Seedy19 ✓

@seedy19tron · joined 28 Dec 2021

Biotech • sometimes not long enough, sometimes not short enough • Tweets are not investment advice Substack Sponsorship enquiries: seedy19@yahoo.com

23 586Followers

1 523Following

5 591Posts total

1.8MViews on collected posts

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Seedy19 ✓@seedy19tron17 Sep

Bump $bhvn 9.1K views · 27 likes · 0 reposts · 0 replies Open on X →

Seedy19 ✓@seedy19tron17 Sep

The full $nktr write up , reminder that $lly have to be careful here with a DOJ transcript order on the docket. Setup is as good as they get. Verdict + AA durability + BD STACK ‘Em Oh and this one is COMPLETELY FREE for all to read. https://t.co/tbHRi6EHOe 10.8K views · 92 likes · 4 reposts · 10 replies Open on X →

Seedy19 ✓@seedy19tron17 Sep

@A_May_MD on a roll today. Kudos to him for keeping a sane head amidst the absurdity. I am writing the full review ahead of the $nktr verdict tomorrow/ Monday. But compelled to share here beforehand that within a 4 week window you have a +50% or greater stacked opportunity with 14K views · 81 likes · 2 reposts · 3 replies Open on X →

Seedy19 ✓@seedy19tron17 Sep

Something fundamentally broken for $abcl and $mrna to be up like this. Cant even be happy that $vera and $abvx getting some love. AT what price ☠️ 15.8K views · 46 likes · 0 reposts · 16 replies Open on X →

Seedy19 ✓@seedy19tron10 Sep

Added more $bhvn in the $12s read through the 8k filings SK has no walk right for the hold. There is no standalone "terminate for MAE" clause. $bhvn position is that a rodent metabolite finding already submitted to regulators makes a regulatory pause reasonably foreseeable so 18.9K views · 51 likes · 1 reposts · 0 replies Open on X →

Seedy19 ✓@seedy19tron2 Sep

@seedy19tron Rational but how long will it take to bleed there? 1.1K views · 4 likes · 0 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →

Seedy19 ✓@seedy19tron2 Sep

Bottom line $mrna is a declining, cash burning, serially litigated vaccine company wrapped around one real but singular oncology data point.. whilst being priced as though the platform is already validated across every tumor that matters. The melanoma win earned a re rate; it

3.3K views · 22 likes · 0 reposts · 4 replies Open on X →

Seedy19 ✓@seedy19tron2 Sep

What $MRNA is actually worth. Forget all the journos twerking. Even crediting INT generously, the bear case lands far below the tape…because the vaccine base is worth little.. $MRNA keeps only half of INT, and the read across the stock embeds is unproven. $mrna is an option ht

3.4K views · 13 likes · 0 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →

Seedy19 ✓@seedy19tron2 Sep

Also below capital structure and summary. Remember a $950m Genevant/Arbutus patent settlement hits Q3, with a further $1.3b contingent riding on a pending Federal Circuit §1498 ruling. https://t.co/1xJxBwqfoY

1.2K views · 11 likes · 0 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →

Seedy19 ✓@seedy19tron2 Sep

The cleanest case study re if this platform generalises is $bntx autogene cevumeran… the same individualized mRNA neoantigen concept. Its 2 randomized trials have both failed including one that you must have recently heard about. ICYMI: A few days ago, $bntx terminated its htt

1.5K views · 11 likes · 0 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →

Seedy19 ✓@seedy19tron2 Sep

Understanding that melanoma is the easy cancer A neoantigen vaccine needs neoantigens. Those come from mutations. Melanoma (UV) and lung (tobacco) carry the highest mutational burden of any solid tumor an abundant, high quality target pool in an immunologically "hot" 1.5K views · 10 likes · 0 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →

Seedy19 ✓@seedy19tron2 Sep

The choke points: TESLA / Cell 2020 - The TESLA consortium benchmark found only ~2% of computationally predicted neoantigens are actually immunogenic. The models mostly succeed by filtering out the 98% that don't work. 2. Reported prediction AUCs >0.85 largely measure peptide 1.5K views · 10 likes · 0 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →

Seedy19 ✓@seedy19tron2 Sep

If you want to understand the trade more you can continue reading Overview of the asset INT is a genuinely elegant piece of engineering. A pts tumor is resected and sequenced (whole exome + RNA seq)…. a proprietary algorithm predicts and ranks the neoantigens most likely to 1.6K views · 10 likes · 0 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →

Seedy19 ✓@seedy19tron2 Sep

How do you trade a setup like this? Short with a but cover incrementally. So trim the first tranche in the $120s ($50 higher than non risk adj melanoma fundamental line). $70s non risk adj melanoma fundamental line + a declining vaccine franchise + melanoma only INT credit. 1.9K views · 12 likes · 0 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →

Seedy19 ✓@seedy19tron2 Sep

Why $mrna is mispriced 1. Melanoma is the easy tumor. Highest mutational burden of any solid cancer -> the most neoantigens -> the best case for a neoantigen vaccine. The TAM lives in lowTMB tumors where the mechanism is unproven 2. The platform doesn't read across …yet. $bntx 4.2K views · 16 likes · 1 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →

Seedy19 ✓@seedy19tron2 Sep

The bull case and points I concede/ respect: 1. The adjuvant melanoma data are real.. Ph2b HR 0.51 held to 5 years and the Ph 3 crossed a high interim bar 2. personalised therapy plausibly resists a conventional loss of exclusivity, supporting a higher multiple if revenue 2.2K views · 11 likes · 0 reposts · 2 replies Open on X →

Seedy19 ✓@seedy19tron2 Sep

Last month , $mrna and $mrk announced that the Ph 3 trial of intismeran autogene (INT, mRNA4157) + Keytruda hit at a pre specified interim in resected melanoma. $mrna went from $62.96 to an intraday ~$163 and now sits near $154, a ~$36b increase in market value on a PR that 5.8K views · 19 likes · 0 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →

Seedy19 ✓@seedy19tron2 Sep

The $60B+ science project $mrna ***blockbuster short thesis*** $mrna nearly 3x’d on one interim melanoma readout. The tape is priced for a platform. The science is priced for one tumor. Target price: $30 (80%+ downside) Market cap: $61.8B Sell side median: $122.5 (SP 26% above) 1.7M views · 557 likes · 27 reposts · 50 replies Open on X →

เทียบกับบัญชีขนาดเดียวกัน

18 โพสต์จาก 90 วันที่ผ่านมา เทียบกับช่วง 10K–100K ผู้ติดตาม แสดงในวงกว้าง แต่มีผู้ชมตอบสนองน้อย.

ยอดดูมัธยฐาน3 352บัญชีนี้924ค่ามัธยฐานของ 10K–100K

การเข้าถึง, %14.21%บัญชีนี้3.62%ค่ามัธยฐานของ 10K–100K

การมีส่วนร่วม, %0.61%บัญชีนี้1.52%ค่ามัธยฐานของ 10K–100K

ตัวชี้วัด	บัญชีนี้	ค่ามัธยฐานของ 10K–100K	อัตราส่วน
ยอดดูมัธยฐานต่อโพสต์	3 352	924	3.63×
การเข้าถึง (ยอดดู ÷ ผู้ติดตาม)	14.21%	3.62%	3.93×
อัตราการมีส่วนร่วม	0.61%	1.52%	0.40×

บัญชีอื่นในช่วงนี้ → เปรียบเทียบกับบัญชีอื่น → ค่าอ้างอิงเหล่านี้คำนวณอย่างไร →

Growth & engagement

How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.

Views per post

1.9K2 Sep

1.6K

1.5K

1.2K

3.4K

3.3K

1.1K

18.9K10 Sep

15.8K17 Sep

14K

10.8K

9.1K

Last 14 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.

Engagement rate per post

0.70%2 Sep

0.67%

0.71%

0.72%

0.82%

0.98%

0.41%

0.79%

0.45%

0.28%10 Sep

0.40%17 Sep

0.62%

0.98%

0.30%

Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views. Median for 10K–100K accounts is 1.52%.

What the audience does

Likes76.1%1 003 in total

Reposts2.7%35 in total

Replies7.2%95 in total

Quotes0.2%3 in total

Bookmarks13.8%182 in total

Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.

The follower curve appears once this account has two daily snapshots — we take one a day, and this one is on its first.

โพสต์ล่าสุด

เทียบกับบัญชีขนาดเดียวกัน

Growth & engagement

Views per post

Engagement rate per post

What the audience does

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