Hanno Lustig ✓

@HannoLustig · joined 04 Jun 2020

Economist at Stanford. Fascinated by exchange rates. Really wanted to be a pilot. Check out my substack with Romain Wacziarg https://t.co/UYmP4HjRs8.

51 489Followers

1 196Following

9 309Posts total

541.4KViews on collected posts

Against accounts of the same size

4 posts from the last 90 days, next to the 10K–100K follower range. shown widely, but few of those viewers react.

Median views17 946this account2 747median for 10K–100K

Reach, %34.86%this account8.35%median for 10K–100K

Engagement, %0.91%this account1.45%median for 10K–100K

Metric	This account	Median for 10K–100K	Ratio
Median views per post	17 946	2 747	6.53×
Reach (views ÷ followers)	34.86%	8.35%	4.17×
Engagement rate	0.91%	1.45%	0.63×

Others in this range → Compare with another account → How these benchmarks are built →

Growth & engagement

How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.

Views per post

6.9K4 Jan

7.5K

6.2K

6K

6.3K

5.5K

4.6K

5.9K

7.1K

592

15.8K24 Aug

39.4K26 Aug

8.4K

20.1K27 Aug

Last 14 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.

Engagement rate per post

0.58%4 Jan

0.56%

0.62%

0.63%

0.53%

0.47%

0.72%

0.73%

1.07%

0.34%

1.38%24 Aug

0.24%26 Aug

0.74%

1.07%27 Aug

Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views. Median for 10K–100K accounts is 1.45%.

What the audience does

Likes60.4%1 859 in total

Reposts10.4%319 in total

Replies3.1%95 in total

Quotes2.6%80 in total

Bookmarks23.6%727 in total

Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.

The follower curve appears once this account has two daily snapshots — we take one a day, and this one is on its first.

Latest posts

Destroying option value for future generations. Not very Dutch at all. I still associate the Dutch with pragmatic, reasonable, non-ideological policy making. 20.1K views · 173 likes · 24 reposts · 13 replies 27 Aug 2026 US Treasury bonds are becoming less special, but policy makers are lagging markets. That sets the stage for potential policy errors by policy makers who spot market dislocations and plumbing problems in bond markets when yields respond to macro fundamentals. Thanks @Neil_Irwin 8.4K views · 46 likes · 14 reposts · 1 replies 26 Aug 2026 Primer on income pooling among national central banks inside the Eurozone (which is a bit Byzantine). We figured it out so you don't have to. This will help you understand the implications of (just an example) your favorite debt cancellation proposal. based on work with Matteo 39.4K views · 76 likes · 12 reposts · 4 replies 26 Aug 2026 Lots of dangerously appealing proposals for government debt cancellation in advanced economies floating around on both sides of the Atlantic. Populist politicians are taking notes. Central banks should become better at articulating trade-offs when they use their balance sheet to 15.8K views · 168 likes · 32 reposts · 14 replies 24 Aug 2026 @HannoLustig Thank you for a great analysis of one of the greatest challenges any incoming administration faces in the US. And most seem to fail that challenge! 592 views · 2 likes · 0 reposts · 0 replies 04 Jan 2025 20/ Link to our paper: 'Can Treasury Markets Add and Subtract?' https://t.co/VrztpEhd2K https://t.co/RQa7ve39zc 7.1K views · 66 likes · 8 reposts · 1 replies 04 Jan 2025 19/ I am presenting 'Can Treasury Markets Add and Subtract?' with Howard and Roberto on Sunday in a session on New Evidence on Inflation Dynamics, organized by J. Hazell. https://t.co/A01EjX5TEy 5.9K views · 38 likes · 3 reposts · 2 replies 04 Jan 2025 18/This may explain why the US Treasury switched to issuing mostly T-bills last year. At longer tenors, Treasurys are no longer expensive compared to similar bonds. 4.6K views · 31 likes · 1 reposts · 1 replies 04 Jan 2025 17/ Figure of convenience yields. This figure shows two different measures of convenience yields on Treasurys. The blue line uses as a proxy for convenience yields the spread between 10-year AAA corporate and Treasurys. The red line is the CDS-adjusted version of the https://t.co 5.5K views · 23 likes · 1 reposts · 2 replies 04 Jan 2025 16/Low-rate policies are not new, but they’re are not a free lunch, and their full impact is not well understood. They distort the signals the bond markets send to economists and to fiscal policymakers. They re-engineer the financial system in ways that we don’t understand. They 6.3K views · 27 likes · 3 reposts · 2 replies 04 Jan 2025 15/This is not new. Governments have always found ways to borrow at below-market rates, especially when faced with fiscal challenges. Economists used to call this financial repression. I prefer the term low-rate policies. Low-rate policies come in many different shapes and sizes. 6K views · 33 likes · 4 reposts · 1 replies 04 Jan 2025 13/This 'leaning against the wind' may help to explain why we did not find evidence at lower (quarterly) frequencies that Treasury yields and returns decline in response to adverse fiscal news (see 'What Drives Variation in the U.S. Debt-to-Output Ratio? The Dogs that Did not 6.2K views · 34 likes · 1 reposts · 2 replies 04 Jan 2025 12/ It's not the case that yields were not responding to fiscal news over this period. In my work with Roberto Gomez-Cram and Howard Kung `Can U.S. Treasury Markets Add and Subtract?', we find high-frequency evidence in daily data that Treasury yields do respond to fiscal news ht 7.5K views · 37 likes · 2 reposts · 2 replies 04 Jan 2025 11/The Fed ended the pandemic with combined Treasury and Agency bond holdings of 32% of GDP, an all-time high. Instead of issuing bonds to finance its deficits, the consolidated government, consolidating the Fed and the Treasury, effectively resorted to issuing bank reserves, 6.9K views · 38 likes · 1 reposts · 1 replies 04 Jan 2025 10/If spending is unfunded, then the debt will be marked down in response to the spending shock, because the PDV of surpluses decreased, just like we’d mark down MBS when there is adverse news about future mortgage payments. Adventurous fiscal policy makes for risky debt. And htt 7.7K views · 33 likes · 1 reposts · 2 replies 04 Jan 2025 9/Covid is a great example. When COVID-19 finally arrived in the U.S., volatility in the Treasury markets spiked. At the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, there was no flight to the safety of Treasurys. The 10-year Treasury yield increased by 70 bps between March 9 and 18 of 2020, 15.7K views · 31 likes · 1 reposts · 2 replies 04 Jan 2025 8/Take the Fed. Between 1951 and 2008, the Fed balance sheet as a fraction of GDP was stable. Over this period of more than 50 years, the Fed’s cumulative Treasury purchases are worth only 12% of 2008 GDP. Between 2008 and 2021 , a period of only 13 years, the Fed absorbed 35% h 9.1K views · 41 likes · 5 reposts · 2 replies 04 Jan 2025 7/Why was this the case? Central bankers and financial regulators may have contributed to the fiscal exuberance. Since the GFC, central bankers and financial regulators in advanced economies have adopted various low-interest-rate policies. In the wake of the GFC, central banks 8.9K views · 46 likes · 1 reposts · 2 replies 04 Jan 2025 6/In the decade and a half following the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, the federal government ran persistent large primary deficits and the debt/GDP ratio rose from 63% in 2007 to 120 % in 2022. In spite of all this, yields continued their downwards trend after the GFC. The ht 10.3K views · 58 likes · 4 reposts · 1 replies 04 Jan 2025 5/The US federal government is now –in 2024– projected by the CBO to run primary deficits (that is the deficit excluding interest payment) until 2053. The CBO projects a debt/GDP ratio of 166% in 2053. And that’s just the US federal government. This raises 2 questions. i) Where 10.6K views · 46 likes · 2 reposts · 1 replies 04 Jan 2025 4/The Congressional Budget Office Is a non-partisan agency that is tasked by Congress to make budget projections based on current legislation. Basically, the CBO rolls the current legislation forward and computes the total ticket price for taxpayers. Back in 2000, the CBO https:/ 13.4K views · 46 likes · 2 reposts · 2 replies 04 Jan 2025 2/But until last year, there was broad-based fiscal exuberance in the US. Not just the “Learn to love trillion dollar deficits” variety of the Modern Monetary Theory fringes. Even among mainstream economists there was widespread fiscal optimism. “Put bluntly, public debt may 15.6K views · 85 likes · 9 reposts · 2 replies 04 Jan 2025 3/It wasn’t always like that. In the early 90s, US Treasury yields started to surge as markets grew concerned about the size of deficits. The benchmark 10-year yield increased from 5.2% in late 1993 to more than 8% 12 months later. Partly in response to what came to be known as 14K views · 74 likes · 7 reposts · 1 replies 04 Jan 2025 2024 may also be remembered as the year U.S. fiscal exuberance died. post-mortem 🧵 on how we got here. Right now, with the 10 year US Treasury yield trading well above 4.5% and the federal government spending roughly the equivalent of the defense budget just on interest https: 295.8K views · 607 likes · 181 reposts · 34 replies 04 Jan 2025

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