Parker Ross ✓

@Econ_Parker · Darien, CT · joined 14 May 2009

Global Chief Economist @ ACGL | ex JPM AIG HUD | Husband to Jamie; Dad to Landon, Greyson & Logan | No investment advice & views are my own 🦬🇺🇸🇮🇱

25 437Followers

659Following

8 473Posts total

447.3KViews on collected posts

Latest posts

Parker Ross ✓@Econ_Parker11 Sep

@Econ_Parker What a wonderful post and thread. Well done and thank you! 2.3K views · 29 likes · 1 reposts · 3 replies Open on X →

Parker Ross ✓@Econ_Parker11 Sep

Last chart, and perhaps the most important one: smooth through the noise. August core CPI: +0.29% 3m avg: ~0.16% 6m avg: ~0.21% One noisy print doesn’t make a new inflation trend. https://t.co/Pj1dS2MKNt

5.8K views · 95 likes · 5 reposts · 11 replies Open on X →

Parker Ross ✓@Econ_Parker11 Sep

So yes, August CPI was hot. But the heat was remarkably concentrated: Energy → headline Wireless + hotels → core services / supercore Vehicles → core goods That looks a lot more like monthly noise than a sudden broad-based reacceleration in inflation. 4.5K views · 68 likes · 5 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →

Parker Ross ✓@Econ_Parker11 Sep

Core goods inflation was a modest +0.11% m/m. Virtually all of that came from transportation commodities, split roughly evenly between new and used vehicles. Everything else in core goods was essentially flat on net. https://t.co/sMe7puQwmD

4.8K views · 52 likes · 0 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →

Parker Ross ✓@Econ_Parker11 Sep

Core services looked hot too at +0.33% m/m. But again, look at the composition. Wireless phone services contributed 12.7bps and lodging another 5.5bps. Together, those two categories accounted for more than half of core services inflation in August. https://t.co/SFUKz3eSM3

8.7K views · 55 likes · 2 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →

Parker Ross ✓@Econ_Parker11 Sep

Headline CPI looked hot too at +0.40% m/m. But energy alone contributed 15bps - nearly 40% of the increase - and generally expected. Food added just 2bps. Again, composition matters. https://t.co/NYZp0jCo5z

6K views · 67 likes · 1 reposts · 2 replies Open on X →

Parker Ross ✓@Econ_Parker11 Sep

And it’s not just supercore. Wireless services + lodging away from home contributed 14bps of the 29bp increase in core CPI. Everything else combined: ~15bps. Two notoriously noisy categories did a lot of work in this report. https://t.co/mVsGB5sLzG

8.8K views · 103 likes · 7 reposts · 5 replies Open on X →

Parker Ross ✓@Econ_Parker11 Sep

Supercore CPI jumped 0.51% m/m in August, which is getting plenty of attention this morning and sent Sept rate hike odds surging briefly to ~100%. But it’s worth looking under the hood: 29bps (more than half of the 0.51% increase) came from wireless phone services alone. Unless

253.4K views · 753 likes · 118 reposts · 67 replies Open on X →

Parker Ross ✓@Econ_Parker11 Feb

Here we go again with the BLS Birth-Death model hot takes… A lot of analysis circulating today claiming the birth-death model inflated January's 130k job gain. Some are even subtracting the B-D contribution from the headline to argue the "real" number was negative. The https:/

7.7K views · 26 likes · 3 reposts · 2 replies Open on X →

Parker Ross ✓@Econ_Parker11 Feb

The BLS just released the *final* CES benchmark revisions with this morning's jobs report. The 2025 labor market was dramatically weaker than originally reported... and for 12 straight months, job growth was never statistically different from zero. A deep dive with charts in ht

13.4K views · 45 likes · 9 reposts · 2 replies Open on X →

Parker Ross ✓@Econ_Parker9 Jan

@Econ_Parker The reason inventory is low is because millions of people are locked into sub 5% rates, and won't move into a 6% rate. Rates come down, inventory will go up! In Arizona if the weather is hot people stay inside, if the weather is cool people come outside you got m 1.1K views · 15 likes · 0 reposts · 0 replies Open on X →

Parker Ross ✓@Econ_Parker9 Jan

Real-time policy transmission... Collapsing mortgage spreads translating to immediate relief for the 30Y fixed rate mortgage. First time below 6% since early '23 according to @mortgagenewsmnd https://t.co/SoxEp4zEF2

20.1K views · 83 likes · 9 reposts · 9 replies Open on X →

Parker Ross ✓@Econ_Parker9 Jan

We've shifted from a market-driven spread to a policy-targeted one. This is a clear tailwind for transaction volumes and refis in the near term, but the long-term impact on "affordability" remains a tug-of-war between lower rates and rising prices. Monitoring the OAS chart is 4.2K views · 29 likes · 0 reposts · 8 replies Open on X →

Parker Ross ✓@Econ_Parker9 Jan

The stated goal is to restore affordability, but the macro trade-off is significant. In a market still defined by severe inventory constraints, lower mortgage rates risk being immediately passed through into higher home prices. We may see a "faster treadmill" effect where 4.7K views · 35 likes · 4 reposts · 5 replies Open on X →

Parker Ross ✓@Econ_Parker9 Jan

Look again at the Current Coupon MBS OAS. We are seeing a "forced" mean-reversion of spreads toward 2018–2019 levels. By acting as a price-insensitive buyer, the GSEs will be bypassing the Fed and targeting mortgage spreads directly. If the spread stays compressed, mortgage

3.1K views · 33 likes · 2 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →

Parker Ross ✓@Econ_Parker9 Jan

The $200B figure is massive relative to GSE capital. For context, Fannie and Freddie have a combined accumulated net worth of ~$173B as of late 2025. By directing a $200B build-up, the administration is effectively deploying the entirety of the capital cushion built up over the

3.8K views · 36 likes · 3 reposts · 3 replies Open on X →

Parker Ross ✓@Econ_Parker9 Jan

Secondary mortgage spreads are down a massive 20bps+ on the week, with most of that move happening this morning. What's happening? The mortgage market is undergoing a structural repricing following the directive for Fannie & Freddie to deploy $200B into MBS. Let's dig in a bit

94.8K views · 134 likes · 25 reposts · 7 replies Open on X →

Against accounts of the same size

8 posts from the last 90 days, next to the 10K–100K follower range. shown widely, but few of those viewers react.

Median views5 898this account1 026median for 10K–100K

Reach, %23.19%this account3.75%median for 10K–100K

Engagement, %1.23%this account1.68%median for 10K–100K

Metric	This account	Median for 10K–100K	Ratio
Median views per post	5 898	1 026	5.75×
Reach (views ÷ followers)	23.19%	3.75%	6.18×
Engagement rate	1.23%	1.68%	0.73×

Others in this range → Compare with another account → How these benchmarks are built →

Growth & engagement

How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.

Views per post

4.7K9 Jan

4.2K

20.1K

1.1K

13.4K11 Feb

7.7K

253.4K11 Sep

8.8K

8.7K

4.8K

4.5K

5.8K

2.3K

Last 14 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.

Engagement rate per post

0.94%9 Jan

0.88%

0.50%

1.31%

0.42%11 Feb

0.40%

0.37%11 Sep

1.31%

1.16%

0.67%

1.11%

1.65%

1.93%

1.41%

Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views. Median for 10K–100K accounts is 1.68%.

What the audience does

Likes68.6%1 658 in total

Reposts8.0%194 in total

Replies5.3%128 in total

Bookmarks18.0%436 in total

Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.

The follower curve appears once this account has two daily snapshots — we take one a day, and this one is on its first.

Latest posts

Against accounts of the same size

Growth & engagement

Views per post

Engagement rate per post

What the audience does

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