Parker Ross ✓
@Econ_Parker · Darien, CT · joined 14 May 2009
Global Chief Economist @ ACGL | ex JPM AIG HUD | Husband to Jamie; Dad to Landon, Greyson & Logan | No investment advice & views are my own 🦬🇺🇸🇮🇱
25 437Followers
659Following
8 473Posts total
447.3KViews on collected posts
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@Econ_Parker What a wonderful post and thread. Well done and thank you!
2.3K views · 29 likes
· 1 reposts · 3 replies
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Last chart, and perhaps the most important one: smooth through the noise.
August core CPI: +0.29%
3m avg: ~0.16%
6m avg: ~0.21%
One noisy print doesn’t make a new inflation trend. https://t.co/Pj1dS2MKNt
5.8K views · 95 likes
· 5 reposts · 11 replies
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So yes, August CPI was hot.
But the heat was remarkably concentrated:
Energy → headline
Wireless + hotels → core services / supercore
Vehicles → core goods
That looks a lot more like monthly noise than a sudden broad-based reacceleration in inflation.
4.5K views · 68 likes
· 5 reposts · 1 replies
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Core goods inflation was a modest +0.11% m/m.
Virtually all of that came from transportation commodities, split roughly evenly between new and used vehicles.
Everything else in core goods was essentially flat on net. https://t.co/sMe7puQwmD
4.8K views · 52 likes
· 0 reposts · 1 replies
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Core services looked hot too at +0.33% m/m.
But again, look at the composition.
Wireless phone services contributed 12.7bps and lodging another 5.5bps.
Together, those two categories accounted for more than half of core services inflation in August. https://t.co/SFUKz3eSM3
8.7K views · 55 likes
· 2 reposts · 1 replies
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Headline CPI looked hot too at +0.40% m/m.
But energy alone contributed 15bps - nearly 40% of the increase - and generally expected.
Food added just 2bps.
Again, composition matters. https://t.co/NYZp0jCo5z
6K views · 67 likes
· 1 reposts · 2 replies
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And it’s not just supercore.
Wireless services + lodging away from home contributed 14bps of the 29bp increase in core CPI.
Everything else combined: ~15bps.
Two notoriously noisy categories did a lot of work in this report. https://t.co/mVsGB5sLzG
8.8K views · 103 likes
· 7 reposts · 5 replies
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Supercore CPI jumped 0.51% m/m in August, which is getting plenty of attention this morning and sent Sept rate hike odds surging briefly to ~100%.
But it’s worth looking under the hood: 29bps (more than half of the 0.51% increase) came from wireless phone services alone.
Unless
253.4K views · 753 likes
· 118 reposts · 67 replies
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Here we go again with the BLS Birth-Death model hot takes…
A lot of analysis circulating today claiming the birth-death model inflated January's 130k job gain.
Some are even subtracting the B-D contribution from the headline to argue the "real" number was negative.
The https:/
7.7K views · 26 likes
· 3 reposts · 2 replies
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The BLS just released the *final* CES benchmark revisions with this morning's jobs report.
The 2025 labor market was dramatically weaker than originally reported... and for 12 straight months, job growth was never statistically different from zero.
A deep dive with charts in ht
13.4K views · 45 likes
· 9 reposts · 2 replies
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@Econ_Parker The reason inventory is low is because millions of people are locked into sub 5% rates, and won't move into a 6% rate.
Rates come down, inventory will go up!
In Arizona if the weather is hot people stay inside, if the weather is cool people come outside
you got m
1.1K views · 15 likes
· 0 reposts · 0 replies
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Real-time policy transmission...
Collapsing mortgage spreads translating to immediate relief for the 30Y fixed rate mortgage.
First time below 6% since early '23 according to @mortgagenewsmnd https://t.co/SoxEp4zEF2
20.1K views · 83 likes
· 9 reposts · 9 replies
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We've shifted from a market-driven spread to a policy-targeted one.
This is a clear tailwind for transaction volumes and refis in the near term, but the long-term impact on "affordability" remains a tug-of-war between lower rates and rising prices.
Monitoring the OAS chart is
4.2K views · 29 likes
· 0 reposts · 8 replies
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The stated goal is to restore affordability, but the macro trade-off is significant.
In a market still defined by severe inventory constraints, lower mortgage rates risk being immediately passed through into higher home prices.
We may see a "faster treadmill" effect where
4.7K views · 35 likes
· 4 reposts · 5 replies
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Look again at the Current Coupon MBS OAS.
We are seeing a "forced" mean-reversion of spreads toward 2018–2019 levels.
By acting as a price-insensitive buyer, the GSEs will be bypassing the Fed and targeting mortgage spreads directly.
If the spread stays compressed, mortgage
3.1K views · 33 likes
· 2 reposts · 1 replies
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The $200B figure is massive relative to GSE capital. For context, Fannie and Freddie have a combined accumulated net worth of ~$173B as of late 2025.
By directing a $200B build-up, the administration is effectively deploying the entirety of the capital cushion built up over the
3.8K views · 36 likes
· 3 reposts · 3 replies
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Secondary mortgage spreads are down a massive 20bps+ on the week, with most of that move happening this morning.
What's happening? The mortgage market is undergoing a structural repricing following the directive for Fannie & Freddie to deploy $200B into MBS.
Let's dig in a bit
94.8K views · 134 likes
· 25 reposts · 7 replies
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Face aux comptes de taille comparable
8 posts des 90 derniers jours, à côté de la tranche de 10K–100K abonnés. diffusé largement, mais peu de ces spectateurs réagissent.
Vues médianes5 898ce compte1 014médiane pour 10K–100K
Portée, %23.19%ce compte3.74%médiane pour 10K–100K
Engagement, %1.23%ce compte1.68%médiane pour 10K–100K
| Indicateur | Ce compte | Médiane pour 10K–100K | Rapport |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vues médianes par post | 5 898 | 1 014 | 5.82× |
| Portée (vues ÷ abonnés) | 23.19% | 3.74% | 6.20× |
| Taux d'engagement | 1.23% | 1.68% | 0.73× |
Autres comptes de cette tranche → Comparer avec un autre compte → Comment ces repères sont établis →
Growth & engagement
How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.
Views per post
4.7K9 Jan
4.2K
20.1K
1.1K
13.4K11 Feb
7.7K
253.4K11 Sep
8.8K
6K
8.7K
4.8K
4.5K
5.8K
2.3K
Last 14 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.
Engagement rate per post
0.94%9 Jan
0.88%
0.50%
1.31%
0.42%11 Feb
0.40%
0.37%11 Sep
1.31%
1.16%
0.67%
1.11%
1.65%
1.93%
1.41%
Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views. Median for 10K–100K accounts is 1.68%.
What the audience does
Likes68.6%1 658 in total
Reposts8.0%194 in total
Replies5.3%128 in total
Bookmarks18.0%436 in total
Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.
The follower curve appears once this account has two daily snapshots — we take one a day, and this one is on its first.
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