Colby Badhwar ✓
@ColbyBadhwar · Toronto, Ontario · joined 20 Feb 2016
✍️ analysis @InsiderEng, @CEPA, & @Tochnyi; news @ArchivesDefense | Procurement, arms sales & security assistance➡️🇺🇦🇮🇱🇹🇼 | DMs open for inquiries
44 999Followers
610Following
50 871Posts total
4.6MViews on collected posts
Posts recentes
Procurando novos posts…
Transmittals:
https://t.co/tZK0wt3blt
https://t.co/3NLBZJzRSP
12.8K views · 47 likes
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@ColbyBadhwar That's a huge teşekkür ederim to Turkey for helping Ukraine out in this time of need.
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❗️🇹🇷🇺🇸🇺🇦 The US State Department has approved the Third Party Transfer of 70 M39 ATACMS, 12 M270 MLRS, 2,524 M26 DPICM MLRS rockets, and 47,000 M509A1 203mm DPICM howitzer rounds from Turkiye to Ukraine.
The two TPT cases were formally notified to Congress this past Monday. The
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Those were rough days for the THAAD program. https://t.co/bvbOOPwtTh
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Good news: THAAD interceptors ordered by the Biden administration, whose top 3 priorities were "China, China, and China," are finally showing up.
Bad news: Fewer than 100 were officially requested during that administration's tenure.
Thankfully, more were included via https://
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🇺🇸🇺🇦 The US Army had a RFI out for a second seeker source for PAC-3 MSE and that seemingly went nowhere. Instead Boeing is scaling production to meet the 2000/year target for MSE AURs.
Suggests that establishing a second source wasn't practical.
In any case, MSE was never in
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· 58 reposts · 18 replies
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Boeing and others in the PAC-3 and PAC-3 MSE industrial base and supply chain own most of the IP for the missile. The US government can buy that IP and technical baseline if either of those are willing to sell or they could force Boeings hand by threatening qualifying a second
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🇺🇸🇺🇦🇷🇺 Hopefully we learn more about this kill in the near future.
I've said in the past that it would likely take a series of pilot errors for a Russian jet to get downed by one of Ukraine's F-16s. They remain heavily disadvantaged due to their inferior radar. https://t.co/vHX
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Joint Chiefs Chairman Dan Caine notes Ukraine recently had its first "air-to-air kill," when a Ukrainian F-16 shot down a Russian fighter.
"So I think their ability to scale their layered defense has come along a long way over the past couple years," Caine said.
169K views · 562 likes
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@ColbyBadhwar What has to be done to Ukraine's HIMARS to allow them to fire ATACMS? Is it just a software update?
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If you found this thread informative, I would only ask that you like/share it, give @tochnyi & myself a follow, and make a donation to a Ukrainian charity of your choice.
10.8K views · 414 likes
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Finally, I must thank @michaeldweiss, who needs no introduction and no explanation of his efforts for the Ukrainian cause.
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There are many others I could name, but won't in the interest of brevity. I must recognize @DrPaulyDeSantis though, for always sending me tips, @HelloMrBond for providing me the opportunity to appear on his show and @balancedlife808, for always having words of encouragement.
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Acknowledgements:
My thanks go out to my colleagues at @tochnyi, chief among them @John_A_Ridge & @CasualArtyFan, without whom this thread would not have been possible. Thank you to @FRHoffmann1 as well, who's own writings have provided me with valuable information.
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The situation clearly isn't nearly as dire as anonymous DoD officials are telling the media. If the US takes no action, they will have 1654 missiles in 16 months. They can absolutely afford to spare, at a bare minimum, the FY14 procured 63, which will expire in 3 years. (68/72)
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· 26 reposts · 1 replies
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Giving Ukraine 200 missiles would be very impactful, and still leave 938 available for deployment in Korea and elsewhere. Meanwhile, 566 missiles are still being delivered at an estimated rate of approximately 30/month. That's 1454 missiles by the end of next year. (67/72)
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Now, there has been a myriad of reporting that the DoD doesn't want to give any of them up. I won't get too deep into the specifics of what they might need them for, but I will say the suggestion that it pertains to Taiwan is not particularly compelling. (63/72)
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For now, we have to assume the worst though, which is that the expired inventory is unusable, leaving only 1138 available. Which brings us to the question, how many of those could be plausibly given to Ukraine? 200, is a reasonable number, in my view. (62/72)
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No other munition which Ukraine has, or could conceivably receive, would be even close to as effective against a target like this. Just another example of how disastrous of a decision it is to abandon conventional cluster munitions. (61/72)
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· 26 reposts · 4 replies
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The SLEP planned to start with M39s before moving to A1s, so I'm assuming that all refurbished missiles were drawn from the former. This is important because although missiles may be officially expired, they may still be serviceable as is, or with minor work done to them. (57/72)
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I should note that the two P-1s above cast tremendous doubt on the proposition reported in the media that the DoD "discovered" some ATACMS they didn't know they had. The Army had a precise accounting of it's expired inventory and planned on refurbishing all of it. (55/72)
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Every system has limitations, ATACMS included. They are not particularly suitable for destroying hard targets, like bridges. For this, the best missile is the 🇸🇪/🇩🇪 Taurus KEPD 350 ALCM. If 🇺🇦 wants to destroy the Kerch Bridge, they need Taurus. (42/72)
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As it stands Ukraine is already still many months away from having any operational F-16s. ATACMS can be delivered immediately without any lengthy training required. They are Ukraine's only realistic option for engaging TSTs. (40/72)
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If Ukraine is going to "fight like NATO" as so many generals, both armchair and actual, believe they must, then they need to be equipped like NATO. ATACMS is without a doubt a much-needed capability for them to have. They are not a panacea though. (41/72)
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The US Armed Forces Commander’s Handbook for Joint Time-Sensitive Targeting identifies ATACMS and fixed wing aircraft as the preferred systems for engaging TSTs at long range. However it notes that aircraft require a permissive threat environment, which Ukraine lacks. (36/72)
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These are all targets that are dangerous and/or fleeting. They are mobile and can displace long before a subsonic ALCM could target them. Subsonic ALCMs are currently Ukraine's only option for striking any target at long range though, time sensitive or not. (35/72)
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Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG travels at a top speed of Mach 0.8, so if the target is at maximum range, then you're looking at 20-25 minutes of travel time. All in it could take two hours to hit a target once it's coordinates have been acquired. (32/72)
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ALCMs are inherently the least responsive long range strike capability, because they require route planning, need to be loaded onto an aircraft, and then flown to a launch location closer to the front line, as to maximize their potential range. This all takes time. (30/72)
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The former is a subsonic Air Launched Cruise Missile (ALCM), the latter is a ground launched hypersonic quasi-ballistic, manoeuvring missile. They have comparable ranges, and are both high precision weapons, but their similarities end there. (29/72)
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Em comparação com contas do mesmo porte
9 posts dos últimos 90 dias, ao lado da faixa de 10K–100K seguidores. aparece para muita gente, mas poucos desses espectadores reagem.
Mediana de visualizações49 669esta conta1 043mediana para 10K–100K
Alcance, %110.38%esta conta3.67%mediana para 10K–100K
Engajamento, %0.74%esta conta1.68%mediana para 10K–100K
| Métrica | Esta conta | Mediana para 10K–100K | Proporção |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mediana de visualizações por post | 49 669 | 1 043 | 47.6× |
| Alcance (visualizações ÷ seguidores) | 110.38% | 3.67% | 30.1× |
| Taxa de engajamento | 0.74% | 1.68% | 0.44× |
Outras contas desta faixa → Comparar com outra conta → Como estas referências são construídas →
Growth & engagement
How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.
Views per post
9.7K18 Sep
9.9K
10.8K
10.5K
12.7K
169K21 Jul
28.8K
64.7K1 Aug
49.7K
51.9K4 Aug
17.2K5 Aug
324.3K8 Aug
2.7K
12.8K
Last 14 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.
Engagement rate per post
3.03%18 Sep
3.14%
4.14%
1.97%
0.35%
0.39%21 Jul
1.64%
0.27%1 Aug
0.97%
0.68%4 Aug
0.96%5 Aug
0.74%8 Aug
1.12%
0.39%
Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views. Median for 10K–100K accounts is 1.68%.
What the audience does
Likes88.4%12 504 in total
Reposts6.7%949 in total
Replies1.3%177 in total
Quotes0.7%105 in total
Bookmarks2.9%407 in total
Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.
The follower curve appears once this account has two daily snapshots — we take one a day, and this one is on its first.
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