Arny Trezzi ✓

@arny_trezzi · joined 24 May 2014

Investing in asymmetries. Early $PLTR $HOOD $ABCL $BSP

57 988Followers

440Following

46 241Posts total

498KViews on collected posts

Against accounts of the same size

4 posts from the last 90 days, next to the 10K–100K follower range. shown widely, but few of those viewers react.

Median views33 475this account942median for 10K–100K

Reach, %57.73%this account3.24%median for 10K–100K

Engagement, %1.26%this account1.99%median for 10K–100K

Metric	This account	Median for 10K–100K	Ratio
Median views per post	33 475	942	35.5×
Reach (views ÷ followers)	57.73%	3.24%	17.8×
Engagement rate	1.26%	1.99%	0.63×

Others in this range → Compare with another account → How these benchmarks are built →

Growth & engagement

How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.

Views per post

3.5K19 Oct

3.4K

3.2K

3.5K

3.3K

7.4K

31224 Jul

93.9K14 Feb

72.1K5 Aug

46.6K7 Aug

18K10 Aug

20.3K

Last 14 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.

Engagement rate per post

1.37%19 Oct

1.19%

1.34%

1.06%

1.21%

1.30%

1.51%

1.11%

3.53%24 Jul

1.22%14 Feb

0.80%5 Aug

1.48%7 Aug

1.26%10 Aug

1.26%

Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views. Median for 10K–100K accounts is 1.99%.

What the audience does

Likes79.7%3 687 in total

Reposts5.3%243 in total

Replies5.8%270 in total

Quotes0.8%37 in total

Bookmarks8.4%388 in total

Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.

The follower curve appears once this account has two daily snapshots — we take one a day, and this one is on its first.

Latest posts

$ABCL: many things have changed since. Stock went up and down, but the core idea remains. AbCellera is an elite call option generator. I broke the thesis, but @JackPrescottX deserves the most credit for his tier1 research. 20.3K views · 228 likes · 13 reposts · 15 replies 10 Aug 2026 · Open on X →

$ABCL 635 shows positive Phase 2 Trial Results. Boom babyyy. 18K views · 210 likes · 9 reposts · 7 replies 10 Aug 2026 · Open on X →

$PLTR funds must buy. https://t.co/CyklUOrtQv 46.6K views · 645 likes · 27 reposts · 18 replies 07 Aug 2026 · Open on X →

It's hard to justify not having $PLTR as a fund manager: > crazy growth; > crazy profitability; > unlocks ROI in any industry; > shapes narrative on sovereign AI; > good entry valuation; > no capex required; > no competition. 72.1K views · 507 likes · 34 reposts · 31 replies 05 Aug 2026 · Open on X →

Is Burry nervous? https://t.co/pZ7r55YNCa 93.9K views · 946 likes · 46 reposts · 139 replies 14 Feb 2026 · Open on X →

@arny_trezzi @arny_trezzi Isn’t it about time you drop a fresh DD and updated analysis? Things are getting way too quiet right before the storm 312 views · 11 likes · 0 reposts · 0 replies 24 Jul 2025 · Open on X →

If you found this thread interesting please like and retweet the first tweet! 🙏 https://t.co/wMOqsom2Lq 7.4K views · 68 likes · 7 reposts · 7 replies 19 Oct 2023 · Open on X →

19/ $ABCL curiosities: ►Peter Thiel is on the board ►CEO is a goat (top professor) ►INSIDERS ARE BUYING AGGRESSIVELY Broken business or asymmetry? 😊 - This is a very risky stock. I could be wrong. - I have ABCL. - Not financial advice. Do you own DD https://t.co/8QLEVkzPef 5K views · 68 likes · 4 reposts · 4 replies 19 Oct 2023 · Open on X →

18/ $ABCL key risks I see: ►interest rates: pure enemy of biotech valuation ►cash burn: now moderate at $50mn/y, can increase ►impatience: may need 2-3y before something happens ► competition: currently leader in antibody, but success can attract challengers ►key man CEO 3.3K views · 39 likes · 3 reposts · 1 replies 19 Oct 2023 · Open on X →

16/ $ABCL raw valuation. The molecule portfolio could be worth ~$1bn: ►$11mn value of each program (15% disc rate, 10% success rate). Refer to 4/ ►95 royalty programs started. +$800mn cash =$1.8bn mkt cap, ~$7 per share (63% upside). This excludes crucial considerations... ht 3.5K views · 38 likes · 2 reposts · 2 replies 19 Oct 2023 · Open on X →

17/ $ABCL molecule portfolio is not static: ►20-30 programs are started each year (prob more with GMP / CMC) ►each program matures -> value increases Therefore I don't see absurd ABCL returns $8 in the coming years. The downside should be limited by the $800mn cash (35%). 3.2K views · 31 likes · 2 reposts · 1 replies 19 Oct 2023 · Open on X →

15/ $ABCL analysts target a $24 price per share, which is ~6x the current price. Too optimistic? Currently, ABCL has almost no revenue. https://t.co/wJs0D1lYhd 3.4K views · 42 likes · 3 reposts · 1 replies 19 Oct 2023 · Open on X →

14/ $ABCL faces a huge opportunity as the leading company in the antibody discovery market. $400bn by 2030 is the expected Commercial Antibody Medicines market size. https://t.co/jzvcrataA6 3.4K views · 38 likes · 2 reposts · 1 replies 19 Oct 2023 · Open on X →

13/ $ABCL solves the biggest issues of drug development: ►Time: ~9 to 12y from initiation to drug approval. ►Cost: ~$3bn per drug development. ►Failure: ~90% of candidates fail to reach approval. = strong disincentive to invest in drug development. https://t.co/FA4eZ8rktA 3.5K views · 44 likes · 2 reposts · 2 replies 19 Oct 2023 · Open on X →

12/ $ABCL is currently waiting for the approval of its third Covid19 antibody. If this is approved, more royalties should come. https://t.co/pUQ9xuVTbj 3.5K views · 37 likes · 2 reposts · 1 replies 19 Oct 2023 · Open on X →

11/ $ABCL pre-partnered programs (now 15) offer a major upside. These consist of the use of its own platform and R&D to develop fully owned assets. ►could be then sold to partners for commercialization (royalties). The focus is on Cancer antibodies -promising vs benchmarks 3.7K views · 33 likes · 2 reposts · 1 replies 19 Oct 2023 · Open on X →

10/ $ABCL provides partners with its Drug Discovery capabilities, which are extremely science/tech-intensive. The GMP/CMC facility, to be finalized in 2024 ►fasten the pre-clinical phase. GMP/CMC help write the "recipe and instructions" of the antibody. https://t.co/ay1doqb8tM 3.9K views · 34 likes · 2 reposts · 1 replies 19 Oct 2023 · Open on X →

9/ $ABCL has partnered with 40+ drug developers of all sizes. All the "big pharma" are AbCellera partners. ►outsource antibody discovery to ABCL This way they transfer the risk from their own R&D to the AbCellera capabilities. https://t.co/SwdQ9e83Hc 4.3K views · 49 likes · 3 reposts · 1 replies 19 Oct 2023 · Open on X →

8/ $ABCL is a call options generator. Classical biotechs go "YOLO" into a couple of programs. Inversely, Abcellera is a tech with a flywheel. As the flywheel spins faster, more options are generated. partners►programs►data►accuracy►speed►molecules►programs►[repeat] https://t.c 4.6K views · 44 likes · 2 reposts · 1 replies 19 Oct 2023 · Open on X →

6/ $ABCL, with downstream programs, is entitled to receive ~4% of the revenues from the sales of the antibody discovered in royalties. NB Abcellera doesn’t incur costs from the commercialization = almost pure FCF. https://t.co/q8FCQx1Otd 4.7K views · 38 likes · 2 reposts · 1 replies 19 Oct 2023 · Open on X →

7/ $ABCL proved its tech during Covid19: 3 months to develop the first antibody! Eli Lilly, partner of the program, sold the antibody and generated ~$1bn Revenue for ABCL (royalties). Now ~0 Revenues as the antibody as ineffective vs the new variants (new antibody dropping) htt 4.4K views · 41 likes · 3 reposts · 2 replies 19 Oct 2023 · Open on X →

5/ $ABCL each molecule program is essentially a long-term deep OTM call option with a ~5%/7% success rate after 9y. Timeline: ~3y for the discovery and preclinical phase ~5y years for the FDA phases. ~5y to reach peak sales. https://t.co/6iWbB0EuHC 5.2K views · 43 likes · 3 reposts · 2 replies 19 Oct 2023 · Open on X →

4/ $ABCL can be seen as a diversified portfolio of ~95 antibody programs with royalties capabilities. Molecule portfolio value: = NPV of molecule * num of molecules. ►The value of the portfolio increases by progressing existing molecules and by increasing the programs https://t 5.5K views · 39 likes · 2 reposts · 1 replies 19 Oct 2023 · Open on X →

3/ What $ABCL does? ABCL discovers the best antibodies to develop drugs by leveraging its tech platform. This short clip helps visualize it: https://t.co/voVCqgYOyt 10.1K views · 66 likes · 8 reposts · 2 replies 19 Oct 2023 · Open on X →

1/ $ABCL: proven antibody drug discovery. For free. At $4 it seems an asymmetric situation with relatively little downside and potential explosive upside. My thesis in a few charts 👇 https://t.co/33ATJHbhJk 157.3K views · 297 likes · 56 reposts · 24 replies 19 Oct 2023 · Open on X →

2/ $ABCL at $4 is like “pay $1.2bn for the company to get $800mn Cash and: ►Proven tech to identify antibodies x drug develop. ►9 molecules ►150+ programs w/ royalties opp. (~80 started) ►15 fully owned programs ►$200mn PPE ►$200mn+ Canadian Gov funding ALMOST FOR FREE.” https: 6.6K views · 51 likes · 4 reposts · 4 replies 19 Oct 2023 · Open on X →