Naija ✓
@Naija_PR · Nigeria · joined 24 Sep 2013
News and topic discussions from Nigeria | Email: realnaijapr@gmail.com
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Nigeria’s ₦24.7tn domestic borrowing figure is therefore not simply a story about “more debt.”
It is really three stories:
Old debt being refinanced.
New deficits being financed.
And government competing with the private sector for the same pool of money.
Understanding which
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And for ordinary Nigerians, the effect eventually leaves Abuja.
High government borrowing and high yields can influence:
• Business loan rates
• Mortgage costs
• Investment and hiring
• Government interest spending
• How much revenue remains for public services
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Those answers tell you far more about Nigeria’s fiscal position than the gross issuance number alone.
Because ₦10tn rolled over at a lower rate can improve the debt profile...
while much smaller fresh borrowing at extremely high rates can become expensive.
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So when you see:
“FG borrows ₦24.7tn”
three questions matter more than the headline:
How much replaced old debt?
How much is genuinely new borrowing?
At what interest rate was the money raised?
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There can be a positive scenario too.
If inflation continues falling and market interest rates decline, government may refinance future debt more cheaply.
Lower government yields can also make lending to businesses relatively more attractive again.
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High government borrowing can also interact with monetary policy.
If inflation is high and the CBN maintains tight financial conditions, yields across the economy can remain elevated.
Government then refinances debt in an expensive interest-rate environment.
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That creates a refinancing risk.
Government may successfully repay a maturing bond...
…but replace it with a new bond carrying a significantly higher interest rate.
The debt has been rolled over, yet the future annual interest bill becomes heavier.
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Nigeria already spends a large share of government revenue servicing debt.
As older, cheaper securities mature and are refinanced at higher yields, the average cost of the debt portfolio can increase even without an equally dramatic increase in principal.
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Multiply that across trillions of naira and debt servicing becomes enormous.
This is why the interest rate at which government borrows can matter almost as much as the amount borrowed.
Cheap debt and expensive debt create very different fiscal burdens.
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The price is particularly important.
When government borrows at high yields today, taxpayers inherit those interest payments tomorrow.
A ₦1tn bond at 10% interest costs roughly ₦100bn annually before principal repayment.
At 20%, that becomes about ₦200bn.
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There is another side.
Government borrowing is not automatically harmful.
A functioning bond market gives pension funds and savers relatively secure investment options and helps government finance expenditure without simply creating new money.
What matters is the scale, price
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And high interest rates change business decisions.
A company considering a new factory might abandon the project if financing becomes too expensive.
A small business may avoid taking a loan.
A property developer may build fewer houses.
Investment slows.
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Businesses can still borrow.
But they may have to offer higher interest rates to compete with government for funds.
Banks effectively ask:
“If government will pay me X%, why should I lend to your company for less?”
That can push private-sector borrowing costs upward.
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Economists call the potential result crowding out.
Large government borrowing can absorb money that might otherwise finance:
• Business expansion
• Factory construction
• Mortgages
• SME loans
• Consumer credit
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Government securities are generally considered lower-risk than lending to a private company.
So when Treasury Bills or bonds offer very high yields, investors may prefer government paper.
Why take more business risk if government will pay an attractive return?
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But government borrowing has consequences.
Imagine government enters the market offering attractive returns on Treasury Bills and bonds.
Banks and investors now have a choice:
Lend to government
or
Lend to businesses.
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So why borrow so heavily in the domestic market?
Government needs cash for:
• Budget deficits
• Maturing debt
• Infrastructure and other spending
• Cash-flow management
And Nigeria’s pension funds and financial institutions provide a large pool of naira that can buy
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Think of it like a household refinancing a mortgage.
If you owe a bank ₦20m and replace that loan with another ₦20m loan, you have borrowed ₦20m again...
…but you haven’t suddenly become ₦40m in debt.
Government debt rollover works similarly.
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This is why the annual borrowing target matters.
If the government’s planned new borrowing for the year is much lower than ₦24.7tn, seeing ₦24.7tn of securities issued does not automatically mean the borrowing target has been exceeded.
You have to subtract refinancing.
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But Nigeria is also taking on fresh debt.
The 2026 federal budget contains a financing gap that government intends to cover through new domestic and external borrowing.
That fresh borrowing increases the outstanding debt stock rather than simply replacing maturing securities.
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That distinction is crucial when looking at the ₦24.7tn figure.
It represents total domestic issuance/borrowing activity.
It should not automatically be interpreted as ₦24.7tn added to Nigeria’s debt stock.
Some of it is replacing obligations government already owed.
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So if government issues ₦1tn of new bonds but ₦700bn is being used to replace bonds that just matured, the debt stock does NOT necessarily increase by the full ₦1tn.
The genuinely new borrowing in that example is closer to ₦300bn.
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When an old Treasury Bill or bond matures, government must repay the investor.
Instead of finding all that money from tax revenue, government often issues another security.
That is called refinancing or rollover.
Old debt matures → new debt replaces it.
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Government borrows domestically mainly through instruments such as:
• Nigerian Treasury Bills
• Federal Government Bonds
• Savings Bonds
• Other naira-denominated securities
Banks, pension funds, asset managers, companies and individuals buy them.
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Nigeria’s Federal Government has raised about ₦24.7 trillion from the domestic debt market this year.
That sounds like ₦24.7tn of completely new debt.
It isn’t.
A large part is money borrowed to repay old debt that matured.
Here’s the difference.
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For many Nigerian businesses, taxation hasn’t meant one clear bill.
It can mean several officials, multiple levies, roadblocks and sometimes cash demands with little explanation.
Now, 18 states have adopted a system meant to change that. https://t.co/Pkiuadzijq
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@Naija_PR Before you speak to people, speak to God first. 🙏🏽 A few quiet moments in prayer can give you the clarity, wisdom and strength to handle whatever the day brings.
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Do this before you talk to anyone daily. https://t.co/RlGSJm4H5V
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0:54
Dibandingkan akun berukuran sama
32 postingan dari 90 hari terakhir, dibandingkan dengan rentang 1M–10M pengikut. menjangkau lebih sedikit orang, tetapi melibatkan mereka jauh lebih kuat.
Median tayangan60akun ini16 796median untuk 1M–10M
Jangkauan, %0.00%akun ini0.77%median untuk 1M–10M
Interaksi, %2.43%akun ini1.06%median untuk 1M–10M
| Metrik | Akun ini | Median untuk 1M–10M | Rasio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median tayangan per postingan | 60 | 16 796 | 0.00× |
| Jangkauan (tayangan ÷ pengikut) | 0.00% | 0.77% | 0.00× |
| Tingkat interaksi | 2.43% | 1.06% | 2.30× |
Akun lain pada rentang ini → Bandingkan dengan akun lain → Bagaimana tolok ukur ini disusun →
Growth & engagement
How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.
Views per post
437 Sep
37
37
50
43
36
36
37
34
36
36
1.3K
1.4K
51
Last 14 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.
Engagement rate per post
2.33%7 Sep
2.70%
2.70%
2.00%
2.33%
2.78%
2.78%
2.70%
2.94%
2.78%
2.78%
0.08%
0.00%
1.96%
Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views. Median for 1M–10M accounts is 1.06%.
What the audience does
Likes75.5%2 158 in total
Reposts12.4%354 in total
Replies1.2%34 in total
Quotes0.2%5 in total
Bookmarks10.8%309 in total
Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.
The follower curve appears once this account has two daily snapshots — we take one a day, and this one is on its first.
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