Ernie Tedeschi ✓
@ernietedeschi · joined 13 Apr 2009
Personal account. Chief economist at @Stripe. Former Director of Economics at @The_Budget_Lab. Former Chief Economist at @WhiteHouseCEA.
41 471Followers
2 371Following
18 506Posts total
408.6KViews on collected posts
Ultimi post
Cerchiamo nuovi post…
Annualized real data center investment was nearly 4x 2022 levels in 2026 Q2.
Non-data-center private investment in structures was *down* 5% from 2022 levels. https://t.co/XJTi7blL1Q
8K views · 70 likes
· 20 reposts · 2 replies
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I talked about this on Politix this week, but I think Trump is getting snowed by data center industry people who've got him reading the GDP accounting identities and ignoring the fact that AI-related construction is crowding out other stuff.
https://t.co/qIUlFR9qJQ https://t.co
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@ernietedeschi Agree @ernietedeschi but even less likely is that we could have a +1% rise in trend productivity growth sustained for a long time without interest rates rising 1-for-1 with that increase in returns to investment.
So, growing out way out of it requires something mor
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I lived a bunch of places in the US growing up and DC was by far my favorite of them as a kid. Decades later as a father, was excited to raise my own kids here.
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Interesting story: number of kids in DC jumps 10% https://t.co/v7ioT4SMaQ
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For comparison, here is @USCBO's potential total factor productivity growth measure during the 1995-2005 dot com boom.
We **peaked** at a ~ +1pp boost to TFP growth for three years: 1999 thru 2001. The other dot com years were still above pre-boom growth but short of +1pp. http
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You would need an extra full percentage point of additional total factor productivity growth every year for the next 10 years just to stabilize debt-to-GDP.
It's plausible we may get that magnitude of boost from AI for *some* years. But I would not bet we get that for *ten* years
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Another sign that the economic effects of AI are still early: real wages for nonmanagers in the software industry have risen 10% in the last three years, but haven't broken out of their prior ~2015 level highs (yet) and haven't risen as sharply as they did in the late 90s (yet)
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@ernietedeschi @marthagimbel @stripe Congrats (no limitations on posting right 🤞?)
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@ernietedeschi @stripe CONGRATULATIONS ERNIE!
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@ernietedeschi @stripe Congratulations! Now we can talk on your next podcast appearance about stablecoins!
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Some professional news.
Excited to start today as chief economist at @Stripe. Looking forward to working with & learning from the brilliant people there to produce data-centered insights and research.
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Rispetto ad account della stessa dimensione
8 post degli ultimi 90 giorni, accanto alla fascia di 10K–100K follower. arriva a molti, ma pochi di loro reagiscono.
Visualizzazioni mediane7 001questo account924mediana per 10K–100K
Copertura, %16.88%questo account3.62%mediana per 10K–100K
Interazione, %0.76%questo account1.52%mediana per 10K–100K
| Metrica | Questo account | Mediana per 10K–100K | Rapporto |
|---|---|---|---|
| Visualizzazioni mediane per post | 7 001 | 924 | 7.58× |
| Copertura (visualizzazioni ÷ follower) | 16.88% | 3.62% | 4.66× |
| Tasso di interazione | 0.76% | 1.52% | 0.50× |
Altri account di questa fascia → Confronta con un altro account → Come sono costruiti questi parametri →
Growth & engagement
How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.
Views per post
192.4K17 Nov
3.9K
1.5K
812
6K31 Aug
41.7K
2K
117.3K1 Sep
3.6K
325
31.2K2 Sep
8K
Last 12 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.
Engagement rate per post
0.64%17 Nov
0.33%
1.32%
1.23%
1.06%31 Aug
0.70%
0.45%
0.37%1 Sep
0.81%
1.85%
0.21%2 Sep
1.19%
Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views. Median for 10K–100K accounts is 1.52%.
What the audience does
Likes81.9%1 974 in total
Reposts5.7%137 in total
Replies4.1%99 in total
Quotes2.1%51 in total
Bookmarks6.1%148 in total
Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.
The follower curve appears once this account has two daily snapshots — we take one a day, and this one is on its first.
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