which cause the surplus. By contrast, @michaelxpettis & others argue low yuan drives surplus via relative prices and by transferrin
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2/ The scale of China's external imbalance is immense. @Brad_Setser has done yeoman's work measuring China's true current account surplus. When he plugs that into the IMF model, he concludes the yuan is 35% undervalued. https://t.co/UZJHOCegoO
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Warsh's speech IMO clears up a lot of confusion from July FOMC w/substantive review of economy, inflation incl. granular look inside PCE w/o crossing into forward guidance; one can infer a hawkish bias. Market reaction is opposite of July FOMC: 30y down, 2y up. Mkts see tighter
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Parenthetically, note the U.S. truly began to pull away from its peers after the pandemic, while propelled by what everyone now agrees was too much monetary and fiscal stimulus. We got more inflation, but if we also got better growth, was the tradeoff unambiguously bad?
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@greg_ip @Noahpinion This is why: "The United States is much more powerful than past lead states. With 5 percent of the world’s population, the United States accounts for 25 percent of global wealth, 35 percent of world innovation, and 40 percent of global military spending. It i
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@greg_ip @Noahpinion 'Cause the US government can print more money than anyone else? Pretty sure government spending is captured by GDP still... :)
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@greg_ip @Noahpinion Especially since 2019, US is dominating
Chart from @JosephPolitano https://t.co/PKgRmVZIW0
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I often see variations of this chart by @Noahpinion showing how much Canada has lagged the U.S., but isn't my chart here the relevant one - EVERYONE has lagged the U.S.? Instead of asking why Canada lagged, we should ask why does the U.S. lead. https://t.co/PNvvrLtIJu
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Until 2015, Canada and the U.S. were on the same growth track. Then Canada suddenly fell behind.
What the fuck happened to Canada in 2015??? https://t.co/Cm3ICnmjCV
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Aynı büyüklükteki hesaplara karşı
Son 90 güne ait 22 gönderi, 10K–100K takipçi aralığıyla yan yana. geniş kitleye gösteriliyor, ama izleyenlerin azı tepki veriyor.
Medyan görüntülenme23 780bu hesap92410K–100K için medyan
Erişim, %28.41%bu hesap3.62%10K–100K için medyan
Etkileşim, %0.46%bu hesap1.52%10K–100K için medyan
| Ölçüt | Bu hesap | 10K–100K için medyan | Oran |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gönderi başına medyan görüntülenme | 23 780 | 924 | 25.7× |
| Erişim (görüntülenme ÷ takipçi) | 28.41% | 3.62% | 7.85× |
| Etkileşim oranı | 0.46% | 1.52% | 0.30× |
Bu aralıktaki diğer hesaplar → Başka bir hesapla karşılaştır → Bu kıyas değerleri nasıl kuruluyor →
Growth & engagement
How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.
Views per post
14.8K28 Aug
24.1K
23.5K
25.3K
35.4K
65.9K29 Aug
33.7K31 Aug
72.9K
11.4K
2.7K
1.7K
8.1K2 Sep
6.1K
3.8K3 Sep
Last 14 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.
Engagement rate per post
0.57%28 Aug
0.45%
0.30%
0.30%
0.29%
0.75%29 Aug
0.64%31 Aug
0.08%
0.36%
0.40%
0.47%
0.24%2 Sep
0.33%
1.21%3 Sep
Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views. Median for 10K–100K accounts is 1.52%.
What the audience does
Likes71.1%7 526 in total
Reposts8.1%862 in total
Replies14.2%1 505 in total
Quotes4.3%451 in total
Bookmarks2.3%243 in total
Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.
The follower curve appears once this account has two daily snapshots — we take one a day, and this one is on its first.
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