Vincent Ledvina ✓

@Vincent_Ledvina · Fairbanks, Alaska · joined 29 Aug 2014

“The Aurora Guy” 📸 🔭Space Physics PhD student☀️💨 Northern lights photographer living in Alaska! Tweets/views own!

48 919Followers

803Following

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Vincent Ledvina ✓@Vincent_Ledvina5 Std.

The June vote for my 2027 Awesome Auroras calendar closes tomorrow, Sunday, September 13 at 11:59 PM Alaska time. Here is the top five as of this morning, after over 3,700 rounds. If your favorite photo is not here, it needs your vote. 1/5 https://t.co/NiPamh8O6s

1.4K views · 10 likes · 1 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →

Vincent Ledvina ✓@Vincent_Ledvina7 Std.

@Vincent_Ledvina 🥱🥱🥱 33 views · 1 likes · 0 reposts · 0 replies Open on X →

Vincent Ledvina ✓@Vincent_Ledvina11 Std.

A couple large coronal holes are facing Earth today. Fast solar wind may brush past our planet and elevate geomagnetic conditions starting around Sep 13. Effects may last a couple days and result in vivid auroral displays at high-latitudes and some chances for mid-latitude https

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2.9K views · 100 likes · 16 reposts · 3 replies Open on X →

Vincent Ledvina ✓@Vincent_Ledvina16 Std.

The HUXt model corroborates the Earth-directed CME seen in NOAA SWPC's ENLIL model, and I should mention it is reported by NASA M2M as well. The % chance of hit is maxed out--100%, but look at the speed (V). < 400 km/s is slow. Background solar wind speeds are typically 350-400 h

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Vincent Ledvina ✓@Vincent_Ledvina16 Std.

Should you expect anything from this? Not really, but we could get a minor enhancement in the solar wind sometime on Sep 14 which could pop us (at most IMO) into minor storm territory. High-latitude chasers may see some benefit from this enhancement, but mid-latitude chasers 757 views · 4 likes · 0 reposts · 0 replies Open on X →

Vincent Ledvina ✓@Vincent_Ledvina16 Std.

A small CME could impact Earth around Sep 14 at 16 UT. This is a weak eruption barely moving faster than the background solar wind, but it does get mention in some agency forecast discussions, and I figured I would mention it with a dedicated post. The source of the CME is https:

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3.1K views · 79 likes · 11 reposts · 2 replies Open on X →

Vincent Ledvina ✓@Vincent_Ledvina26 Aug

@Vincent_Ledvina no chances seeing something in europe? 97 views · 0 likes · 0 reposts · 0 replies Open on X →

Vincent Ledvina ✓@Vincent_Ledvina26 Aug

Finally, the full breakdown went to my email list for free: https://t.co/lnjaM5IlRJ and I'll be turning it into a blog post today to live forever on my website so if you missed it you can still look at all the info! Hopes up, expectations realistic. Clear skies! 🤞 16/16 856 views · 7 likes · 0 reposts · 0 replies Open on X →

Vincent Ledvina ✓@Vincent_Ledvina26 Aug

The Sun might not be done either. AR 4513 is rotating through the strike zone right now with a complex magnetic setup, and NOAA gives it a 50% shot at another M flare and 15% at an X (as of Aug 25). Additional eruptions would be much better aimed than this one. 15/16 https://t.co

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Vincent Ledvina ✓@Vincent_Ledvina26 Aug

Watch the solar wind, the webcams, and the GOES magnetometers instead. They tell you when the CME actually arrived and when a substorm is starting, which is what gets you outside: https://t.co/MkdRG0nou1 14/16 180 views · 4 likes · 0 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →

Vincent Ledvina ✓@Vincent_Ledvina26 Aug

Who will see the aurora? Nobody can name cities. During storms the oval pushes south, and during substorms the lights go tall and bright and reach much farther, often as red glow low on the horizon. Substorms are the whole game at mid-latitudes: https://t.co/gBUctDr8cr 12/16 294 views · 4 likes · 0 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →

Vincent Ledvina ✓@Vincent_Ledvina26 Aug

Don't lean on Kp or aurora apps here. That "% chance at your location" is the OVATION model, not a picture of what the aurora is actually doing, and neither it nor Kp can see a substorm coming: https://t.co/FWx1FFPoyf 13/16 193 views · 2 likes · 0 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →

Vincent Ledvina ✓@Vincent_Ledvina26 Aug

Now the part I'm pretty excited about. Thursday night into Friday there's a partial lunar eclipse that comes within a hair of total, about 96% of the Moon in Earth's shadow. Greatest eclipse is 04:13 UT: 12:13 AM Eastern, 11:13 PM Central, 9:13 PM Pacific. 10/16 https://t.co/yzRT

267 views · 7 likes · 0 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →

Vincent Ledvina ✓@Vincent_Ledvina26 Aug

If the CME runs early it arrives during that same night, and there'd be a chance to shoot a red Moon and aurora in one frame. A full Moon normally washes out faint displays, but for about an hour around greatest eclipse it dims and those faint auroras get vivid. 11/16 307 views · 6 likes · 1 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →

Vincent Ledvina ✓@Vincent_Ledvina26 Aug

L1 is where our upstream monitors sit, about a million miles sunward of Earth. They're the first thing to actually measure the CME: how fast, how dense, and which way its magnetic field (Bz) points. That's about an hour of warning, and it's the only "true" forecast we get. 9/16 267 views · 4 likes · 0 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →

Vincent Ledvina ✓@Vincent_Ledvina26 Aug

Three windows to keep track of: Early puts Thursday night in play for North America. On time favors the southern hemisphere, where 11 UT is Friday evening. Late brings Friday night back. And a strong impact could create lasting effects, so Friday night stays in play still. 7/16 282 views · 4 likes · 0 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →

Vincent Ledvina ✓@Vincent_Ledvina26 Aug

NOAA's watch: G1 minor Thursday from the coronal hole, G2 moderate Friday from the CMEs. Their bulletin puts the reach from New York to Idaho, but auroral visibility can't really be predicted this far out. It's "L1 or Bust," as my friend Tanya Melnik puts it. 8/16 https://t.co/42

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Vincent Ledvina ✓@Vincent_Ledvina26 Aug

When would it arrive? NOAA SWPC's ENLIL run says 11 UT Friday: 7 AM Eastern, 6 AM Central, 5 AM Mountain, 4 AM Pacific, 3 AM Alaska. NASA agrees. The uncertainty is about ±10 hours--pretty high due to the glancing blow nature of the impact. 5/16 https://t.co/EPu98xhIFZ

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Vincent Ledvina ✓@Vincent_Ledvina26 Aug

HUXt disagrees. It runs a bunch slightly different versions of the same forecast (an ensemble) to show you the spread, and it lands the median arrival 14 hours later, at 01:31 UT Aug 29, about 9:30 PM Eastern Friday night. It gives the CME a 79% chance of arriving at all. 6/16 ht

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Vincent Ledvina ✓@Vincent_Ledvina26 Aug

The coronal hole matters for two reasons. Its eastern edge sits right next to AR 4513 and acted like a wall, keeping the eruption from spreading toward us. It's also sending 500-600 km/s wind from late Thursday, and the two could tag-team to produce some messy solar wind. 4/16 ht

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Vincent Ledvina ✓@Vincent_Ledvina26 Aug

What happened: Tuesday morning, sunspot region AR 4513 fired off an M6.98 flare (call it an M7) and launched a CME, a giant cloud of solar plasma with a magnetic field tangled up inside. Actually two were launched, a smaller filament eruption alongside the main one. 2/16 https://

826 views · 12 likes · 2 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →

Vincent Ledvina ✓@Vincent_Ledvina26 Aug

My read on the coronagraphs: two pieces. The bulk of the cloud is heading east, away from us. A fainter, faster shock went west, and that's the piece that could clip Earth. It's hard to even see. A glancing blow off a relatively unimpressive eruption. 3/16 https://t.co/lgZgvwfa2G

635 views · 5 likes · 0 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →

Vincent Ledvina ✓@Vincent_Ledvina26 Aug

AURORA ALERT 🚨 NOAA has a G2 (moderate) geomagnetic storm watch up for Friday Aug 28, with G1 conditions Thursday. CMEs from Tuesday may clip Earth. Northern U.S. and Canada in play, plus a nearly total lunar eclipse Thursday night. Here's the rundown 👇 https://t.co/PM7cvHXZDE

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23 Beiträge aus den letzten 90 Tagen, verglichen mit der Größenklasse 10K–100K Follower. erreicht weniger Menschen als Konten gleicher Größe.

Medianaufrufe393dieses Konto1 010Median für 10K–100K

Reichweite, %0.80%dieses Konto3.46%Median für 10K–100K

Interaktion, %1.78%dieses Konto1.79%Median für 10K–100K

Kennzahl	Dieses Konto	Median für 10K–100K	Verhältnis
Medianaufrufe pro Beitrag	393	1 010	0.39×
Reichweite (Aufrufe ÷ Follower)	0.80%	3.46%	0.23×
Interaktionsrate	1.78%	1.79%	1.00×

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Growth & engagement

How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.

Views per post

30726 Aug

267

193

294

180

928

856

3.1K12 Sep

757

2.4K

2.9K

1.4K

Last 14 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.

Engagement rate per post

2.61%26 Aug

3.00%

1.55%

1.70%

2.78%

0.86%

0.82%

0.00%

2.97%12 Sep

0.53%

1.85%

4.10%

3.03%

0.83%

Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views. Median for 10K–100K accounts is 1.79%.

What the audience does

Likes74.8%961 in total

Reposts15.6%200 in total

Replies2.2%28 in total

Bookmarks7.5%96 in total

Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.

Followers by day

12 Sep

Daily snapshots since 12 Sep 2026; the dashed line is the starting count.

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