Philip E. Tetlock ✓

@PTetlock · Philadelphia, PA · joined 03 Oct 2011

Penn-Integrates-Knowledge (PIK) Professor, Wharton & School of Arts & Sciences. Likes = interesting; Retweets = very interesting; Interesting ≠ endorsement

47 861Followers

646Following

2 684Posts total

558.7KViews on collected posts

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4 posts from the last 90 days, next to the 10K–100K follower range. shown widely, but few of those viewers react.

Metric	This account	Median for 10K–100K	Ratio
Median views per post	6 430	2 743	2.34×
Reach (views ÷ followers)	13.44%	8.91%	1.51×
Engagement rate	0.65%	1.64%	0.40×

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there is a surprisingly big cognitive-stylistic gap between people who say "certainly" versus "almost certainly--and zero versus .001 Granularity matters. 6.3K views · 31 likes · 5 reposts · 3 replies 30 Jul 2026 The only people claiming any theory was “proven” were those insisting a lab leak could be ruled out altogether using words like dispositive, debunked, conspiracy theory, zero evidence etc. I’ve used words like “almost certainly” about a lab leak and “probable” and “likely” but 16.6K views · 309 likes · 41 reposts · 18 replies 29 Jul 2026 Brace yourself for the next wave of questions: what do the emerging AI superforecasters think about the predictions of the human experts and superforecasters on the risks of AI? Game theory run amok. 4.6K views · 15 likes · 3 reposts · 0 replies 13 Jul 2026 What do experts and superforecasters predict about the potential risks from AI? In the latest wave of the Longitudinal Expert AI Panel (LEAP), we asked for predictions on: • Major harm from an AI-related event • Catastrophic risk from AI (and from all causes) • Government https 6.6K views · 30 likes · 9 reposts · 3 replies 30 Jun 2026 Examining the quality of the methodology & participants--& depth of the questions-- this study is the most ambitious subjective-probability forecasting exercise I've ever seen. Agree or disagree with the conclusions, this is a state-of-the-art benchmark to beat 47.6K views · 179 likes · 40 reposts · 2 replies 31 Mar 2026 We completed the most comprehensive study of how economists and AI experts think AI will affect the U.S. economy. They predict major AI progress—but no dramatic break from economic trends: GDP growth rates similar to today's and a moderate decline in labor force participation. h 383.1K views · 645 likes · 190 reposts · 20 replies 31 Mar 2026 A recurring forecasting failure (you can almost take this one to the bank). 6.1K views · 28 likes · 4 reposts · 5 replies 23 Feb 2026 I have underestimated to what extent people interested in politics believe the good guys are perpetually on the verge of defeating the bad guys once and for all. here is Rush Limbaugh in 1993 predicting the imminent implosion of liberalism: https://t.co/NRs5blQPc4 77.1K views · 1.4K likes · 106 reposts · 171 replies 22 Feb 2026 Variants of this question are popping up a lot nowadays: How much should the moral character of an artist or scholar or scientist sway our assessments of the value of their creative output? 10.6K views · 47 likes · 4 reposts · 13 replies 20 Feb 2026 While Marx's wife was pregnant, he impregnated their housemaid. To hide this from Marx's wife so she wouldn't get angry, Engels pretended he was the father. Then they gave the kid away. Both Marx and Engels abandoned him, pretending the kid didn't exist. https://t.co/imbZ76TjBY h 0 views · 3.8K likes · 682 reposts · 74 replies 07 Dec 2022

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