Forecasting Research Institute @Research_FRI · 31 Mar 2026
In a rapid AI progress scenario—which economists assigned a 14% probability to—economists expect much larger effects: • Annual GDP growth: 3.3% in 2030, 3.5% in 2050 (roughly comparable to 1992–2001) • Total factor productivity growth: 2% in 2030, 2.5% in 2050 (close to
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