Nate Silver ✓

I think the critique of "bothsidesism" is often overused but this is a good example of it, NYT commenters are rationally reacting to her staffers being a bunch of snowflakes. 55.9K views · 270 likes · 8 reposts · 8 replies Open on X →

I think most reasonably well-adjusted people would read this and feel pretty sympathetic toward Peltola rather than her annoying staffers. 163.2K views · 1.7K likes · 90 reposts · 69 replies Open on X →

Don't really understand why Brock Purdy doesn't get more love. Our QB model rating him so highly feels like a hot take, but he's just incredibly efficient on a game-by-game basis. https://t.co/UnzzGYcnoA

53.8K views · 393 likes · 17 reposts · 51 replies Open on X →

just a classic comment section story: Anger, confusion, dismay the self selecting people on this site don’t want anything negative about their preferred side! 80.8K views · 54 likes · 5 reposts · 26 replies Open on X →

Nate Silver ✓@NateSilver53823 Sep

I feel like this has been one of our more underrated charts. If you throw out voters who *weakly* approve or disapprove of Trump's performance and only look at *strong* approval/disapproval, his net approval rating is -29, even worse than his overall -22. https://t.co/NkMXtMvjVz

105.5K views · 1.2K likes · 111 reposts · 33 replies Open on X →

Nate Silver ✓@NateSilver53823 Sep

A money advantage is one of the few things that Republicans have going for them this cycle. But is it really as big as it's cracked up to be? Ds have a big advantage in individual contributions, especially in the Senate. Rs have a big edge in outside money and party money. 64.2K views · 671 likes · 38 reposts · 38 replies Open on X →

Nate Silver ✓@NateSilver53822 Sep

Pangram is a cool technology but I don't really like how it's being deployed in the Discourse and any model's performance on a training set is going to differ from it's reliability in a real-world setting where it's suddenly hard to externally validate. 54.1K views · 117 likes · 3 reposts · 17 replies Open on X →

Nate Silver ✓@NateSilver53822 Sep

Here's a map showing where regular gas prices have increased the most. https://t.co/hCgpTbxw8E

127.7K views · 1.3K likes · 147 reposts · 38 replies Open on X →

Nate Silver ✓@NateSilver53822 Sep

Polls for Republicans are just getting worse by the day in a way that isn't actually all that common in midterms. It's gotta be mostly the gas prices, although maybe AI anxieties are also reverberating negatively for the GOP. Model update out soon. 559.2K views · 6.2K likes · 472 reposts · 272 replies Open on X →

Keith idk what "oil" (by which I presume you mean gas) is gonna be by Election Day. But if you think it's gonna be $2.90/gallon then you have some massively profitable trades to make! Please let us know how it goes! 426.7K views · 4.1K likes · 85 reposts · 50 replies Open on X →

@NateSilver538 you still can’t read an election. for the life of you. and what are u going to do when oil is $2.90 on election day? 424K views · 55 likes · 0 reposts · 158 replies Open on X →

Then why did it cost $2.90 before we invaded Iran but $4.50 now this is like arguing against a goldfish who hasn't acquired object permanence https://t.co/bCQDf7tVRo

580.3K views · 10.9K likes · 477 reposts · 111 replies Open on X →

@NateSilver538 the real reason is we stopped building refineries in 1977 for stupid left wing reasons and cancelled two pipelines. 691.1K views · 77 likes · 2 reposts · 195 replies Open on X →

OK Keith then why does gas cost $4.50 a gallon. https://t.co/bFgqiZp4NV

135.3K views · 772 likes · 16 reposts · 26 replies Open on X →

@NateSilver538 it was. over i. 3 days exactly as i articulated. 156.6K views · 18 likes · 0 reposts · 56 replies Open on X →

Always fun to periodically give a shoutout to people who thought the Iran war would be resolved within a few weeks. 152.8K views · 1.9K likes · 100 reposts · 41 replies Open on X →

In what respect was characterizing LLMs as "stochastic parrots" insightful, given that the paper seemed to vastly underestimate LLM capabilities? 101K views · 403 likes · 10 reposts · 39 replies Open on X →

This post has stayed with me bc I'm an author on the paper, and have worked on solutions for years -- because recognizing that LLMs are stochastic parroters is super helpful for pinpointing solutions. Here's a thread on solutions! 🧵 170.1K views · 386 likes · 53 reposts · 27 replies Open on X →

Nate Silver ✓@NateSilver53820 Sep

Move the Chargers back to San Diego. Or to Mexico City or something. They're kind of a liminal franchise at this point, the equivalent of an auxiliary airport terminal. 55.4K views · 897 likes · 35 reposts · 43 replies Open on X →

Nate Silver ✓@NateSilver53820 Sep

So yeah, the expert ratings don't make any sense. They're assuming roughly a D +2 or D +3 national environment. That's inconsistent with pretty much all the current and historical evidence. While I'd never rule out a systematic polling error, that shouldn't be your baseline. http

224K views · 1.5K likes · 106 reposts · 27 replies Open on X →

Nate Silver ✓@NateSilver53819 Sep

Another very good forecast update for Democrats today. Now up 7.8 on the generic ballot or 8.6 on the likely-voter version. That is deeply into wave territory. https://t.co/QeW78xAUeo

148.9K views · 2K likes · 277 reposts · 94 replies Open on X →

Nate Silver ✓@NateSilver53819 Sep

One political problem for AI labs is that they can't articulate an optimistic medium-term future that sounds broadly good for humanity without also sounding incredibly weird, having huge wealth/power disparities, or both. 347.1K views · 1.8K likes · 101 reposts · 105 replies Open on X →

LOL what is even happening with these polls. Other polls don't show the same result and our model is skeptical (though this poll hasn't been added yet) but basically every poll since Labor Day has just been radioactively bad for Republicans. 503.9K views · 2.1K likes · 120 reposts · 99 replies Open on X →

Advanced Targeting Research poll | 9/13-9/16 RV US Senate Idaho 2026 ⬜️Todd Achilles 50.1% 🟥Jim Risch 38.5% (incumbent) —— ⬜️Todd Achilles 45.5% 🟥Jim Risch 39.4% (incumbent) 🟨Matt Loesby 4.5% (This survey was not commissioned by any candidate in this race) Link to poll: https

1M views · 883 likes · 89 reposts · 67 replies Open on X →

Painful to watch as a Lions guy, but like how the Charging Buffalo was sort of literally jumping off the chart here to signify the Bills' great offense. https://t.co/IkjYK1qhVH

97.6K views · 297 likes · 10 reposts · 21 replies Open on X →

Trump running on lower gas prices and no more foreign wars and then starting a war with Iran that literallly everyone except Pete Hegseth knew was going to be a quagmire has to be on the shortlist for dumbest political blunders in American history. 1.3M views · 14.7K likes · 1.7K reposts · 514 replies Open on X →

Part of the divide in opinions on AI capabilities is that it's only made modest progress on wordcel-type tasks and is still very mid. vs. having gotten much better at shape-rotator tasks. So if you're only using it for wordcel tasks, it's easier to say "what's the hype about?" 146K views · 706 likes · 22 reposts · 64 replies Open on X →

I wrote about how the polling shows a supermajority for AI regulation, despite it very much not seeming that way on this platform. https://t.co/HVWorb6Ldk

97.3K views · 406 likes · 33 reposts · 92 replies Open on X →

They don't pay (or maybe they do, but I've never asked) and I didn't go to Manifest 2026 because I was way behind on a bunch of our models and thought the World Series of Poker would be a more fun use of my limited leisure time! 65.7K views · 147 likes · 1 reposts · 8 replies Open on X →