Philip E. Tetlock ✓

@PTetlock · Philadelphia, PA · joined 03 Oct 2011

Penn-Integrates-Knowledge (PIK) Professor, Wharton & School of Arts & Sciences. Likes = interesting; Retweets = very interesting; Interesting ≠ endorsement

47 873Followers

647Following

2 684Posts total

98.5KViews on collected posts

Последние посты

Philip E. Tetlock ✓@PTetlock30 Jul

there is a surprisingly big cognitive-stylistic gap between people who say "certainly" versus "almost certainly--and zero versus .001 Granularity matters. 6.3K views · 31 likes · 5 reposts · 3 replies Open on X →

Philip E. Tetlock ✓@PTetlock29 Jul

The only people claiming any theory was “proven” were those insisting a lab leak could be ruled out altogether using words like dispositive, debunked, conspiracy theory, zero evidence etc. I’ve used words like “almost certainly” about a lab leak and “probable” and “likely” but 16.7K views · 309 likes · 41 reposts · 18 replies Open on X →

Philip E. Tetlock ✓@PTetlock13 Jul

Brace yourself for the next wave of questions: what do the emerging AI superforecasters think about the predictions of the human experts and superforecasters on the risks of AI? Game theory run amok. 4.6K views · 15 likes · 3 reposts · 0 replies Open on X →

Philip E. Tetlock ✓@PTetlock30 Jun

What do experts and superforecasters predict about the potential risks from AI? In the latest wave of the Longitudinal Expert AI Panel (LEAP), we asked for predictions on: • Major harm from an AI-related event • Catastrophic risk from AI (and from all causes) • Government https 6.6K views · 30 likes · 9 reposts · 3 replies Open on X →

Philip E. Tetlock ✓@PTetlock31 Mar

Examining the quality of the methodology & participants--& depth of the questions-- this study is the most ambitious subjective-probability forecasting exercise I've ever seen. Agree or disagree with the conclusions, this is a state-of-the-art benchmark to beat 47.6K views · 179 likes · 40 reposts · 2 replies Open on X →

Philip E. Tetlock ✓@PTetlock23 Feb

A recurring forecasting failure (you can almost take this one to the bank). 6.1K views · 28 likes · 4 reposts · 5 replies Open on X →

Philip E. Tetlock ✓@PTetlock20 Feb

Variants of this question are popping up a lot nowadays: How much should the moral character of an artist or scholar or scientist sway our assessments of the value of their creative output? 10.6K views · 47 likes · 4 reposts · 13 replies Open on X →

Philip E. Tetlock ✓@PTetlock7 Dec 2022

While Marx's wife was pregnant, he impregnated their housemaid. To hide this from Marx's wife so she wouldn't get angry, Engels pretended he was the father. Then they gave the kid away. Both Marx and Engels abandoned him, pretending the kid didn't exist. https://t.co/imbZ76TjBY h 0 views · 3.8K likes · 682 reposts · 74 replies Open on X →

Growth & engagement

How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.

Views per post

10.6K20 Feb

6.1K23 Feb

47.6K31 Mar

6.6K30 Jun

4.6K13 Jul

16.7K29 Jul

6.3K30 Jul

Last 7 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.

Engagement rate per post

0.60%20 Feb

0.60%23 Feb

0.47%31 Mar

0.68%30 Jun

0.39%13 Jul

2.23%29 Jul

0.62%30 Jul

Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views.

What the audience does

Likes64.3%639 in total

Reposts10.7%106 in total

Replies4.4%44 in total

Quotes0.7%7 in total

Bookmarks19.9%198 in total

Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.

The follower curve appears once this account has two daily snapshots — we take one a day, and this one is on its first.

Последние посты

Growth & engagement

Views per post

Engagement rate per post

What the audience does

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