Lakshya Jain ✓

@lxeagle17 · SF Bay Area · joined 20 Jul 2017

a machine learning/software engineer. also political data @TheArgumentMag, co-founder @SplitTicket_, and @cal alum. ✉️ lakshya@theargumentmag.com. i hate sports

93 392Followers

2 674Following

79 149Posts total

937.6KViews on collected posts

Son gönderiler

Lakshya Jain ✓@lxeagle172 Sep

We're live with Rep. Sarah McBride, talking about everything in elections and what voters care about for @TheArgumentMag! Come and join me and @ZacharyDonnini and ask your questions. (Subscribers will get the email recording.) https://t.co/YcHK7ZazqD 18K views · 53 likes · 8 reposts · 3 replies Open on X →

Lakshya Jain ✓@lxeagle1731 Aug

We are live with @BobbyPulido425 speaking about what a Democrat needs to do to win a Trump +18 seat in the Rio Grande Valley. Come ask your questions to me, @ZacharyDonnini and @Thorongil16! We'll send out a recording to subscribers after it ends. https://t.co/rImOgrg7BI 21.1K views · 123 likes · 15 reposts · 5 replies Open on X →

Lakshya Jain ✓@lxeagle1730 Aug

For what it's worth, our surveys at @TheArgumentMag are seeing likely voters as ~2.7 points more Democratic than registered voters are (on margin). In other words: among all RVs, we estimate Democrats lead by 5.2. Among all likely voters, it's D+7.9, which is bigger than 2018. 65.2K views · 733 likes · 71 reposts · 11 replies Open on X →

Lakshya Jain ✓@lxeagle1729 Aug

@lxeagle17 I mean it has to be Moore 5.4K views · 48 likes · 0 reposts · 5 replies Open on X →

Lakshya Jain ✓@lxeagle1729 Aug

Good question here re: Kari Lake. I'd put her at #8 with Masters and Walker. You can swap them in any order and I would not argue at all. I just ran out of characters and made a judgement call on three candidates whose WAR is all clustered around -6 or -7 https://t.co/CQqxcTYdru 13.6K views · 115 likes · 4 reposts · 5 replies Open on X →

Lakshya Jain ✓@lxeagle1729 Aug

@lxeagle17 Kari Lake? 15.1K views · 1 likes · 0 reposts · 0 replies Open on X →

Lakshya Jain ✓@lxeagle1729 Aug

O'Donnell gets a lot of hate, and she wasn't a good candidate, but that underperformance also happened in a state that Barack Obama and John Kerry both comfortably won. She looks worse in comparison to an electoral superstar in Mike Castle. Paxton might lose a Trump +13 state. 10.4K views · 138 likes · 6 reposts · 3 replies Open on X →

Lakshya Jain ✓@lxeagle1729 Aug

If I had to come up with a Worst Senate GOP Candidates list: 1) Roy Moore 2) Christine O'Donnell 3) Todd Akin 4) Richard Mourdock 5) Ken Paxton 6) Blake Masters 7) Herschel Walker Moore was clearly the worst. I think you can argue that Paxton would compete with the others at #2 37.5K views · 378 likes · 19 reposts · 32 replies Open on X →

Lakshya Jain ✓@lxeagle1729 Aug

Third iteration of this post and hopefully this one works, because if I get another "something went wrong but don’t fret — let’s give it another shot", I'm just going to give up on posting this model here. 10.9K views · 137 likes · 5 reposts · 2 replies Open on X →

Lakshya Jain ✓@lxeagle1729 Aug

Basically everything points to a slim Democratic victory right now. Our fundamentals — scandal included — point to Talarico +1. The polls point to Talarico +2. Every other nonpartisan model finds something similar. At some point, if it looks like a duck...https://t.co/w6EmyZoWmu 14.4K views · 214 likes · 19 reposts · 4 replies Open on X →

Lakshya Jain ✓@lxeagle1729 Aug

If this holds — and again, Talarico has led 9 of the last 10 surveys in this state, over the last two months — it would be the end result of nominating maybe the worst Senate candidate in modern history. https://t.co/j9HW8tQctm https://t.co/si3pD9wFqE 123.2K views · 1.5K likes · 96 reposts · 54 replies Open on X →

Lakshya Jain ✓@lxeagle1717 Jun

@TheArgumentMag @ECaliberSeven @ZacharyDonnini @VoteHub By popular request, the @SplitTicket_ model is now searchable by name or district. For instance, you can't find where Tom Kean Jr. is IRL, but you can probably find him in our model pretty easily now. https://t.co/w6EmyZoWmu 12.4K views · 109 likes · 6 reposts · 5 replies Open on X →

Lakshya Jain ✓@lxeagle1717 Jun

@lxeagle17 The closing gap on the generic ballot giving you any pause? 4.3K views · 29 likes · 0 reposts · 4 replies Open on X →

Lakshya Jain ✓@lxeagle1717 Jun

@TheArgumentMag Lastly — a big, big thanks to @ECaliberSeven and @ZacharyDonnini for putting up with my insane volume of texts in stress-testing the model. It's so great when smart people work with you. And a huge thanks to @VoteHub for supplying the external collection of poll 15K views · 99 likes · 5 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →

Lakshya Jain ✓@lxeagle1717 Jun

@TheArgumentMag This is not to say their decision is to be dismissed; Cook and Sabato both have a long, long track record of being right. But at this point in time, their ratings reflect a neutral or slightly GOP-friendly year. Our model thinks that every ounce of evidence sugge 11.1K views · 105 likes · 6 reposts · 4 replies Open on X →

Lakshya Jain ✓@lxeagle1717 Jun

@TheArgumentMag We had a lot of interesting findings come out of the model being made. To begin with, this is probably the first cycle where I really disagree with a lot of the expert forecasts. There are over a dozen House races where we are two ratings to the left of either Sab 18.9K views · 145 likes · 22 reposts · 3 replies Open on X →

Lakshya Jain ✓@lxeagle1717 Jun

This model will update daily and will be hosted @TheArgumentMag. The model itself is free to view and download the outputs of. A lot of the analysis articles, though, will be reserved for paying subscribers. Here's our first piece breaking down the model! https://t.co/5X9TPzR6Eg 25.4K views · 92 likes · 8 reposts · 3 replies Open on X →

Lakshya Jain ✓@lxeagle1717 Jun

Our midterms model is out! House: 🔵 86% (229 D-206 R) Senate: 🔴 56% (50D-50R) https://t.co/w6EmyZoWmu 515.7K views · 1.2K likes · 195 reposts · 73 replies Open on X →

Aynı büyüklükteki hesaplara karşı

Son 90 güne ait 11 gönderi, 10K–100K takipçi aralığıyla yan yana. aynı büyüklükteki hesaplardan daha çok kişiye gösteriliyor.

Medyan görüntülenme15 059bu hesap92410K–100K için medyan

Erişim, %16.12%bu hesap3.62%10K–100K için medyan

Etkileşim, %1.16%bu hesap1.52%10K–100K için medyan

Ölçüt	Bu hesap	10K–100K için medyan	Oran
Gönderi başına medyan görüntülenme	15 059	924	16.3×
Erişim (görüntülenme ÷ takipçi)	16.12%	3.62%	4.45×
Etkileşim oranı	1.16%	1.52%	0.76×

Bu aralıktaki diğer hesaplar → Başka bir hesapla karşılaştır → Bu kıyas değerleri nasıl kuruluyor →

Growth & engagement

How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.

Views per post

15K17 Jun

4.3K

12.4K

123.2K29 Aug

14.4K

10.9K

37.5K

10.4K

15.1K

13.6K

5.4K

65.2K30 Aug

21.1K31 Aug

18K2 Sep

Last 14 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.

Engagement rate per post

0.70%17 Jun

0.77%

0.96%

1.31%29 Aug

1.65%

1.32%

1.16%

1.41%

0.01%

0.91%

1.00%

1.26%30 Aug

0.68%31 Aug

0.36%2 Sep

Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views. Median for 10K–100K accounts is 1.52%.

What the audience does

Likes79.6%5 159 in total

Reposts7.5%485 in total

Replies3.3%217 in total

Quotes1.0%63 in total

Bookmarks8.6%558 in total

Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.

The follower curve appears once this account has two daily snapshots — we take one a day, and this one is on its first.

Son gönderiler

Aynı büyüklükteki hesaplara karşı

Growth & engagement

Views per post

Engagement rate per post

What the audience does

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