Arny Trezzi ✓
@arny_trezzi · joined 24 May 2014
Investing in asymmetries. Early $PLTR $HOOD $ABCL $BSP
57 988Followers
440Following
46 241Posts total
498KViews on collected posts
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$ABCL: many things have changed since. Stock went up and down, but the core idea remains.
AbCellera is an elite call option generator.
I broke the thesis, but @JackPrescottX deserves the most credit for his tier1 research.
20.3K views · 228 likes
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$ABCL 635 shows positive Phase 2 Trial Results.
Boom babyyy.
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$PLTR funds must buy. https://t.co/CyklUOrtQv
46.6K views · 645 likes
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It's hard to justify not having $PLTR as a fund manager:
> crazy growth;
> crazy profitability;
> unlocks ROI in any industry;
> shapes narrative on sovereign AI;
> good entry valuation;
> no capex required;
> no competition.
72.1K views · 507 likes
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Is Burry nervous? https://t.co/pZ7r55YNCa
93.9K views · 946 likes
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@arny_trezzi @arny_trezzi Isn’t it about time you drop a fresh DD and updated analysis? Things are getting way too quiet right before the storm
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If you found this thread interesting please like and retweet the first tweet! 🙏
https://t.co/wMOqsom2Lq
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19/ $ABCL curiosities:
►Peter Thiel is on the board
►CEO is a goat (top professor)
►INSIDERS ARE BUYING AGGRESSIVELY
Broken business or asymmetry? 😊
- This is a very risky stock. I could be wrong.
- I have ABCL.
- Not financial advice. Do you own DD https://t.co/8QLEVkzPef
5K views · 68 likes
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18/ $ABCL key risks I see:
►interest rates: pure enemy of biotech valuation
►cash burn: now moderate at $50mn/y, can increase
►impatience: may need 2-3y before something happens
► competition: currently leader in antibody, but success can attract challengers
►key man CEO
3.3K views · 39 likes
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17/ $ABCL molecule portfolio is not static:
►20-30 programs are started each year (prob more with GMP / CMC)
►each program matures -> value increases
Therefore I don't see absurd ABCL returns $8 in the coming years.
The downside should be limited by the $800mn cash (35%).
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16/ $ABCL raw valuation.
The molecule portfolio could be worth ~$1bn:
►$11mn value of each program (15% disc rate, 10% success rate). Refer to 4/
►95 royalty programs started.
+$800mn cash =$1.8bn mkt cap, ~$7 per share (63% upside).
This excludes crucial considerations... ht
3.5K views · 38 likes
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15/ $ABCL analysts target a $24 price per share, which is ~6x the current price.
Too optimistic?
Currently, ABCL has almost no revenue. https://t.co/wJs0D1lYhd
3.4K views · 42 likes
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13/ $ABCL solves the biggest issues of drug development:
►Time: ~9 to 12y from initiation to drug approval.
►Cost: ~$3bn per drug development.
►Failure: ~90% of candidates fail to reach approval.
= strong disincentive to invest in drug development. https://t.co/FA4eZ8rktA
3.5K views · 44 likes
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14/ $ABCL faces a huge opportunity as the leading company in the antibody discovery market.
$400bn by 2030 is the expected Commercial Antibody Medicines market size. https://t.co/jzvcrataA6
3.4K views · 38 likes
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11/ $ABCL pre-partnered programs (now 15) offer a major upside.
These consist of the use of its own platform and R&D to develop fully owned assets.
►could be then sold to partners for commercialization (royalties).
The focus is on Cancer antibodies -promising vs benchmarks! ht
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12/ $ABCL is currently waiting for the approval of its third Covid19 antibody.
If this is approved, more royalties should come. https://t.co/pUQ9xuVTbj
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10/ $ABCL provides partners with its Drug Discovery capabilities, which are extremely science/tech-intensive.
The GMP/CMC facility, to be finalized in 2024
►fasten the pre-clinical phase.
GMP/CMC help write the "recipe and instructions" of the antibody. https://t.co/ay1doqb8tM
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8/ $ABCL is a call options generator.
Classical biotechs go "YOLO" into a couple of programs.
Inversely, Abcellera is a tech with a flywheel.
As the flywheel spins faster, more options are generated.
partners►programs►data►accuracy►speed►molecules►programs►[repeat] https://t.c
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9/ $ABCL has partnered with 40+ drug developers of all sizes.
All the "big pharma" are AbCellera partners.
►outsource antibody discovery to ABCL
This way they transfer the risk from their own R&D to the AbCellera capabilities. https://t.co/SwdQ9e83Hc
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7/ $ABCL proved its tech during Covid19: 3 months to develop the first antibody!
Eli Lilly, partner of the program, sold the antibody and generated ~$1bn Revenue for ABCL (royalties).
Now ~0 Revenues as the antibody as ineffective vs the new variants (new antibody dropping) htt
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6/ $ABCL, with downstream programs, is entitled to receive ~4% of the revenues from the sales of the antibody discovered in royalties.
NB Abcellera doesn’t incur costs from the commercialization = almost pure FCF. https://t.co/q8FCQx1Otd
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5/ $ABCL each molecule program is essentially a long-term deep OTM call option with a ~5%/7% success rate after 9y.
Timeline:
~3y for the discovery and preclinical phase
~5y years for the FDA phases.
~5y to reach peak sales. https://t.co/6iWbB0EuHC
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4/ $ABCL can be seen as a diversified portfolio of ~95 antibody programs with royalties capabilities.
Molecule portfolio value:
= NPV of molecule * num of molecules.
►The value of the portfolio increases by progressing existing molecules and by increasing the programs https://t
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3/ What $ABCL does?
ABCL discovers the best antibodies to develop drugs by leveraging its tech platform.
This short clip helps visualize it: https://t.co/voVCqgYOyt
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2/ $ABCL at $4 is like “pay $1.2bn for the company to get $800mn Cash and:
►Proven tech to identify antibodies x drug develop.
►9 molecules
►150+ programs w/ royalties opp. (~80 started)
►15 fully owned programs
►$200mn PPE
►$200mn+ Canadian Gov funding
ALMOST FOR FREE.” https:
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1/ $ABCL: proven antibody drug discovery. For free.
At $4 it seems an asymmetric situation with relatively little downside and potential explosive upside.
My thesis in a few charts 👇 https://t.co/33ATJHbhJk
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Im Vergleich zu Konten gleicher Größe
4 Beiträge aus den letzten 90 Tagen, verglichen mit der Größenklasse 10K–100K Follower. wird mehr Menschen gezeigt als Konten gleicher Größe.
Medianaufrufe33 475dieses Konto924Median für 10K–100K
Reichweite, %57.73%dieses Konto3.62%Median für 10K–100K
Interaktion, %1.26%dieses Konto1.52%Median für 10K–100K
| Kennzahl | Dieses Konto | Median für 10K–100K | Verhältnis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medianaufrufe pro Beitrag | 33 475 | 924 | 36.2× |
| Reichweite (Aufrufe ÷ Follower) | 57.73% | 3.62% | 15.9× |
| Interaktionsrate | 1.26% | 1.52% | 0.83× |
Weitere Konten dieser Größe → Mit einem anderen Konto vergleichen → Wie diese Vergleichswerte entstehen →
Growth & engagement
How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.
Views per post
3.4K19 Oct
3.5K
3.4K
3.5K
3.2K
3.3K
5K
7.4K
31224 Jul
93.9K14 Feb
72.1K5 Aug
46.6K7 Aug
18K10 Aug
20.3K
Last 14 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.
Engagement rate per post
1.19%19 Oct
1.37%
1.34%
1.21%
1.06%
1.30%
1.51%
1.11%
3.53%24 Jul
1.22%14 Feb
0.80%5 Aug
1.48%7 Aug
1.26%10 Aug
1.26%
Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views. Median for 10K–100K accounts is 1.52%.
What the audience does
Likes79.7%3 687 in total
Reposts5.3%243 in total
Replies5.8%270 in total
Quotes0.8%37 in total
Bookmarks8.4%388 in total
Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.
The follower curve appears once this account has two daily snapshots — we take one a day, and this one is on its first.
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