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CA ET Nerd ✓

@earlyvotedata · United States · joined 21 Oct 2018

Election Twitter Nerd, I do election analysis/predictions on my own for fun. History Buff.

13 369Followers
4 060Following
95 247Posts total
1.1MViews on collected posts

Ultimi post

STOP THE COUNT!! 1.9K views · 75 likes · 1 reposts · 5 replies Open on X →
Close race in SoCal! 1.8K views · 28 likes · 3 reposts · 3 replies Open on X →
That was a solid jobs report. 3.7K views · 138 likes · 11 reposts · 9 replies Open on X →
August jobs report came in much stronger than expected. Nonfarm payrolls: +162K vs. +55K expected Unemployment: 4.1%, as expected Hourly earnings: +0.3% MoM Hourly earnings: +4.1% YoY This is a clear upside surprise on jobs, with unemployment holding steady. Politically, the 13.6K views · 93 likes · 21 reposts · 10 replies Open on X →
Democrats get a redistricting win here in Maryland. Would impact 2028 if passed. 5.5K views · 45 likes · 2 reposts · 7 replies Open on X →
Maryland's Supreme Court rules that Question 3 can stay on the November ballot. Question 3 would allow Maryland voters to potentially approve a new 8D-0R congressional map for 2028. https://t.co/80ikvLrVUZ 50.8K views · 497 likes · 88 reposts · 19 replies Open on X →
Believable. And early September. Sand below 50% too. Keep watching the trend as R leaning voters wake up for the election season. 4.7K views · 133 likes · 8 reposts · 10 replies Open on X →
If Taylor Swift endorses the Democrats again, this surely can get close like 2018… https://t.co/r6ulDUqHlW 5.3K views · 81 likes · 0 reposts · 2 replies Open on X →
Targoz Market Research / Beacon Center of Tennessee poll | 8/15-8/26 LV Tennessee statewide races 2026 Tennessee Governor 🟥Marsha Blackburn 55% 🟦Jerri Green 34% — US Senate 🟥Bill Hagerty 58% (incumbent) 🟦Marquita Bradshaw 33% —— President Trump approval (Tennessee) https://t. 27.4K views · 52 likes · 9 reposts · 5 replies Open on X →
Midterm surprise? https://t.co/mDNalFK4lO 7.3K views · 147 likes · 5 reposts · 23 replies Open on X →
Elon shelling out the big bucks! ;) 9.3K views · 212 likes · 16 reposts · 14 replies Open on X →
First major Elon spending of 2026 👇 Texas Senate: 248k Maine Senate: 170k Ohio Senate: 106k New Hampshire Senate: 91k Iowa Senate: 55k Michigan Senate: 26k Alaska Senate: 17k PA-8: 13k PA-10: 12k PA-7: 12k NJ-7: 11k NY-17: 11k VA-2: 10k WI-3: 10k FL-25: 9k 19.8K views · 94 likes · 8 reposts · 7 replies Open on X →
@earlyvotedata Ok, so you had Michigan for Trump which I did not as I took it off his board at the last moment as I caught up with the media that Trump slipped in the last week. Truth is, with private polling, he didn't. Real surprise here was Wisconsin voting to the left of Mich 488 views · 3 likes · 0 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →
@earlyvotedata You can't do this. You can't simply post your detailed results and take accountability, that'd be the end of the polling industry man. 1.3K views · 6 likes · 0 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →
@earlyvotedata Super impressive. 1.4K views · 6 likes · 0 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →
2024 Total Predictions Summary: 11/8 Presidential: 17/17 Correct Calls. Got 312 Electoral Votes Swing State Miss Average: 1.05% Total State Miss Average: 1.13% Senate: 7/9 (waiting on AZ Senate for 10th) Calls Correct Swing State Miss Average: 1.08% Total State Miss Average: 969.1K views · 243 likes · 19 reposts · 11 replies Open on X →

Rispetto ad account della stessa dimensione

12 post degli ultimi 90 giorni, accanto alla fascia di 10K–100K follower. arriva a più persone rispetto ad account della stessa dimensione.

Visualizzazioni mediane6 364questo account924mediana per 10K–100K
Copertura, %47.60%questo account3.62%mediana per 10K–100K
Interazione, %1.75%questo account1.52%mediana per 10K–100K
MetricaQuesto accountMediana per 10K–100KRapporto
Visualizzazioni mediane per post6 3649246.89×
Copertura (visualizzazioni ÷ follower)47.60%3.62%13.2×
Tasso di interazione1.75%1.52%1.15×

Altri account di questa fascia →   Confronta con un altro account →   Come sono costruiti questi parametri →

Growth & engagement

How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.

Views per post

1.3K9 Nov
48817 Mar
19.8K3 Sep
9.3K
7.3K
27.4K
5.3K
4.7K
50.8K
5.5K
13.6K4 Sep
3.7K
1.8K
1.9K

Last 14 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.

Engagement rate per post

0.52%9 Nov
0.82%17 Mar
0.57%3 Sep
2.61%
2.41%
0.27%
1.57%
3.18%
1.24%
1.00%
0.99%4 Sep
4.29%
1.94%
4.16%

Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views. Median for 10K–100K accounts is 1.52%.

What the audience does

Likes80.3%1 853 in total
Reposts8.3%191 in total
Replies5.5%128 in total
Quotes2.6%59 in total
Bookmarks3.3%76 in total

Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.

The follower curve appears once this account has two daily snapshots — we take one a day, and this one is on its first.

Account simili