Kevin Patrick Murphy @sirbayes Β· 12 Aug 2026
**3/ Novelty 1 β the π-open setting** What if the *true* mechanism isn't in your hypothesis set? Vanilla Bayes can only shuffle probability among the candidates you already have. MDA runs an **out-of-sample predictive check**; if the best model fails it, the LLM proposes *new* https://t.co/0vUKFUaCId
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