Vincent Ledvina ✓
@Vincent_Ledvina · Fairbanks, Alaska · joined 29 Aug 2014
“The Aurora Guy” 📸 🔭Space Physics PhD student☀️💨 Northern lights photographer living in Alaska! Tweets/views own!
48 919Followers
803Following
28 196Posts total
42.6KViews on collected posts
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The June vote for my 2027 Awesome Auroras calendar closes tomorrow, Sunday, September 13 at 11:59 PM Alaska time. Here is the top five as of this morning, after over 3,700 rounds. If your favorite photo is not here, it needs your vote. 1/5 https://t.co/NiPamh8O6s
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A couple large coronal holes are facing Earth today. Fast solar wind may brush past our planet and elevate geomagnetic conditions starting around Sep 13. Effects may last a couple days and result in vivid auroral displays at high-latitudes and some chances for mid-latitude https
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0:12
The HUXt model corroborates the Earth-directed CME seen in NOAA SWPC's ENLIL model, and I should mention it is reported by NASA M2M as well. The % chance of hit is maxed out--100%, but look at the speed (V). < 400 km/s is slow. Background solar wind speeds are typically 350-400 h
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Should you expect anything from this? Not really, but we could get a minor enhancement in the solar wind sometime on Sep 14 which could pop us (at most IMO) into minor storm territory. High-latitude chasers may see some benefit from this enhancement, but mid-latitude chasers
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A small CME could impact Earth around Sep 14 at 16 UT. This is a weak eruption barely moving faster than the background solar wind, but it does get mention in some agency forecast discussions, and I figured I would mention it with a dedicated post. The source of the CME is https:
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0:19
@Vincent_Ledvina no chances seeing something in europe?
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Finally, the full breakdown went to my email list for free: https://t.co/lnjaM5IlRJ and I'll be turning it into a blog post today to live forever on my website so if you missed it you can still look at all the info!
Hopes up, expectations realistic. Clear skies! 🤞 16/16
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The Sun might not be done either. AR 4513 is rotating through the strike zone right now with a complex magnetic setup, and NOAA gives it a 50% shot at another M flare and 15% at an X (as of Aug 25). Additional eruptions would be much better aimed than this one. 15/16 https://t.co
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Who will see the aurora? Nobody can name cities. During storms the oval pushes south, and during substorms the lights go tall and bright and reach much farther, often as red glow low on the horizon. Substorms are the whole game at mid-latitudes: https://t.co/gBUctDr8cr 12/16
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Watch the solar wind, the webcams, and the GOES magnetometers instead. They tell you when the CME actually arrived and when a substorm is starting, which is what gets you outside: https://t.co/MkdRG0nou1 14/16
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Don't lean on Kp or aurora apps here. That "% chance at your location" is the OVATION model, not a picture of what the aurora is actually doing, and neither it nor Kp can see a substorm coming: https://t.co/FWx1FFPoyf 13/16
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If the CME runs early it arrives during that same night, and there'd be a chance to shoot a red Moon and aurora in one frame. A full Moon normally washes out faint displays, but for about an hour around greatest eclipse it dims and those faint auroras get vivid. 11/16
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Now the part I'm pretty excited about. Thursday night into Friday there's a partial lunar eclipse that comes within a hair of total, about 96% of the Moon in Earth's shadow. Greatest eclipse is 04:13 UT: 12:13 AM Eastern, 11:13 PM Central, 9:13 PM Pacific. 10/16 https://t.co/yzRT
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L1 is where our upstream monitors sit, about a million miles sunward of Earth. They're the first thing to actually measure the CME: how fast, how dense, and which way its magnetic field (Bz) points. That's about an hour of warning, and it's the only "true" forecast we get. 9/16
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NOAA's watch: G1 minor Thursday from the coronal hole, G2 moderate Friday from the CMEs. Their bulletin puts the reach from New York to Idaho, but auroral visibility can't really be predicted this far out. It's "L1 or Bust," as my friend Tanya Melnik puts it. 8/16 https://t.co/42
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Three windows to keep track of: Early puts Thursday night in play for North America. On time favors the southern hemisphere, where 11 UT is Friday evening. Late brings Friday night back. And a strong impact could create lasting effects, so Friday night stays in play still. 7/16
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HUXt disagrees. It runs a bunch slightly different versions of the same forecast (an ensemble) to show you the spread, and it lands the median arrival 14 hours later, at 01:31 UT Aug 29, about 9:30 PM Eastern Friday night. It gives the CME a 79% chance of arriving at all. 6/16 ht
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When would it arrive? NOAA SWPC's ENLIL run says 11 UT Friday: 7 AM Eastern, 6 AM Central, 5 AM Mountain, 4 AM Pacific, 3 AM Alaska. NASA agrees. The uncertainty is about ±10 hours--pretty high due to the glancing blow nature of the impact. 5/16 https://t.co/EPu98xhIFZ
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The coronal hole matters for two reasons. Its eastern edge sits right next to AR 4513 and acted like a wall, keeping the eruption from spreading toward us. It's also sending 500-600 km/s wind from late Thursday, and the two could tag-team to produce some messy solar wind. 4/16 ht
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What happened: Tuesday morning, sunspot region AR 4513 fired off an M6.98 flare (call it an M7) and launched a CME, a giant cloud of solar plasma with a magnetic field tangled up inside. Actually two were launched, a smaller filament eruption alongside the main one. 2/16 https://
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My read on the coronagraphs: two pieces. The bulk of the cloud is heading east, away from us. A fainter, faster shock went west, and that's the piece that could clip Earth. It's hard to even see. A glancing blow off a relatively unimpressive eruption. 3/16 https://t.co/lgZgvwfa2G
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AURORA ALERT 🚨 NOAA has a G2 (moderate) geomagnetic storm watch up for Friday Aug 28, with G1 conditions Thursday. CMEs from Tuesday may clip Earth. Northern U.S. and Canada in play, plus a nearly total lunar eclipse Thursday night. Here's the rundown 👇 https://t.co/PM7cvHXZDE
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Aynı büyüklükteki hesaplara karşı
Son 90 güne ait 23 gönderi, 10K–100K takipçi aralığıyla yan yana. aynı büyüklükteki hesaplardan daha az kişiye ulaşıyor.
Medyan görüntülenme393bu hesap1 01010K–100K için medyan
Erişim, %0.80%bu hesap3.46%10K–100K için medyan
Etkileşim, %1.78%bu hesap1.79%10K–100K için medyan
| Ölçüt | Bu hesap | 10K–100K için medyan | Oran |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gönderi başına medyan görüntülenme | 393 | 1 010 | 0.39× |
| Erişim (görüntülenme ÷ takipçi) | 0.80% | 3.46% | 0.23× |
| Etkileşim oranı | 1.78% | 1.79% | 1.00× |
Bu aralıktaki diğer hesaplar → Başka bir hesapla karşılaştır → Bu kıyas değerleri nasıl kuruluyor →
Growth & engagement
How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.
Views per post
26726 Aug
307
193
180
294
928
856
97
3.1K12 Sep
757
2.4K
2.9K
33
1.4K
Last 14 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.
Engagement rate per post
3.00%26 Aug
2.61%
1.55%
2.78%
1.70%
0.86%
0.82%
0.00%
2.97%12 Sep
0.53%
1.85%
4.10%
3.03%
0.83%
Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views. Median for 10K–100K accounts is 1.79%.
What the audience does
Likes74.8%961 in total
Reposts15.6%200 in total
Replies2.2%28 in total
Bookmarks7.5%96 in total
Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.
Followers by day
12 Sep
Daily snapshots since 12 Sep 2026; the dashed line is the starting count.
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