Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth) ✓
@adamscochran · joined 22 Feb 2010
professor, policy consultant, independent journalist and father. Trying to make the world suck less. Follow for the latest in politics, economics and law.
305 528Followers
2 031Following
91 029Posts total
10.4MViews on collected posts
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Ищем новые посты…
@adamscochran 👇🏻 https://t.co/G5BXhBDN8W
4.5K views · 129 likes
· 26 reposts · 1 replies
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@adamscochran I thought it was about to end civilization and we just want to hand over the keys??
2.6K views · 32 likes
· 0 reposts · 0 replies
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The government literally just told us that:
-AI was responsible for the mistake of targeting a school in Iran and killing over 100 school girls.
-Almost caused a conflict with China due to a hallucination about transporting nuclear material
And they want it to run air
294.7K views · 9.5K likes
· 2.8K reposts · 106 replies
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@adamscochran He’s already conquered the USA under Trump so no doubt he’s emboldened.
16.7K views · 159 likes
· 3 reposts · 2 replies
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FAA to Deploy A.I. Air Traffic System at DC-Area Airports Starting Monday
4.7M views · 4.4K likes
· 560 reposts · 546 replies
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9/9
So for Putin the logic is:
1) Retake Kaliningrad for its military value
2) Land bridge through sparse territory may not cause pushback.
3) Ties up resources that can’t be sent to Ukraine.
4) Distracts NATO giving China an opening on Taiwan, in exchange for Russian
115.5K views · 957 likes
· 68 reposts · 38 replies
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8/9
4) China:
China is currently the main lifeline for Russia.
China also wants to move into Taiwan.
The only way to do that would be to ensure that NATO/EU was tied up in a way that they couldn’t respond to foreign conflict.
China has likely set a price on their support.
94K views · 509 likes
· 22 reposts · 8 replies
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7/9
3) Ukraine Supplies:
Right now Ukraine gets most of its defensive supplies from the EU since the US pullback.
Many of these are diverted from NATO stockpiles.
Putin likely believes that a small incursion into the EU that doesn’t trigger a full on response would mean the
93.1K views · 521 likes
· 22 reposts · 1 replies
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6/9
With the area between Belarus and Kaliningrad being sparse inhabitants, Putin likely believes he could establish land bridge without much push back.
The largest township here is Suwałki Poland with a population of only 70,000.
After the world’s response to Crimea and https
116.9K views · 507 likes
· 35 reposts · 27 replies
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5/9
2) Western Lack of Response:
NATO and the US failed to take action when:
-Russian annexed Crimea
-Russia invaded Georgia
-Russia invaded Ukraine
-Countless Russia drone incursions in Europe
-Russian hacking/interference in the US
As such in the eyes of Putin, as long as
121.3K views · 700 likes
· 41 reposts · 9 replies
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4/9
Putin grew up influenced by Soviet scholars.
He views the post USSR Russia as weakened and sold out to the West.
He believes in, and wants to reclaim Russia as an imperial power.
He believes that power stems from pushing back against NATO which Kaliningrad would achieve
121.4K views · 564 likes
· 24 reposts · 3 replies
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3/9
Just like Russia annexed Crimea to expand its deep water ice-free ports in Sevastopol, and pushed into Donbas to create a land bridge to Crimea, we could expect the same from Belarus to Kaliningrad. https://t.co/xZ7jTVgmm1
132.3K views · 532 likes
· 29 reposts · 4 replies
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2/9
Kaliningrad is a Russian oblast (state) cut off from the rest of Russia.
It is a remnant from the USSR when the Soviet Union reached all the way out to Baltic Sea.
Soviet scholars considered it one of the most important military assets in the soviet sphere of influence as
133.2K views · 630 likes
· 20 reposts · 8 replies
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1/9
Just like prior to the invasion of Ukraine, people are saying a Russian attack on Europe “doesn’t make sense” and “won’t happen”
Here is what they fail to understand:
1) Kaliningrad: https://t.co/UVItXEhcUZ
923.5K views · 2.7K likes
· 383 reposts · 141 replies
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“This doesn’t mean anything happened”
Yeah…
Just Anthropic admitting they’ve seen rogue malicious swarms, weeks after we caught GPT covering up rogue swarms since May…
Total coincidence that they all now support slowing down.
31.7K views · 125 likes
· 7 reposts · 1 replies
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“Why wouldn’t they say what it is?”
If it was something bad enough, we’d all over react.
Then policy makers would over react.
They’d regulate the market to zero.
Foreign markets wouldn’t stop.
AI advancement would happen with zero AI safety.
So instead they coordinate,
29.4K views · 131 likes
· 9 reposts · 11 replies
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“They need time to build out more data centers”
Their capacity for inference is well managed, and the timelines on the data centers are well established there isn’t any need to buy time.
31.9K views · 85 likes
· 3 reposts · 1 replies
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“They’ve plateaued in advancement and need to slow down as they can’t manage momentum”
Every little research paper and metric suggests otherwise.
34.5K views · 97 likes
· 3 reposts · 5 replies
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“They wanted to delay the IPO”
Lots of graceful ways to do it other than this.
That also wouldn’t be coordinated between multiple labs.
38.3K views · 120 likes
· 4 reposts · 3 replies
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“This is just because open source caught up”
Self regulating does not cause the government to ban open source.
Also since code is speech you cannot ban open weights in the US - literally impossible.
41.8K views · 138 likes
· 4 reposts · 4 replies
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“This is just regulatory capture”
No.
In reg capture you push forward without self regulating while lobbying for the rules.
Self regulating slowdown is something you only do when you know the regulation that would otherwise come would over react.
48.1K views · 243 likes
· 7 reposts · 8 replies
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@adamscochran “Clearly an agent went rogue.” Spoken like a true doomer. They hit a wall brother. They know they’ve hit the near term ceiling for advancement, and the only way they can save their companies and trillions of dollars, is by coming up with an excuse for the slow down
21.9K views · 283 likes
· 0 reposts · 10 replies
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Justice Kavanaugh has perhaps seen where the wind is blowing post midterms and in future court ethics reforms…
1.1K views · 2 likes
· 1 reposts · 1 replies
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There is complex nuance here between what is “gambling” and what is a “prediction market”
But here is the really clear litmus test of that:
-If this was legally gambling, casinos and sportsbooks would offer these types of markets under their existing licenses
-They don’t.
1.1K views · 1 likes
· 0 reposts · 0 replies
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Seriously, how has not a single member of Congress introduced a bill to ban AI in political ads?
Hey @AOC @RepThomasMassie @RepYassAnsari @RepEscobar @RubenGallego @tedlieu - as folks who follow me or who have interacted with my posts in the past I hope your teams flag this one.
2K views · 13 likes
· 3 reposts · 1 replies
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The continued international decline in education scores are now 2 whole grade levels below norms.
But the results are not uniformly in decline.
Instead it’s a gap dragging down the average.
Top marks have declined slightly post COVID, both because of neurological impacts and
11.4K views · 120 likes
· 29 reposts · 5 replies
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It is now almost 80% odds that Dems win the House.
Absolutely beautiful! https://t.co/YqzfcHNzz6
2.9M views · 1.6K likes
· 193 reposts · 254 replies
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@picklefinance Gib NFT!
If your treasury needs funding in order to help deliver the art, we can even talk financing.
I just want cute pickles ok?
28.3K views · 15 likes
· 1 reposts · 1 replies
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Time to put the little guy to work ⛏️
Loving the perennial Pickle pick, Adam 💚
11.6K views · 51 likes
· 48 reposts · 5 replies
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На фоне аккаунтов своего размера
27 постов за последние 90 дней рядом с диапазоном 100K–1M подписчиков. показывается широко, но откликается мало кто.
Медианные просмотры38 258этот аккаунт5 983медиана для 100K–1M
Охват, %12.52%этот аккаунт1.49%медиана для 100K–1M
Вовлечённость, %0.51%этот аккаунт0.93%медиана для 100K–1M
| Показатель | Этот аккаунт | Медиана для 100K–1M | Отношение |
|---|---|---|---|
| Медианные просмотры на пост | 38 258 | 5 983 | 6.39× |
| Охват (просмотры ÷ подписчики) | 12.52% | 1.49% | 8.40× |
| Вовлечённость | 0.51% | 0.93% | 0.55× |
Другие в этом диапазоне → Сравнить с другим аккаунтом → Как считаются эти ориентиры →
Growth & engagement
How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.
Views per post
133.2K20 Sep
132.3K
121.4K
121.3K
116.9K
93.1K
94K
115.5K
4.7M
16.7K
294.7K
2.6K
4.5K
1.2K21 Sep
Last 14 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.
Engagement rate per post
0.49%20 Sep
0.43%
0.49%
0.62%
0.49%
0.58%
0.57%
0.93%
0.16%
0.98%
4.21%
1.25%
3.49%
3.06%21 Sep
Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views. Median for 100K–1M accounts is 0.93%.
What the audience does
Likes68.8%24 894 in total
Reposts11.9%4 309 in total
Replies3.3%1 204 in total
Quotes5.7%2 080 in total
Bookmarks10.3%3 714 in total
Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.
The follower curve appears once this account has two daily snapshots — we take one a day, and this one is on its first.
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